Anticipating wildfires: New AI-enhanced risk intelligence

In recent years, “wildfire weather” has emerged as a critical concept in disaster management. Catastrophes like the Lahaina wildfire in Hawai‘i, the California Palisades fire, and Canada’s wildfire disaster of 2023, illustrate the need for a fundamental shift in preparedness and planning...

By Chani Goering

05/06/2026

Albania leverages PDC’s DisasterAWARE risk intelligence technology during a multi-agency wildfire exercise in 2024. The exercise was part of a larger wildfire disaster management capacity-building partnership between the U.S. Forest Service, PDC, and participating Balkan nations.

Photograph: Pacific Disaster Center (PDC)

In recent years, “wildfire weather” has emerged as a critical concept in disaster management. 

Catastrophes like the Lahaina wildfire in Hawai‘i, the California Palisades fire, and Canada’s wildfire disaster of 2023, illustrate the need for a fundamental shift in preparedness and planning that leverages advanced technologies for early awareness about wildfires and wildfire weather. Understanding and anticipating wildfires is no longer optional; it is foundational to effective preparedness, response, and resilience.

One of the deadliest and largest recorded wildfires in U.S. history, the 2023 Lahaina wildfire in Hawai‘i, was fanned by a combination of weather conditions, including drought, 67 mph winds, and downslope gusts.

Photograph by Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via ABC News 

“Saving lives and protecting communities from wildfires depends on decisions made in moments of uncertainty. That’s why it’s essential for emergency managers to have trusted data, actionable insights, and rapid analysis of risks all in one place—so they can move quickly, prioritize effectively, and stay ahead of evolving threats like wildfire weather,” said Dr. Erin Hughey, Deputy Executive Director of Pacific Disaster Center (PDC).

“…it’s essential for emergency managers to have trusted data, actionable insights, and rapid analysis of risks all in one place.”

From technology to action: DisasterAWARE

To address this growing challenge, PDC has released several new advanced technologies that leverage advanced modeling and artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance global wildfire detection, wildfire weather monitoring, and risk assessment through its early warning and risk intelligence platform, DisasterAWARE.

“Through our partnership with NASA, we are now continuously receiving remotely sensed satellite data from around the world and integrating it into DisasterAWARE to gain a clear picture of where fires are burning and how they’re spreading. We analyze this information to determine the level of threat, track the fire’s progression, and augment information with artificial intelligence to issue alerts and analytics in near real-time,” said PDC’s Director of Applied Science Dr. Joseph Green.

“This is especially powerful during peak fire weather when multiple simultaneous ignitions and rapid wind shifts can overwhelm manual monitoring or become dangerous for flyovers. It also fills critical knowledge and monitoring gaps that exist in remote geographies or areas with lower capacity for observation and early warning.”

DisasterAWARE offers capabilities that enhance wildfire weather and risk awareness by integrating multiple datasets and robust monitoring tools to tackle the triad of wildfire behavior such as weather, fuel, and topography. These come together into a unified operational picture that supports the full disaster management lifecycle and enables better anticipation, analysis, and response to wildfire threats.

NASA detects wildfires globally using satellite sensors like VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), providing near real-time data through its FIRMS web application that continuously feeds DisasterAWARE. These aggregated, active-fire observations from multiple satellite sensors are enriched by PDC to distinguish sensed data from non-wildfire heat sources like power plants, volcanoes, and other environmental and urban heat sources.

Photograph by NASA

Global wildfire early warning with customizable Smart Alerts in DisasterAWARE

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NOAA Global Forecast System, 16-day surface temperature animated visualization in DisasterAWARE

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Daily Wildfire Initial Spread Index (ISI) expected rate of fire spread displayed in DisasterAWARE.

Wildfire Event Brief impact analytics in near real-time via DisasterAWARE

Global wildfire hotspot intensity and progression, and U.S. weather station data in DisasterAWARE

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Air Quality Index (U.S. only) hourly update from the Environmental Protection Agency in DisasterAWARE

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7 essential tools to maximize readiness now

1. Preconfigure Smart Alerts

Disaster managers should set up Smart Alerts in DisasterAWARE to ensure their notifications are ready to fire the moment a wildfire is detected.

Take our quick online tutorial for instructions on Smart Alert setup.

2. Integrate critical asset information into DisasterAWARE

To protect the safety of assets and receive alerts about threats to essential systems that communities depend on, be sure to integrate your critical asset data using our secure protocols.

Take our in-depth online training course on critical asset and infrastructure protection.

3. Monitor wildfire risks in real time

Learn how to track and monitor wildfire risks using real-time weather observations, forecast wildfire weather, and modeled risk information from one location. Below are some examples of forecast and observational data available in the system:

  • Drought Conditions (Global): Identify regions where prolonged dryness increases fuel vulnerability.
  • Extreme Heat (Global): Identify where wildfire may be intensified or strain response systems.
  • Winds (Global): Monitor changing wind conditions that can alter fire direction instantly.
  • Wildfire Hotspot Intensity Grid (Global): Identify wildfire hotspots and intensity and track the spread of wildfire.
    Air Quality Index (Global): Monitor smoke impacts on public health through visualized smoke-impact footprints and remotely sensed air quality data that put vulnerable populations at risk far beyond the flames themselves.
  • Wildfire Weather Stations (U.S.): Provide localized, ground-based weather observations.
4. Get automated wildfire analysis with Event Brief

Get automated wildfire analysis of who and what is in the path of a wildfire with Event Brief,  surfacing the highest-priority risks and predictive analytics so you can focus on action, not data gathering. Event Brief provides rapid analysis of where the fire is, how it has progressed, and who and what is at risk. Using AI to rapidly analyze raw fire detection data and translate the information into immediate impact analytics, decision makers get potential impacts to population and critical infrastructure within minutes.

5. Exercise complex wildfire events with DisasterAWARE

Use DisasterAWARE to replicate complex wildfire events for multi-agency exercises, such as multi-jurisdictional tabletop and fully functional exercises—ensuring agencies are not building situational awareness from scratch during a crisis.

6. Assess and anticipate wildfire risks before they happen

Leverage advanced wildfire risk models and historical data to assess wildfire threats and inform planning and recovery from wildfires. Below are examples of just some of the authoritative data available in DisasterAWARE:

  • Wildfire Weather Index (Global): Assess combined fire risk based on weather patterns
  • Wildfire Initial Spread Index (Global): Estimate how quickly a fire may expand after ignition
  • Historical Wildfire Impacts (Global):
  • Wildfire Suppression Difficulty Index (U.S.): Evaluate challenges responders may face in controlling fires
  • Wildfire Burn Probability (U.S.): Predict areas most likely to experience fire activity and identify rapidly escalating zones

7. Encourage your community to download the free Disaster Alert Mobile App

Encourage your community to download PDC’s free Disaster Alert app to remain alert about wildfire threats in their locations.

PDC’s Free Disaster Alert™ Mobile App

All-hazard forecasts for the public—free

At the public level, PDC’s Disaster Alert™ mobile app extends the life-saving intelligence DisasterAWARE directly to communities worldwide. Delivering authoritative, real-time hazard alerts across all major threat types, the app empowers individuals to take protective action when it matters most—augmenting emergency services during peak response periods and strengthening overall community resilience.

[IMAGE: Disaster Alert app on smartphone showing active tropical hazard alerts]

Disaster Alert covers all major natural hazard types:
• Tropical cyclones
• Flooding
• Tsunamis and high surf
• Earthquakes
• Volcanoes
• Wildfires
• Severe storms and tornadoes
• Drought and extreme heat
• Winter storms
• Landslides
• and More…


No subscription required: Free on iOS and Android

Photograph by PDC

A new standard for wildfire risk intelligence

Wildfires are no longer isolated incidents, but part of a broader, systemic hazard profile. Environmental conditions that influence the ignition, behavior, and spread of wildfires must be taken into consideration. Key factors include:

  • Drought conditions that dry out vegetation, creating abundant fuel
  • Low humidity that accelerates combustion
  • High winds that rapidly spread flames and embers
  • Heatwaves that intensify fire behavior and strain response systems
  • Topography (slope, aspect, and terrain) that influences fire intensity, direction, rate of spread, and accessibility
  • Early detection that supports early action

DisasterAWARE brings together information about these converging factors, which create environments where fires ignite more easily, burn more intensely, and spread more unpredictably—often in places densely populated or previously considered lower risk.

“Wildfire weather represents a shift in how we understand and manage fire risk—from reactive suppression to proactive intelligence. As conditions continue to evolve, so must the tools and strategies used to address them,” said PDC’s Dr. Hughey.

“By integrating global data, predictive analytics, and real-time ignition detection into DisasterAWARE, PDC has built a powerful tool to empower emergency and disaster managers to stay ahead of wildfire threats—transforming uncertainty into actionable insight.”

In a world where wildfire weather is growing in threat to populations and critical infrastructure, preparedness depends on visibility, speed, and informed decision-making. With the right tools in place, agencies can move from reacting to disasters to anticipating them—and ultimately, building more resilient communities.

“As conditions continue to evolve, so must the tools and strategies used to address them.”

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ABOUT PDC

Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) is a leading scientific innovator of global risk reduction science and technology. As a University of Hawai’i applied science and research center, our work intersects with a variety of government, community, academic, and scientific organizations at home and around the world to build resilience to natural and man-made hazards—enhancing the capacity to quickly and accurately anticipate and prepare for new and emerging threats. Our innovations in multi-hazard early warning systems, predictive analytics, data science, and machine learning provide decision-makers with the powerful tools and insights they need to navigate today’s complex and interconnected risk landscape.

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