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Tropical Storm Melissa continues to move slowly in the central Caribbean, with a Hurricane Watch in effect for Haiti’s southern peninsula and a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica. Based on the latest forecast, hurricane conditions could begin impacting Haiti late Thursday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica starting late Thursday or Friday.
Through Saturday, Melissa is expected to bring 5–10 inches of rain to southern Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and eastern Jamaica, with locally higher amounts. 2–4 inches are possible in northern Hispaniola and western Jamaica. 1–3 inches are forecast for Aruba and Puerto Rico. Flash flooding and landslides remain a major concern.
There is still significant uncertainty in Melissa’s track and intensity. Stay alert for forecast changes and continue to monitor DisasterAWARE for updates.
>>> Download the FREE Disaster Alert app (Search "Disaster Alert" in Google Play and the iOS App Store)
>>> Are you a disaster manager or humanitarian assistance professional? Access DisasterAWARE Pro at DisasterAWARE.pdc.org
#SaferWorld #EarlyWarningforAll #caribbean #storm #tropicalstorm #hurricane #weather #alert #DisasterAWARE #DisasterAlert #melissa #Jamaica #Haiti
CDEMA - Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency
U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)
ODPEM
ODM - Office of Disaster Management, Dominica
Tropical Storm Melissa has formed in the central Caribbean, prompting a hurricane watch for Haiti and a tropical storm watch for Jamaica. Hurricane conditions are possible in Haiti starting Thursday, while Jamaica could begin to see tropical storm conditions Thursday or Friday, based on this current forecast.
Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend, bringing the risk of flash flooding and dangerous landslides. Shown in the DisasterAWARE screenshots are potential wind impacts and rainfall for the current 5-day forecast.
There is significant uncertainty in Melissa’s forecast track and strength. Stay alert for forecast changes and continue to monitor DisasterAWARE for updates.
>>> Download the FREE Disaster Alert app (Search "Disaster Alert" in Google Play and the iOS App Store)
>>> Are you a disaster manager or humanitarian assistance professional? Access DisasterAWARE Pro at DisasterAWARE.pdc.org
#SaferWorld #EarlyWarningforAll #caribbean #storm #tropicalstorm #hurricane #weather #alert #DisasterAWARE #DisasterAlert #melissa #Jamaica #Haiti
CDEMA - Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency
U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)
ODPEM
ODM - Office of Disaster Management, Dominica
We are closely monitoring AL98, a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea that has a high (80%) chance of development over the next 7 days and a medium (50%) chance over the next 48 hours.
While the system is still organizing, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for tropical cyclone formation as it moves westward into the central Caribbean.
Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds could begin affecting Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or storm could form during that time.
Monitor DisasterAWARE for updates and alerts!
>>> Download the FREE Disaster Alert app (Search "Disaster Alert" in Google Play and the iOS App Store)
>>> Are you a disaster manager or humanitarian assistance professional? Access DisasterAWARE Pro at DisasterAWARE.pdc.org
#SaferWorld #EarlyWarningforAll #caribbean #storm #tropicalstorm #hurricane #weather #alert #DisasterAWARE #DisasterAlert
CDEMA - Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency
U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)
Keeping a close eye on the Atlantic and Caribbean, as a disturbance located over 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands is expected to track westward across the central Atlantic over the next several days. Gradual development is possible, with a low (30%) chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days. Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend as it enters the Caribbean Sea.
Monitor DisasterAWARE for updates and alerts!
>>> Download the FREE Disaster Alert app (Search "Disaster Alert" in Google Play and the iOS App Store)
>>> Are you a disaster manager or humanitarian assistance professional? Access DisasterAWARE Pro at DisasterAWARE.pdc.org
#SaferWorld #EarlyWarningforAll #cyclone #storm #hurricane #weather #rain #alert #caribbean #DisasterAWARE #DisasterAlert
Sending a big Mahalo (thank you) to our partners in Ecuador!
It was great to be back in Ecuador this week as PDC continued work with the Secretaría Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos (SNGR) to advance the National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment (NDPBA). Held in Guayaquil from 13–14 October, this engagement builds on earlier meetings in Guayaquil and Manta.
The NDPBA is designed to promote risk-informed decision-making through evidence-based data and analytics, increase multi-agency coordination, and enhance disaster monitoring and disaster risk reduction initiatives.
During this visit, SNGR leadership and technical staff provided valuable updates and shared critical datasets for the Risk and Vulnerability Analysis and Disaster Management Assessment—including hazard zones, socio-economic indicators, critical infrastructure, and emergency services.
We value the continued collaboration with our Ecuadorian partners and look forward to returning in spring 2026 to share preliminary results ahead of the final event in May.
Learn more about PDC’s National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment at: pdc.org/NDPBA
#SaferWorld #EarlyWarningforAll #Ecuador #NDPBA #Preparedness #RiskReduction
Riesgos Ecuador
U.S. Embassy Ecuador
U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)
On today's International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction, we take a moment to recognize the vital work being done around the world to reduce risk and build safer, more resilient communities.
At PDC, we are proud to stand alongside our global partners—government agencies, humanitarian organizations, academic institutions, and scientific experts—who remain steadfast in their commitment to disaster risk reduction. Together, we are advancing solutions that address the complex and interconnected risks facing communities today.
For nearly 30 years, PDC has worked to strengthen disaster resilience by helping partners identify, assess, and reduce risk, while enhancing their ability to anticipate, prepare for, and respond to crises. Our capabilities and programs, including the National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment (NDPBA), provide decision makers with actionable insight into the underlying drivers of disaster risk and the capacity to manage them.
From early warning to long-term risk reduction, we remain committed to supporting our partners as they integrate risk information into policies, systems, and actions that protect lives and livelihoods.
We commend your leadership and dedication!
#SaferWorld #EarlyWarningforAll #DisasterRisk #RiskReduction #iddrr2025 #drrday
The southern Philippines continues to experience multiple aftershocks following the recent powerful 7.4 magnitude earthquake that struck at around 9:43 AM local time on Friday morning. One of the aftershocks registered a strong magnitude of 6.7.
Attached are the PDC Event Briefs for the 7.4 and 6.7 magnitude earthquakes, along with a DisasterAWARE screenshot showing shaking intensity and the locations of aftershocks. Please monitor DisasterAWARE for the latest updates and alerts.
PhilAWARE, PDC's custom version of DisasterAWARE for the Philippines, was leveraged for early warning and situational awareness as the situation unfolded.
#EarlyWarningforAll #SaferWorld #Earthquake #Philippines #DisasterAWARE
Civil Defense PH
NDRRMC
A powerful coastal storm is expected to impact much of the U.S. East Coast from this weekend into early next week, bringing the risk of heavy rain, strong winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf.
The attached video shows modeled wind speeds and direction along the East Coast over the coming days. Be sure to monitor DisasterAWARE for updates and alerts as the event unfolds.
>>> Download the FREE Disaster Alert app (Search "Disaster Alert" in Google Play and the iOS App Store)
>>> Are you a disaster manager or humanitarian assistance professional? Access DisasterAWARE Pro at DisasterAWARE.pdc.org
#EarlyWarningforAll #SaferWorld #storm #rain #noreaster #flood #weather #DisasterAWARE
Tropical storm conditions are possible for parts of the northern Leeward Islands as the center of Jerry passes near or northeast of the islands later today and tonight. The Leeward and Virgin Islands could experience 2–4 inches of rain (maximum of 6 inches), bringing a risk of flash flooding.
The DisasterAWARE Pro screenshots highlight the most recent potential wind and rainfall impacts along the forecast track. These include the ‘Estimated Wind Impacts’ and 'Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Forecast (5-Day)' layers, as well as PDC’s automated Event Brief showing potential wind impacts and exposure for Barbuda.
Continue to monitor DisasterAWARE for updates with each new advisory! (Learn more at pdc.org/DisasterAWARE)
>>> Download the FREE Disaster Alert app (Search "Disaster Alert" in Google Play and the iOS App Store)
>>> Are you a disaster manager or humanitarian assistance professional? Access DisasterAWARE Pro at DisasterAWARE.pdc.org
#EarlyWarningforAll #SaferWorld #DisasterAWARE #DisasterAlert #storm #hurricane #hazard #preparedness #weather #alert #caribbean #atlantic
Sending Aloha to our partners in Honduras!
PDC returned to COPECO headquarters in Tegucigalpa to present the preliminary results of the Risk Reduction and Advanced Analytics (R2A2) project. Designed to support capacity building and promote evidence-based action, R2A2 builds on the National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment (NDPBA), previously conducted in partnership between PDC and the Government of Honduras. The project identifies capability enhancements aligned with current needs, helping national stakeholders better anticipate potential disasters, quickly mobilize resources, and promote risk-informed decision-making.
PDC and COPECO have a long-standing relationship through disaster response events, training, and exercises, and we look forward to further strengthening our partnership. PDC will return to Tegucigalpa in November for the Capstone event.
You can learn more about PDC’s National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment projects and capabilities at: pdc.org/NDPBA
#EarlyWarningforAll #SaferWorld #honduras #copeco #disasterpreparedness #R2A2 #NDPBA
COPECO
U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)
Embajada de Estados Unidos en Tegucigalpa
Monitoring Tropical Storm Jerry in the Atlantic, which is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it nears the northern Leeward Islands over the next 48 hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible, with heavy rain expected from Thursday into early Friday, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
The attached DisasterAWARE Pro screenshots display the ‘Estimated Wind Impacts' and 'Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Forecast (5 Day)' layers.
Continue to monitor DisasterAWARE for updates with each new advisory! (Learn more at pdc.org/DisasterAWARE)
>>> Download the FREE Disaster Alert app (Search "Disaster Alert" in Google Play and the iOS App Store)
>>> Are you a disaster manager or humanitarian assistance professional? Access DisasterAWARE Pro at DisasterAWARE.pdc.org
#EarlyWarningforAll #SaferWorld #DisasterAWARE #DisasterAlert #storm #hurricane #hazard #preparedness #weather #alert #caribbean #atlantic
A strong 6.6 magnitude earthquake has struck near Lae, Papua New Guinea. Attached are PDC’s initial impact estimates, automatically generated through our Event Brief and advanced analytics capabilities.
PDC Event Briefs are available through DisasterAWARE (pdc.org/DisasterAWARE) and provide rapid, actionable insights to support life-saving decisions and emergency response efforts. Event Briefs include critical information such as:
· Estimated exposed populations
· At-risk critical infrastructure
· Impacts to essential lifelines
· Key humanitarian needs
· Risk profiles, access to relevant products, and more
These rapid insights help quickly answer questions like: What happened? When and where did it happen? How bad is it?—empowering emergency management professionals and decision-makers with the information they need, when they need it most.
#EarlyWarningforAll #SaferWorld #Earthquake #PapauNewGuinea