According to Hughey, communities and infrastructure may be exposed to unusual levels of precipitation, winds, and secondary hazards. Pointing to the recent historic flooding disaster across Hawaiʻi in March 2026, Hughey emphasized this is just a preview of what similar or stronger El Niño-fueled storms could unleash on communities later this year.
Super El Niño hurricane risks include:
- More intense tropical cyclones fueled by dramatically elevated sea surface temperatures
- Anomalous storm tracks that expose communities to direct impacts from systems they rarely encounter
- Increased frequency of extreme precipitation leading to flash floods and landslides
- Higher storm surge potential due to warmer ocean conditions and altered atmospheric pressure patterns
- Extended and intensified rainfall seasons that saturate soils and overwhelm drainage infrastructure
Building the decision advantage before hurricane season arrives
“During a super El Niño season, storms can intensify quickly, shift faster than normal, and produce secondary, cascading hazards like floods, landslides, and damaging storm surge. Our unique multi-hazard monitoring and risk intelligence capabilities help disaster managers keep ahead of evolving threats and fill critical knowledge and monitoring gaps,” said PDC’s Director of Applied Science, Dr. Joseph Green.
Leveraging its scientific partnerships with NOAA, NASA, and a wealth of other authoritative data sources, PDC brings together forecast information for multiple hazards into its DisasterAWARE early warning platform. To support super El Niño hurricane preparedness, the platform provides real-time early-cycle hurricane forecast track analysis, wind and precipitation forecasts, information about sea surface temperature anomalies, probabilistic storm surge, and probabilistic flood and landslide information.
“We analyze a variety of hurricane and weather data using our all-hazard impact model (AIM) to determine the level of threat a hazard may pose. We then augment the information with our proprietary AI for Humanity technology to issue alerts and generate rapid analytics on impacts to populations and infrastructure in near real time.”