Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, September 27, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas.

Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Polo) is located about 280 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucus, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Rachel) is located about 305 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Nolo) is located about 355 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Surigae) is located approximately 79 NM east-southeast of Kadena AB

Northeast Pacific:   

Tropical cyclone 18E (Rachel) 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT REMAINS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO

According to the NHC advisory number 2 

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and it is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Central North Pacific:  

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Nolo) 

NOLO SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT MOVES WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS

According to the NHC advisory number 28

Nolo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected by tonight, with this general motion continuing through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nolo will remain well south and southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands but will approach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument early this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Nolo is predicted to strengthen into a major hurricane within the next day or so and reach its peak intensity by Monday. Weakening is expected in a couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND:

WIND: Strong and gusty winds are possible for the main Hawaiian Islands through today, although the core winds of Nolo will stay to the south.

RAINFALL: Rainfall and flooding threats are diminishing across the Big Island today with only scattered showers expected. For the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island, up to an additional inch of rainfall is possible. Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, no significant precipitation is expected.

STORM SURGE: The threat of significant storm surge has diminished, yet water levels along the coast will remain elevated through upcoming tide cycles due to persistent, dangerous wave action.

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are affecting exposed east- and south-facing shores of the Big Island and are expected to spread westward and build through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:

Invest 91E

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a broad area of low pressure, currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several days. The system is expected to move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Surigae) 

According to the JTWC warning number 18…sustained winds were 125 knots with gusts to 150 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts typhoon 25W (Surigae) as a robust and powerful system that recently rapidly intensified to 125 kts. 25W intensified 50 kts within the past 24 hours –strengthening from 75 kts at 261200z to 125 kts at 271200z — with an intensification of 30 kts in just the past 12 hours alone. This scale of intensification was unexpected, given that 25W still struggled to establish a cloud-free eye as recently as 6 hours ago.

The environment remains highly favorable, characterized by low (10-15 kts) vertical wind shear (vws), warm (29-30 c) sea surface temperatures, and robust dual-channel outflow.

TY 25W is forecast to continue tracking along the northwestern extent of the str centered to its east and
accelerate poleward for the duration of the forecast period. Additionally, 25W is expected to remain relatively compact for the rest of its lifespan. Beginning around 24 hours, vws is expected to increase to about 20 kts and induce dry air entrainment from the northern semicircle, Thus beginning the steady weakening trend from 24 hours onward.

25W is expected to cross the 26c isotherm between 72-96 hours, nearly simultaneous to the system entering the baroclinic zone and beginning jet interaction. VWS is expected to increase to over 30 kts by 72 hours, further compounding weakening. 25W is forecast to begin extratropical transition between 72 and complete transition no later than 96 hours.

Regarding intensity, 25W may continue to intensify for the next 6-12 hours, but is currently forecast to begin it’s terminal weakening trend at 12 hours. Should 25W continue to intensify beyond 12 hours, the terminal weakening could be further delayed. Regardless, 25W is forecast to weaken as it tracks poleward into increasingly hostile conditions before ultimately becoming an extratropical system.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather that’s being referred to as Invest 92W, which is located approximately 176 NM south-southeast of Yangon, Myanmar

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts an obscured low-level circulation center (llcc) with good mid-level rotation present just offshore Myanmar.

Environmental analysis indicates a marginal environment for development with low to moderate (15-20 kts) vertical wind shear, good equatorward and westward outflow aloft, and warm (28-29 c) sea surface temperatures, offset by the limited time over water.

Global deterministic and ensemble models indicate steady development over the upcoming 24 hours as the system transits northwestward off the coast of Myanmar over coastal water.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.