Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, October 4, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas.

Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Rachel) is located about 310 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja CA

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Nolo) is located about 325 miles west-southwest of Lisianski Island

Tropical Cyclone 26W (Choi-Wan) is located approximately 320 NM east-southeast of Iwo To

Northeast Pacific:   

Tropical cyclone 18E (Rachel) 

RACHEL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE

According to the NHC advisory number 30 

Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, and that motion is forecast to continue through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength are possible today, but Rachel is expected to slowly weaken beginning on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> South of Southern Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Central North Pacific:  

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Nolo) 

NOLO STRENGTHENS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD …FORECAST TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE WITHIN 12 HOURS

According to the NHC advisory number 56

Nolo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a general westward motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Nolo should cross the International Date Line later today in Hawaiian Time.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Nolo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, before a weakening trend begins around the middle part of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND:

SURF: Large swell associated with Nolo will continue to affect the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next few days. The surf will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls from Maro Reef to Lisianski Island.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 26W (Choi-wan) 

According to the JTWC warning number 19…sustained winds were 135 knots with gusts to 165 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts super typhoon 26W (Choi-wan) with a highly symmetrical central dense overcast surrounding a well-defined 19 NM eye. The presentation of the system appears to have peaked at around 040900z with the cold medium gray (cmg) shade in the dvorak enhanced ir imagery completely surrounding the eyewall.

At 041200z, the cmg has lessened as cloud tops have slightly warmed since the likely peak 3 hours earlier. The warming trend in the cloud tops is likely due to an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle (erc) that was confirmed by a 040957z gmi 37 ghz microwave image showing a clear moat feature surrounding the compact inner core.

26W is forecast to track generally northward along the western periphery of the str to the east through 36 hours. Near 36 hours, 26W will approach the steering ridge axis and begin to turn northeastward as it traverses the northwestern extent of the str. Track speeds will significantly increase starting at 48 hours,
once 26W gets picked up by a mid-latitude trough and interacts with the strong upper-level flow. Extratropical transition (ett) is forecast to begin at 60 hours and complete near 72 hours, once 26W becomes embedded underneath the jet, south of the Kamchatka Peninsula.

Iin terms of intensity, 26W is forecast to begin gradually weakening at a steady rate of 10 kts per 12 hours through 60 hours. The weakening trend may be augmented depending on the timing and severity of the erc. If the outer eyewall completely chokes the inner eyewall, then there is a potential for a more rapid rate of weakening. If the erc does not fully complete, then there is even a chance for brief redevelopment within the next 12 hours.

After 12 hours, ocean heat content will begin to drop, aiding in the weakening trend. Starting around 48 hours, sea surface temperatures will cool and westerly vertical wind shear will quickly increase, further supporting the weakening trend. Notably, 26W will tap into an extreme poleward outflow channel leading up to the completion of ett, supported by a very strong jet maximum to the north.

As a result, 26W is forecast to maintain typhoon intensity through the transition. At 72 hours, shear is expected to be well over 60 kts and dry air will be engulfing the vortex as the system transitions into a potent cold-core low.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 51 NM northwest of Kwajalein

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts 94W as a slowly consolidating low level circulation center (llcc) with convection building near the center. A 030910z ascat-b pass revealed a band of 15-20 knot winds wrapping around the northern periphery of the circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for development with low to moderate
vertical wind shear (15-20 kts), weak equatorward outflow aloft, and warm (29-30 c) sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in fair agreement that 94W will be quasi-stationary over the next 24 hours as it continues to consolidate.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.