Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, July 4, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 09W (Bavi) is located approximately 315 NM east of Andersen AFB

Tropical Cyclone 10W (Maysak) is located approximately 108 NM east of Hanoi, Vietnam

Northeast Pacific Ocean:  

Western East Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity.

Development of this system appears unlikely as it moves westward across the central and western portions of the East Pacific basin during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Western Pacific

Super Typhoon 09W (Bavi)

According to the JTWC Warning Number 15, sustained winds are 140 knots with gusts to 170 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a powerful super typhoon (sty) approaching the Mariana Islands. The central dense overcast and eye have degraded in the past six hours, with warming convective cloud top temperatures and a slightly cooler eye. The upper-level outflow remains robust and radial. a 040806z wsf-m mwi pass reveals a very thick inner core and a less circular upper-level eye. The 37 ghz image notably depicts multiple, incomplete lower-level rings surrounding the eye, which isindicative of a partial eyewall replacement cycle (erc). This observation is supported by the mperc algorithm from cimss, which gives a 68 percent probability of erc onset.

The environment continues to be highly favorable for maintaining a high-end storm, characterized by low vertical wind shear (vws), high ocean heat content exceeding 125 kj per square cm, and abundant deep-layer
moisture.

The forward motion of super typhoon 09W has veered slightly north of due west. The system will commence a
west-northwestward trajectory through the entirety of the forecast period, driven by a deep-layer str to the north. As sty Bavi escapes the grasp of a near-equatorial ridge, it will gain speed and reach 12-15 kts by 48 hours. The near-term intensity forecast has become more complex.

The environment will become even more favorable between 12 and 36 hours because an upper-level ridge will build eastward from the Ryukyu Islands and significantly enhance upper-level divergence on the western periphery of the vortex. The complication will come from the partial erc presented in the aforementioned microwave pass, which is a transient, unstable process, and two possible outcomes arise. Either the partial outer band will successfully wrap around the center and lead to a collapse of the inner eye, or the inner core will hold until the outer ring dissipates. Both scenarios will lead to weakening, which is reflected in the forecast at 12 hours.

The process will complete in the next 12-24 hours, and re-intensification will commence thereafter. Given the exceptional upstream environment and past over-performance of Bavi’s intensification phase in the past few days, the forecast calls for a new peak of 150 kts at 48 hours. An even higher peak closer to 160 kts is not out of the question.

Slow to gradual weakening will occur towards the latter part of the forecast period due to increasing vws. STY 09W will gradually expand in size, becoming an extremely massive circulation with gale-force winds extending out to 300 nm from the center by 120 hours. impacts will extend far from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 10W (Maysak)

According to the JTWC Warning Number 12, sustained winds are 50 knots with gusts to 65 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a consolidating circulation defined by deep convection wrapping over the southern and eastern side of the low-level circulation center (llcc). A 041139z ssmis pass showcases the curvature of the convection. The system has excellent equatorward exhaust, although the outflow is restricted on the poleward side due to the presence of moderate vertical wind shear (vws).

The environment has become unfavorable because the effects of high sea surface temperature and rich deep-layer moisture are more than offset by land interaction and moderate vws.

The mid-level str to the east is steering tropical storm 10W poleward, which is on the verge of making landfall along the border of China and Vietnam. The system will turn towards the northeast at 12 hours and maintain that motion until dissipation occurs at 36 hours .

TS Maysak has run out of time to intensify, given that the circulation will imminently lose its source of energy from the warm waters of the Gulf of Tonkin. Steady to rapid decay will commence due to the frictional and drying effects of land and result in dissipation by 36 hours.