By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, July 12, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no Tropical Cyclones
Northeast Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones
>>> Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next 2 or 3 days while the system moves generally west-northwestward, well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent
>>> Central and Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, primarily east of its center. This system is expected to move west-northwestward into less favorable environmental conditions during the next couple of days, and its development chances appear to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent
Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week or next weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclone
>>> Well South of the Hawaiian Islands:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days as it moves little, remaining well south of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent
>>> Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands:
Invest 90C
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southwest of the Hawaiian Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system and it could become a tropical depression later this week as it moves slowly northwestward, remaining southwest of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent
>>> Well South-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the south-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days as it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward, remaining southwest of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:
Western Pacific
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 97W, which is located approximately 110 NM northwest of Yap
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a mostly obscured, elongated and relatively disorganized low-level circulation (llc) with flaring convection primarily focused on the western flank. A 130006z ascat pass depicts the elongated circulation with a swath of 25 kt winds to the south of the center and pockets of 20kt winds to the northeast and southwest.
Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for development with moderate
poleward and equatorward upper-level outflow, low to moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 kts), and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 c).
Global models show 97W tracking generally northwestward as it rapidly consolidates over the next 24 hours but the gfs, ecmwf and navgem all show the system quickly dissipating within 48 hours. Ensemble models show a weak system tracking northwestward then turning northeastward after 48 hours while quickly weakening.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.