Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, October 9, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of America

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone Isaias…is located about 145 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River

Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Gulf of America:  

Tropical Cyclone Isaias

CENTER OF ISAIAS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST THIS EVENING…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA COASTS

According to the NHC advisory number 12

Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through this evening, followed by a northward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaias is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible through this afternoon, but Isaias is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall this evening.

Weakening is expected beginning tonight after Isaias makes landfall, and the storm is likely to become post-tropical by late Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

AL/FL Border to Grayton Beach, FL…6-9 ft
Grayton Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL…4-7 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL…4-6 ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border…4-6 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL…3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL…3-5 ft
Lower Mobile Bay…3-5 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…2-4 ft
Upper Mobile Bay…2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning this evening into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the next few hours. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning in the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.

Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas.

Flash and urban flooding is possible across the region, with considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be significant.

TORNADOES: A tornado risk will begin this afternoon and continue tonight in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

SURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and are spreading northward toward the Gulf Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.