Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, July 16, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical cyclone 05E (Elida)…is located about 770 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Northeast Pacific:  

Tropical cyclone 05E (Elida)

ELIDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY

According to the NHC Advisory number 10

Elida is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a northwestward motion through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Weakening is forecast to begin later this weekend and continue through early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of Baja California through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> Central and Western East Pacific:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by later this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the Eastern Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

>>> Eastern and Central East Pacific:

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the south of Mexico during the middle to latter part of next week. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves westward to west-northwestward across eastern and central portions of the Eastern Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands:

Invest 90C

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Johnston Atoll is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the east of its center. Some slow development of this system remains possible during the next day or so while it moves slowly northwestward toward the vicinity of Johnston Atoll. By this weekend, unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to limit any further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 320 NM south of Chuuk

Animated enhanced multi-spectral imagery and a 160310z amsr2 89ghz microwave image
depict a broad area of turning obscured by deep, flaring convection. Furthermore, a 152305z metop-c ascat image emphasizes the poorly organized cyclonic circulation of 90W.

Upper-level analysis indicates that 90W is in a favorable environment for development, with low (5-10 knot) vws, good divergence aloft, and warm (29-30c) sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 90W will continue to track generally north-northwestward, and ensemble models agree with the same notion. While the conditions are overall favorable, the lack of a distinct and defined llcc at this time will serve to limit potential development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W, which is located approximately 271 NM east of Iwo To

The system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts invest 91W with a fully exposed low level circulation center (llcc) and deep convection being sheared to the east-southeast.

Environmental analysis reveals marginal conditions for tropical development with moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 knots), moderate poleward (northeastward) outflow, and borderline (24-25 c) sea surface temperatures.

Deterministic models depict invest 91W with an asymmetric wind field that expands and elongates over the next 24 hours while transiting poleward into the midlatitude westerlies.

The system is expected to retain subtropical cyclone characteristics during this time before becoming fully embedded in the mid-latitude baroclinic zone and becoming extratropical.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.