Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, August 22, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas.

Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Lala) is located about 385 miles east-northeast of Kure Atoll

Tropical Cyclone 02C (Moke) is located about 470 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Saudel)…is located approximately 1025 NM east-southeast of Kadena AB

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Narra)…is located approximately 118 NM east of Hanoi, Vietnam

Tropical Cyclone 19W…is located approximately 543 NM west of Navsta Guam

Northeast Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Southwest of Mexico:

Invest 92E

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are starting to show signs of organization. This system is moving west-northwestward and is likely to become a tropical depression by the end of this weekend or early next week. This system is likely to merge with, or absorb, the disturbance to its west (EP91) by late Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

>>> Central East Pacific:

Invest 91E

A broad area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form before it merges with the disturbance to its east (EP92) by late Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent 
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent 

>>> Well Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:

Another area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle portion of next week. Some slow development is expected thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent

Central north Pacific:  

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Lala) 

LALA STILL A LARGE HURRICANE

According to the NHC advisory number 41…

Lala is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is expected to continue at a slower speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, and Lala’s winds could decrease below hurricane force by early Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Large surf associated with Lala will affect western sections of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument for the next couple of days. These large waves could inundate some low-lying atolls, especially from Maro Reef to Kure Atoll.

Moke is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm is expected to pass south of the Big Island of Hawaii tonight and early Sunday, then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today, but gradual weakening is forecast beginning Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

RAINFALL: Moke is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across the Big Island. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches are expected on eastern Maui. For the remainder of the islands, 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to affect exposed east and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands during the next few days. These swells may cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Saudel)

According to the JTWC warning number 17…Sustained winds were 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots

Now a typhoon, 17W has undergone rapid intensification (ri), with its intensity increasing by 30 kts in the past 24 hours.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts typhoon 17W (Saudel) with a slightly ragged eye that has continued to warm over the past 6 hours as it passes west of the northernmost Mariana Islands. The strongest convective activity is located within the western semicircle of the eyewall with a weakness in the northern semicircle. Animated water vapor imagery shows defined cirrus filaments expanding outward to the north, and is indicative of a strong poleward outflow channel.

17W has continued to rapidly intensify, now having intensified 35 kts over the past 24 hours.

Environmental analysis indicates that 17W is in a highly favorable environment characterized by robust poleward outflow aloft, low (5-10 kts) vertical wind shear, and very warm (30-31 c) sea surface temperatures.

TY 17W is forecast to track west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge to the northeast through 48 hours. Near 48 hours, the str is expected to merge with another str positioned over southern Japan. The combined steering influence of the ridging complex will keep 17W on a west-northwestward trajectory through 96 hours.

The timing of landfall over Okinawa has remained consistent with the previous forecasts, and is expected to occur just before 96 hours. Afterward, track speeds are expected to slow through 120 hours as the primary steering mechanism transitions to a subtropical ridge positioned over eastern China. A turn to the southwest, toward northern Taiwan is then likely in the extended forecast.

In terms of intensity, 17W is forecast to continue intensifying through 36 hours to a peak of around 130 kts as the environment remains highly conducive. After 36 hours, the poleward outflow channel will weaken and northwesterly shear will begin to increase, causing 17W to start on a gradual weakening trend as it  approaches Okinawa. Further weakening within the East China Sea is expected due to increasing shear and dry air induced by a strong ridge over eastern China.

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Narra) 

According to the JTWC warning number 8…Sustained winds were 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical depression 18W with deep flaring convection displaced to the west of the partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) over northeastern Vietnam. Cloud tops are measured to be nearly -90 c in some areas. surface observations from Bach Long Vi reported 29 kts from the west-northwest at 221200z, supporting the initial intensity of 30 kts with medium confidence. Cimss intensity estimates are analyzed to be overestimating the current intensity, likely due to the vigorous bursts of convection associated with the circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates that 18W is in a marginal environment characterized by weak equatorward outflow aloft, low to moderate (15-20 kts) northeasterly shear, and very warm (30-31 c) sea surface temperatures.

TD 18W is forecast to make a slow counterclockwise loop over the next 72 hours as the system remains placed within a competing steering pattern with ridging to both the north and south. In reality the actual track of 18W is likely to be highly erratic during this time. After 72 hours, 18W is forecast to be driven northward into southern China under the influence of the low-level flow.

The environment is expected to remain marginal with moderate northeasterly shear continuing to impact the vortex with
dry air entrainment from the south. However, these factors are offset by the very warm waters within the Gulf of Tonkin, which is forecast to allow for slight development over the next 36 hours.

Some models, such as ecmwf, show the northeasterly shear decreasing and the system remaining quasi-stationary over the Gulf of Tonkin. If the shear lessens, then further intensification is possible. As it stands, a peak intensity of 40 kts is forecast before 18W is driven north-northeastward into southern China. Dissipation over land is expected to occur around 96 hours, quickly after landfall.

Tropical Cyclone 19W 

According to the JTWC warning number 1…Sustained winds were 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a broad and poorly organized tropical depression (td) 19W, with the majority of the deep convection located in the northwestern quadrant. Over the last 6 hours, central convection has persisted and the outer banding has started to wrap tighter into a nearly fully obscured low-level circulation center (llcc).

Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for development, with warm (29-30 c) sea surface temperatures (sst), a good equatorward outflow channel, and low (10-15 kts) vertical wind shear (vws). The northwestern quadrant contains high moisture levels throughout the atmospheric column, however, much drier air surrounds the system to the east and northeast.

TD 19W is forecast to begin turning northward and northeastward under the steering influence of a ner centered to the east-southeast over the next 6 to 12 hours. Around 48 hours, a subtropical ridge to the northeast will take over as the primary
steering mechanism, resulting in td 19W turning northward and northwestward, transiting in the wake of typhoon 17W (Saudel).

Initially marginally favorable environmental conditions will result in slight intensification, with the system attaining 35 kts over
the next 12-24 hours. However, as td 19W transits northeastward and toward an upper-level low, the wind shear is expected to increase significantly, likely to 25-30 kts around 36 hours. At the same time, the system will encounter drier air, which will entrain into the core of the vortex. As a result, the intensity is expected to drop to 20-25 kts by 48 hours.

Afterward, the system will follow the tail end of the wind field belonging to typhoon 17W and will struggle to maintain vertical structure. Dissipation over water is expected no later than 72 hours, but is possible much earlier if the vws and dry air erode the structure of the storm sooner.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 120 NM north-northeast of Taiwan

The system is currently classified as a monsoon depression, generally characterized as a large cyclonic circulation, greater than 600 nm diameter, with enhanced winds over the southeastern periphery and a weak core of light winds.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a broad circulation partially obscured by convection building in the southeastern periphery of the circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals mostly conducive conditions for development with low to moderate (15 to 20 kts) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures (28 to 29 c), and good upper-level outflow.

Global models indicate that the broad circulation will struggle to consolidate into a tropical cyclone and ensemble models do not develop it into tropical cyclone strength in the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 32 knots.

Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.