Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, October 11, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas.

Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 20E (Simon) is located about 65 miles west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 27W (Koguma) is located approximately 341 NM east-northeast of Iwo To

Tropical Cyclone 28W is located approximately 378 NM east-northeast of Andersen AFB

Northeast Pacific:   

Tropical cyclone 20E (Simon) 

CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE SIMON NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO

According to the NHC advisory number 17

Simon is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or two. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to be very near the coast of west-central Mexico later today and remain close to the coast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While some weakening could occur, Simon is still forecast to move very near the coast of west-central Mexico as a major hurricane today. More significant weakening could occur if the core of Simon moves fully onshore or interacts with the higher terrain.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely beginning in the southern part of the Hurricane Warning, with hurricane conditions spreading northward later today into Monday.

RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center approaches landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> South of southern Mexico:

Invest 93E

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala, accompanied by some shower and thunderstorm activity. This system has become better defined since yesterday, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development. A tropical depression is expected to form well south of southern Mexico in a few days while the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Central North Pacific:  There are no Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 27W (Koguma) 

According to the JTWC warning number 27…sustained winds were 110 knots with gusts to 135 knots

Typhoon 27W continues to weaken as it tracks north-northwestward at 10 kts. Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a circular, clear eye measuring 20 NM in diameter embedded in a symmetric central dense overcast (cdo) with moderate radial outflow and strengthening poleward exhaust aloft. The cdo cloud top temperatures have gradually warmed and become less uniform, while the eye temperature has held steady at 16-17 degrees celsius. A 110811z gmi pass showed a convective ring surrounding a deteriorating inner eyewall,

Indicative of an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle (erc). TY 27W is now moving over a tongue of cooler sea surface temperatures (sst) of 26-27 degrees celsius and low ocean heat content (ohc) in an environment of low vertical wind shear (vws). the erc, coupled with marginal sst, is resulting in a gradual degradation of the convective structure.

TY 27W will continue to turn poleward along the western periphery of a deep-layer str, cross the ridge axis by 24 hours, and then begin to accelerate northeastward into the westerly flow. As the system gains significant latitude between 36 and 60 hours, an upper-level ridge will build over Kamchatka, shifting the main jet core farther north. As TY 27W accelerates poleward, it will remain south of the jet core but phase with the right-front entrance region of a 130-kt jet streak between 24 and 60 hours. This interaction will allow the system to retain tropical characteristics well into the mid-latitudes.

Extratropical transition (ett) will begin by 72 hours and complete by 96 hours. Steady weakening will continue in the short term as TY 27W undergoes erc and traverses waters with marginal sst and low ohc through 24 hours. This cooler water is associated with the cold wakes of former TY 26W and 15E. Thereafter, the vortex will cross the 26-degree celsius isotherm into much cooler waters.

VWS will begin to increase around 24 hours, reaching 30-40 kts by 48 hours. These conditions alone would lead to very rapid weakening. However, enhanced poleward outflow associated with the jet streak interaction will moderate the rate of weakening. The forecast calls for a slower weakening trend near the end of the forecast period as the system broadens and undergoes ett.

Tropical Cyclone 28W 

According to the JTWC warning number 1…sustained winds were 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96W, which is located approximately 177 NM east of Ujelang.

Multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a disorganized low level circulation, with flaring convection to the southwest. A 102303z ascat pass depicts 20-25 kt winds along the southern periphery of a cusp in the westerly wind burst. Satellite and scatterometer data indicates that 96W does not have a closed low-level circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable area for development with low vertical wind shear (10-15 kts), moderate radial outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30c).

Global deterministic and ensemble models depict steady development over the next 48 hours while the system tracks west-northwestward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13-18 knots.

Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1009 mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.