Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, August 27, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas.

Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Lala) is located about 610 miles north of Kure Atoll

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Saudel)…is located approximately 208 NM south-southeast of Shanghai, China

Tropical Cyclone 20W…is located approximately 230 NM southwest of Wake Island

Tropical Cyclone 21W (Etau) …is located approximately 180 NM north-northeast of Wake Island

Northeast Pacific:  

>>> Central East Pacific:

Invest 93E

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to support continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent 
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

>>> Western East Pacific:

Invest 94E

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands have become a little better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next days while the system drifts to the northeast, before turning westward this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

>>> Well offshore of Southwestern Mexico:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…80 percent

Central north Pacific:  

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Lala) 

LALA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD

According to the NHC advisory number 61…

Lala is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion is expected through today, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, Lala is forecast to cross the International Date line in about 30 h.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Lala is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight or Friday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

>>> Central Pacific:

An area of low pressure could form well south of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, well south-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Saudel)

According to the JTWC warning number 37…Sustained winds were 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots

Typhoon (ty) 17w is currently traveling west-southwestward at 06 kts. Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a system with a less organized central dense overcast (cdo) and restricted poleward outflow aloft. There have been no observations of the storm center by high-resolution microwave sensors since the 262340z ssmis and 262312z gmi
overpasses, both of which detailed an inner core eroded on the northeast side, a slight southward vortex tilt with height, and an oblong, 25-30 nm wide lower-level eye.

Given the persistent 20-25 kts of northerly shear, which has enabled plenty of dry air to entrain
into the circulation, these characteristics have likely persisted. in fact, radar imagery confirms this, showing that the entire north side of the eyewall has undergone significant structural erosion due to the shear. Fnally, a 270939z rcm-1 sar image estimated maximum sustained
winds of 77 kts.

The overall environment is unfavorable, with warm sea surface temperatures (sst) of 27-29 degrees celsius being strongly offset by moderate vertical wind shear (vws).

TY 17w will accelerate, doubling its translation speed to 12 kts by 24 hours, as it is captured by an anticyclone positioned south of Mongolia. This steering mechanism will drive the system on a west-southwestward trajectory, leading to a landfall over or near Wenzhou, China, as a strong tropical storm or low-end typhoon. while the system has just over 12 hours remaining over warm ocean waters, the combination of vws increasing to 25-35 kts and land interaction will lead to rapid weakening as it approaches the coast of central China.

This rapid decay will continue once inland, with dissipation predicted by 36 hours. As ty 17w approaches landfall, the overall wind field will contract due to the combined effects of dry air entrainment and persistent vws.

Tropical Cyclone 20W 

According to the JTWC warning number 6…Sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical storm 20w with an extremely compact and fully obscured low-level circulation center (llcc). The center is now embedded underneath an increasingly symmetric central dense overcast (cdo) with associated cloud tops measuring colder than -85 c in some areas. A 270727z rcm-2 sar pass showed a strikingly small circulation with a radius of maximum winds around 10 nm and a ring of 45-50 kts completely surrounding the center. A 271040z metop-c ascat pass allowed for high confidence in the initial wind radii, but was unable to measure the strongest winds due to the resolution limitations of the instrument.

TS 20w is forecast to track northeastward, along the southwestern extension of the str through 24 hours. Around 36 hours, the trajectory will become more northward as the system tracks along the western periphery of the str through 72 hours. After 72 hours, an upper-level trough is expected to dig in from the north and weaken the ridge. The trough will then interact with 20w and pull it further poleward. Subtropical transition is forecast to begin around 72 hours as the system crosses the 26 c isotherm and interacts with the strong mid-latitude trough.

Subtropical transition is then forecast to complete around 96 hours, once the system becomes completely embedded underneath the trough. Near 96 hours, binary interaction with 21w (etau)
will increase as the distance between the two circulations decreases. As a result, the exact track near the end of the forecast period could differ depending on the relative strength and distance between the two systems. The likelihood of the absorption of 20w within the wind field of 21w is looking less and less likely; however, it is still a possibility if 20w does not intensify as much as anticipated.

In terms of intensity, 20w is forecast to quickly intensify over the next 36 hours as the environment remains conducive. The compact nature of the vortex is highly susceptible to small changes in the environment, causing the intensity to potentially be extremely volatile as a
result. As it stands, a peak intensity of 85 kts is forecast to occur at around 48 hours. After 48 hours, westerly shear and dry air is expected to increase, causing the system to weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. Additionally, ocean heat content (ohc) will begin to significantly lower after 48 hours, further supporting the weakening trend.

Tropical Cyclone 21W (Etau) 

According to the JTWC warning number 3…Sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical storm 21w (etau) with curved convective banding along the eastern portion of the now obscured low-level circulation center (llcc). The wind field continues to appear asymmetric with the strongest winds located within the eastern semicircle, though ascat missed the system to confirm the winds near the core.

TS 21w (etau) is forecast to track generally northward, along the western periphery of the str to the east through 72 hours. After 72 hours, an upper-level trough is expected to dig in from the north, breaking down the steering ridge. This will cause track speeds to slow through 96 hours as the system moves northeastward. The interaction with ts 20w near the end of the forecast period could also cause the track of 21w to become erratic. Subtropical transition is forecast to complete near 96 hours as the system crosses the 26 c sst isotherm, becomes engulfed by dry air, and interacts with the strong mid-latitude trough.

Regarding intensity, 21w is forecast to gradually intensify through 36 hours, primarily due to the robust poleward outflow channel. Southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment is expected to
increase after 36 hours, causing the system to weaken through 96 hours as the system continues to track poleward. Additionally, ocean heat content (ohc) will significantly drop after 48 hours, further supporting the weakening trend.