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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, June 5, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no Tropical Cyclones
Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
South of Southern Mexico
>>> An elongated trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of southern Mexico. A low pressure system is expected to form on the east side of this trough during the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent
Offshore of Southwestern Mexico
>>> Showers and thunderstorms associated with the western side of the elongated trough south of Mexico have become a little better organized during the last 24 hours. A low pressure area is forecast to form in this area during the next day or two. Subsequent additional development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones
Western Pacific
There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92W, which is located approximately 394 NM east of Legazpi.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict deep flaring convection within the northwestern semicircle of an extremely broad low-level circulation (llc). The system is showing signs of being a monsoon depression, with a very large radius of maximum winds and pockets of enhanced vorticity along the eastern periphery.
Environmental analysis reveals a neutral environment, with moderate upper-level easterly flow over top of the llc, inducing low to moderate vertical wind shear (vws) of 15-20 knots, and moderate equatorward outflow. warm sea surface temperatures of are generally conducive of development if the llc can consolidate.
Deterministic models are split, with the GFS indicating 92W will remain relatively stationary and very broad, extending a trough eastward, where more significant development occurs in the extended forecast. The ECMWF shows minimal development until after 96 hours when the system slowly consolidates but remains a
monsoon depression.
The ECENS shows two distinct areas of possible development, 92W and an area originating north of Yap, which eventually merge and show moderate development, but well after 24 hours. The GEFS maintains a single area of development associated with
92W, that remains quasi-stationary until developing well after 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.