Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, September 2, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas.

Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Karina) is located about 1455 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Marie) is located about 415 miles south-southwest of of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Lowell) is located about 455 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Saudel) is located approximately 208 NM east of Hong Kong

Tropical Cyclone 22W (Krovanh) is located approximately 263 miles southeast of Kadena AB

Northeast Pacific:  

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Karina) 

KARINA REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE

According to the NHC advisory number 25…

Karina is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, followed by slow weakening over the next several days. However, Karina is likely to remain a powerful hurricane the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Marie) 

MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER…EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY

According to the NHC advisory number 6…

Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Friday, and Marie is likely to become a hurricane later today. A gradual weakening trend is expected over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Central North Pacific:  

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Lowell) 

LOWELL NOW A HURRICANE …FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT

According to the NHC advisory number 19…

Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion is expected to continue during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Lowell is expected to become a major hurricane by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

SURF: Swells generated by Lowell are likely to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands beginning on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Saudel)

According to the JTWC warning number 45…sustained winds were 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical depression 17W (Saudel) with a partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) with building deep convection offset to the northwest, along the coast of China. The system has tracked closer to the coast over the past 6 hours, and terrain interaction appears to be starting to affect the structure of the surrounding wind field.

Environmental analysis indicates that 17W remains in a marginal environment characterized by weak outflow aloft, low to moderate (15-20 kts) southeasterly vertical wind shear, proximity to land, and warm (29-30 c) sea surface temperatures.

TD 17W (Saudel) is forecast to begin slowing down over the next 12 hours as the steering pattern becomes much weaker due to the ner to the south moving off to the west. 17w is forecast to drift northward through 12 hours before turning westward once a subtropical ridge (str) builds over eastern China and assumes
steering over the system.

Landfall along the coast of China is forecast to occur soon after 12 hours. A westward track along the southern periphery of the str is then expected to persist through the remainder of the forecast period.

Regarding intensity, 17W is forecast to maintain its current intensity through 12 hours as the vortex remains over the warm waters. After 12 hours, terrain
interaction and southeasterly shear will weaken the vortex. Dissipation over land is forecast to occur around 48 hours, north of Hong Kong.

Tropical Cyclone 22W (Krovanh)

According to the JTWC warning number 6…sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical storm 22W (Krovanh) with a partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) with convective banding wrapping around the western and southern peripheries. A 021137z metop-b ascat pass revealed that the core of the circulation remains slightly stretched in the east-west direction. The ascat pass missed most of the eastern semicircle, but showed winds within the western semicircle are around 25-30 kts. however, An earlier 020922z rcm-3 sar pass caught the northeastern quadrant and showed a swath of 35 knot winds with a vmax right around 38 kts. As a result, the initial 34 knot wind radii are now only confined to the northeastern quadrant.

Environmental analysis indicates that 22W is in a marginally favorable environment characterized by weak equatorward outflow aloft, low (5-10 kts) vertical wind shear, dry air, and warm (28-29 c) sea surface temperatures.

TS 22W is forecast to continue tracking northwestward, along the southwestern periphery of the str through 36 hours. Near 36 hours, an upper-level trough is expected to dig in from the north and break down the steering ridge. This will cause 22W to be placed within a weak steering environment with ridging over eastern China, ridging to the east, and a near equatorial ridge to the south. Once the system enters this weak steering environment, the track is likely to be erratic.

Models show the vortex taking a variety of trajectories from 36 to 60 hours. Some keep the system quasi-stationary, some take an eastward turn, and others take a westward turn. However, there has become a bit more agreement on a southward track from 60 to 96 hours. There is now a clear lack of models showing a recurve scenario. As it stands, the JTWC track forecast calls for a slow southward turn from 36 to 96 hours followed by an eastward turn through 120 hours.

Accompanying the uncertainty in the track is an extreme uncertainty in the 34-knot wind radii, where models vary significantly on the symmetry and extent of
gale-force winds. This forecast now has the 34-knot wind radii shifting to the western side of the circulation after it makes the southward turn, which appears more realistic when accounting for the storm motion.

In terms of intensity, 22W is forecast to gradually intensify through 48 hours to a peak of around 45 kts as the wind field continues to consolidate and shear remains low. The system may also be able to tap into a poleward outflow channel once the upper-level trough over Japan sets up around 36 hours. After 48 hours, the system will be very slow moving, so the upwelling of cooler waters could become a factor. Additionally, shear and dry air are expected to increase,
causing 22W to weaken through 120 hours.