Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, August 28, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas.

Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Karina) is located about 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja CA

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Lowell) is located about 1560 miles east-southeast of Hilo

Post-Tropical Cyclone 01C (Lala) is located about 680 miles north of Kure Atoll – Last Advisory

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Saudel)…is located approximately 375 NM west-northwest of Kadena AB – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Bang-lang)…is located approximately 13 NM north-northwest of Wake Island

Tropical Cyclone 21W (Etau) …is located approximately 354 NM north of Wake Island

Northeast Pacific:  

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Karina) 

KARINA LIKELY TO BECOME A LARGE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO

According to the NHC advisory number 4…

Karina is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so, followed by a more westward turn. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Karina is likely to become a hurricane over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Lowell) 

LOWELL FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN

According to the NHC advisory number 4…

Lowell is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected by tomorrow, with that motion continuing into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is likely during the next several days, and Lowell is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

>>> Well offshore of Southwestern Mexico:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…80 percent

Central North Pacific:  

Post-Tropical Cyclone 01C (Lala) – Last Advisory

LALA IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE

According to the NHC advisory number 64…

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected to begin soon, and Lala is forecast to cross the International Date line on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected, and Lala is forecast to dissipate in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

>>> Central Pacific:

An area of low pressure could form well south or southwest of the Hawaiian Islands in a few days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, well offshore of the Hawaiian Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Saudel) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 39…Sustained winds were 55 knots with gusts to 70 knots

Animated radar imagery indicates the system has increased speed over the past six hours, making landfall over the Yuhuan Peninsula at 272330z. TS 17w is forecast to continue to track westward into central China under the influence of a subtropical ridge (str) centered to the northwest.

Intensity is expected to sharply decrease as the system interacts with the terrain, deteriorating the vortex rapidly and dissipating 17w as a tropical cyclone over land by 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Bang-lang) 

According to the JTWC warning number 10…Sustained winds were 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts typhoon 20w (bang-lang) with very cold cloud tops beginning to rotate around the extremely compact low-level circulation center (llcc), hinting at the beginning of the formation of an eye. The lack of recent high resolution microwave imagery causes there to be some uncertainty in the current structure of the core. 20w made an unexpected eastward jog over the past 6 hours, putting the system nearly directly overhead of wake island.

Surface observations on the island reported a pressure minimum of 985 mb with the strongest sustained winds reported of 51 kts from the southwest at 281149z. The center likely passed just to the north of the island at around 281200z judging by the wind shift from ese at 281042z to sw at 281143z. A 280957z metop-b ascat pass revealed that gale-force winds extend no further than 40 nm from the center, showing how compact the wind field is. However, the resolution of the ascat is too low to accurately depict the winds near the core.

TS 20w (bang-lang) is forecast to track north-northeastward along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge (str) currently positioned to the northeast through 48 hours. Near 48 hours, an incoming upper-level trough is expected to break down the steering ridge, pulling 20w further poleward. The system is also
expected to begin interacting with ts 21w (etau) starting around 48 hours, which will tug it northwestward through 72 hours. Subtropical transition is forecast to begin around 60 hours with completion by 72 hours as the system crosses the 26c sst isotherm and interacts with the mid-latitude trough.

Regarding intensity, 20w is forecast to intensify through 24 hours to a peak of 85 kts as vertical wind shear remains low (less than 15 kts) and ocean heat content remains relatively high. If the system is able to maintain a defined eye, a higher peak intensity is not outside the realm of possibility. Starting around 36 hours, shear
is expected to increase and ocean heat content will rapidly drop, causing the system to weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The highly compact nature of the system may cause the intensity to be volatile as small changes in the environment could have a large impact on the vortex.

Tropical Cyclone 21W (Etau) 

According to the JTWC warning number 7…Sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical storm 21w (etau) with a fully exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) with deep convection attempting to build closer to the center. The strong westerly shear acting on the system has continued to cause the convection to be displaced to the east. A 280959z metop-b ascat pass revealed a highly asymmetric wind field with the 34 knot winds entirely confined to the eastern semicircle.

Environmental analysis indicates that 21w is placed within a marginal environment characterized by strong
outflow aloft and warm (29-30 c) sea surface temperatures offset by high (30-35 kts) westerly shear and dry air entrainment.

TS 21w (etau) is forecast to track north-northwestward along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge
(str) positioned to the east through 48 hours. Near 48 hours, an incoming upper-level trough is expected to dig in from the north, breaking down the steering ridge and causing track speeds to slow. Binary interaction with ty 20w (bang-lang) will cause 21w to be tugged northeastward through after 72 hours. A developing frontal boundary is expected to form near the very end of the forecast period, which could cause track speeds to be faster if the frontal boundary picks up the system sooner than anticipated. Subtropical transition is forecast to begin at 60 hours with completion by 72 hours as the system crosses the 26 c isotherm, becomes engulfed by dry air, and interacts with the mid-latitude trough.

In terms of intensity, 21w is forecast to maintain its current intensity through 24 hours, primarily driven by warm sst and strong poleward outflow. After 24 hours, dry air, high shear, and quickly lowering ocean heat content will cause 21w to weaken through the remainder of the forecast period.