The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, July 23, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical cyclone 06E Fausto…1840 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii
Tropical cyclone 11W (Noul)…is located approximately 285 NM north-northeast of Manila, Philippines
Northeast Pacific:
Tropical cyclone 06E (Fausto)
FAUSTO IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
According to the NHC Advisory number 20
Fausto is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some small intensity fluctuations are possible today, and a slow weakening trend is forecast over the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Fausto are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and the coast of southern California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> Eastern and Central East Pacific:
Invest 98E
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend, while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclone
>>> Well Southwest of Hawaii:
A area of low pressure located well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
The system is forecast to move into the western Pacific basin late this weekend or early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones
Western Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 11W (Noul)
According to the JTWC Warning number 4
Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical depression 11W with a radially expanding central dense overcast (cdo) that fully obscures the low level circulation center (llcc). 11W is continuously improving in organization, both surface and vertical, and a recently formed poleward outflow channel promotes further development.
Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment characterized by low (10-15 kts) vertical wind shear (vws), warm (29-30 c) sea surface temperatures, and good divergence aloft.
TD 11W will continue tracking steadily northwestward through 60 hours, while it remains on the southwestern periphery of the steering ridge. 11W is expected to make landfall between 48-60 hours to the northeast of Hong Kong.
Regarding intensity, 11W is expected to steadily intensify up until landfall, followed by drastic weakening caused by terrain interaction. When 11W enters the South China Sea at around 12 hours, it will encounter an increasingly favorable environment, opening the potential for rapid intensification (ri) and a peak greater than currently forecast. Currently, 11W is forecast to intensify at a steady rate with the peak intensity forecast to occur around 48 hours at 75 kts, just prior to landfall. Ultimately, land interaction will completely dissipate 11W by 120 hours.
