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Aug
21
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Kenneth) is located about 1400 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Hato) is located about 179 miles southeast of Kaohsiung, Taiwan

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions and wind radii, and TAOS Model for Tropical Cyclone 13E (Kenneth)

Hurricane 13E (Kenneth) has attained Category 3…although will be winding down going forward

Here’s a current satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this hurricane

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Kenneth continues to have an impressive structure in satellite images. The eye of the hurricane remains distinct, and the convective pattern is symmetric around the center. The cloud tops in the eyewall, however, are not quite as cold as they were overnight.

Kenneth has likely reached its peak intensity as it will be crossing into cooler sea surface temperatures later today. In addition, the hurricane will be moving into a progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable thermodynamics, combined with a significant increase in southerly wind shear beginning in about 2 days, should cause Kenneth to weaken at a steady or rapid pace.

The system is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 3 days when the wind shear is expected to increase to near 30 knots, while Kenneth is over a progressively cooler sea surface. These conditions should cause the associated convection to dissipate or be sheared away from the circulation.

This major hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 9 knots, steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. The system is forecast to turn to the northwest later today, followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Tuesday as Kenneth moves into a pronounced weakness caused by a cut-off low near the California coast.  s.

There appears to be no threat to the Hawaiian Islands in the central Pacific…although there could be some rising surf along the east shores.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards,3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 15W (Hato)

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Hati) is gradually strengthening…as it moves through the Luzon Strait towards the southeastern China coast

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this storm

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite imagery shows persistent convection sheared southwestward of a broad and ragged low level circulation.

Upper level analysis indicates marginally favorable conditions with strong radial outflow being offset by strong 20-25 wind shear.

Along track sea surface temperatures remain warm and conducive for continued development.

Typhoon 15W is forecast to continue tracking west-northwest through the Luzon Strait before making landfall after 36 hours, just east of Hong Kong…then inland into southeast China. The system should strengthen, peaking at 50 knots just prior to landfall.

Rapid decay will occur as it drags over the rugged terrain of SE China…dissipating within 72 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #07 were 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 13E (Kenneth)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 15W (Hato)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Aug
21
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…and three tropical disturbances with medium and low chances of developing

However, the NHC is highlighting three tropical disturbances

1.) A trough of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Harvey, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Some development of this system is still possible before it reaches the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday.

The disturbance is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for redevelopment.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.

The Air Force reconnaissance aircraft mission scheduled for today has been canceled.

This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest Harvey, here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
*
Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

2.) A trough of low pressure located near the southeastern and central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the Bahamas.

Conditions could become a little more conducive for development later in the week when the system is near Florida or the adjacent waters.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
*
Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

3.) A large area of showers and thunderstorms located about 800 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a surface trough that is interacting with a large upper-level low over the central Atlantic.

Upper-level winds are not conducive for development of this system while it moves northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
*
Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Aug
18
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 13E is located about 705 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions and wind radii, and TAOS Model for Tropical Cyclone 13E

Tropical Depression 13E has formed well offshore of the Mexican coast…and will attain Hurricane status by Sunday morning

Here’s a current satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this storm

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), deep convection associated with the disturbance located over the open eastern Pacific Ocean has become better organized early this morning, and a primary convective band now wraps around the western half of the circulation. Shortwave-IR and first-light visible imagery suggest that a complex, but closed surface circulation exists. NHC is therefore initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E.

Light easterly wind wind shear has thus far limited convection to the western half of the circulation, although the GFS and ECMWF models agree that the shear will lessen as the system moves farther west. Overall, the environment appears conducive for intensification for the next 3 days or so, and the NHC forecast indicates that the cyclone will become a hurricane by the end of this weekend.

After that time, the cyclone will begin to weaken over much cooler waters. There is fairly good agreement among the global models that the tropical cyclone will move generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 h along the southern boundary of a mid-level ridge that extends westward well into the eastern Pacific basin. A weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop in about 3 days that should cause the cyclone to slow and turn more toward the northwest and eventually toward the north-northwest.

There appears to be no threat to the Hawaiian Islands in the central Pacific

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing

Finally, in the central Pacific, there’s a tropical disturbance…which now has a low chance of developing

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located around 600 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized.

Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development over the next few days due to a combination of dry middle- to upper-level air and increasing upper-level winds as it drifts toward the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low…30 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 13E

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Aug
18
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harvey) is located about 55 miles west of Barbados

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions and wind radii, and TAOS Model for Tropical Storm Harvey

Tropical Storm Harvey is moving between Barbados and the Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Harvey is bringing rain to the Windward Islands, and may pose a threat early next week in parts of Central America’s Caribbean coast.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Windward Islands, including Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Warnings are issued when tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Dominica, where those conditions are possible within that time period.

Harvey will bring 2-4 inches of rain across the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada, which could trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. As of early Friday morning, almost 4.5 inches of rain has fallen in Barbados.

The system will then track westward through the rest of the Caribbean Sea, and will likely pose a threat to parts of Central America and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula early next week.

Here’s a current satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this storm

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Harvey’s cloud pattern has changed very little in organization during the past several hours. The low-level center is difficult to find, but it appears to be located on the eastern edge of the convection due to the prevailing easterly shear.

Another Air Force plane will be investigating Harvey at sunrise. The moderate easterly wind shear affecting the cyclone is expected to increase a little during the next day or so, and this factor should not allow significant strengthening. Once the cyclone reaches the western Caribbean Sea in 3-4 days, an environment of lower wind shear and high moisture is forecast to prevail, and Harvey should then gather some strength.

The cyclone could be near hurricane strength by the time it is approaching Central America or the Yucatan peninsula. The GFS and the ECMWF global models are just a little more enthusiastic in keeping the cyclone from dissipating in this last run, but who knows what they might forecast the next time.

Harvey has not changed in track or speed, and it is still moving toward the west at 16 knots. The cyclone is well embedded within the easterlies…south of a persistent subtropical ridge. This steering pattern will keep Harvey trapped in the Caribbean Sea while moving westward for the next few days.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading through the warning area at this time, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area today.

RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…and two tropical disturbances with high, and low chances of developing

Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Atlantic, the NHC is highlighting two tropical disturbances

1.) Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands continues to show signs of organization.

While it would take only a slight increase in organization for a tropical depression to form later today or tonight, upper-level winds are becoming less favorable for development.

The low is expected to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 92L, here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
*
Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

2.) Shower activity has increased during the last 24 hours in association with a tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for some development early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
*
Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

Tropical cyclone 09L  (Harvey)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Aug
17
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Banyan) is located about 1129 NM north-northeast of Wake Island, Japan – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards,3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii for now retired TC 14W (Banyan)

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Banyan) is winding down…as it remains away from land in the western Pacific – Final Warning

Here’s a satellite image of this system

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite imagery shows an area of flaring convection being sheared to the northwest, and starting to exhibit frontal characteristics.

TC 14W has accelerated northeastward and over cooler waters. Upper level analysis shows a substantial increase in wind shear.

Typhoon 14W is currently transitioning into a cold core storm…and is forecast to be fully extratropical within 12 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #24 were 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…with a tropical disturbance that has a medium chance of developing

Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, there’s a potential tropical cyclone which could eventually spin up

1.) An area of low pressure is located about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

This system has a broad circulation, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression may form within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…and a tropical disturbance with high chance of developing

Finally, in the central Pacific, there’s a tropical disturbance…which has a high chance of developing

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located less than 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have become slightly better organized overnight.

Environmental conditions appear to remain conducive for additional development of this system during the next few days as it drifts toward the west-northwest.

If the recent trend of improved organization persists, a tropical depression could form in this area later today or tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high…80 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 14W (Banyan) – Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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