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Aug
27
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 07L (Gaston) remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…located about 740 miles east-southeast of Bermuda

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Tropical Cyclone 07L (Gaston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Tropical Cyclone 07L (Gaston)

Tropical Storm 07L (Gaston) remains active in the Atlantic, and should become a hurricane soon…although it remains unlikely to threaten land

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 07L is moving toward the northwest at near 10 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a microwave image indicated that Gaston had developed a 15 NM diameter low level eye, that was embedded in the center of the nearly circular center of circulation. 

As anticipated, Gaston has slowed down and the motion estimate is now 310 degrees at 09 knots. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a northwestward motion and continue to decelerate during the next 48 hours. A sharp turn toward the north and northeast is expected, when the cyclone is located several hundred miles east of Bermuda.

Although the mid-level environment is expected to be characterized by low humidity values of 40-45 percent during the next 72 hours, the cyclone will be moving over a warm sea surface…and remain in a low wind shear environment. Those latter conditions, along with the small eye feature, and the outflow jet pattern should allow Gaston to overcome the dry conditions…resulting in strengthening at a typical rate of about 20 knots per day.

By days 4 and 5, the wind shear is forecast to increase sharply and become westerly at more than 30 knots, which should induce a weakening trend. 

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, and three areas of disturbed weather

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, and three areas of disturbed weather

There’s an area of disturbed weather moving through the Caribbean…which may become a tropical depression or storm in the Gulf of Mexico with time

This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 99L, and is circled in orange in the PDC Atlas above

Here’s a satellite image…with what the computer models are showing what could possibly become Tropical Storm Hermine

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is stating that a weak area of low pressure is located south of Andros Island in the Bahamas, and continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms…mainly to the south and east of its center.

Upper level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so, while the low moves west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida…at about 10 mph.

Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of eastern and central Cuba today. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later this weekend.

Some areas will likely pick up 3-7 inches of rain, possibly in a short period of time…triggering flooding. Here’s the latest NWS precipitation forecast through the next 7-days

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.

 

>>> There’s another area of disturbed weather, located in the Gulf of Mexico…circled in yellow in the PDC Atlas above

Here’s a satellite image of this area

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports a weak trough of low pressure is located about a hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Louisiana, and is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.

Conditions are not expected to be conducive for development before this system reaches the coast of Texas on Sunday. However, heavy rainfall is possible along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next few days.

Here’s the latest NWS precipitation forecast through the next 7-days

The odds of tropical development is very low, although there’s a chance for some of the associated rain to move into southeast Texas and Louisiana. Since Louisiana is so flood prone right now…the situation will have to be closely monitored.

 

>>> Finally, there’s yet another area of disturbed weather, located in the Atlantic Ocean…circled in yellow in the PDC Atlas above

A few showers were affecting Bermuda Saturday, as seen on Bermuda radar.

Here’s a satellite image of this area, which is being referred to as Invest 91L…with what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports an area of low pressure centered about 130 miles southwest of Bermuda, is producing winds of around 35 mph.

While shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little near the center during the past few hours, any significant development of this system is likely to be slow to occur due the proximity of dry air.

This low is expected to move westward and then west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the coast of the Carolinas during the next few days.

By Monday evening, 91L may begin spreading heavy rains along the coast of North Carolina, and the storm could move ashore on Tuesday…before turning northeastwards, out to sea.


Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07L (Gaston)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

1.)  A broad area of low pressure located about 140 miles southwest of Bermuda is producing winds of 30 to 35 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity has not become any better organized during the past few hours, and significant development of this system is likely to be slow to occur due the proximity of dry air during the next couple of days while it moves westward and then west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the coast of North Carolina. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear is expected to make development unlikely.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

2.) A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Conditions appear favorable for development of this system later next week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

1.) A weak area of low pressure located between the northern coast of Cuba and Andros Island in the Bahamas continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the south and east of its center. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida at about 10 mph. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of eastern and central Cuba today. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission scheduled to investigate this system today has been canceled.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

1.)  A weak trough of low pressure located south of the coast of southwestern Louisiana is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are not expected to be conducive for development before this system reaches the coast of Texas on Sunday. However, heavy rainfall is possible along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Aug
26
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Lionrock) is active in the NW Pacific Ocean…located about 307 NM southeast of Kadena AFB, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Lester) remains active over the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 520 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impact layer for Tropical Cyclone 12W

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impact layer for Tropical Cyclone 12W

Typhoon 12W (Lionrock) remains active over the western Pacific…over the ocean south of Japan

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows the system retained a well defined 12 NM eye and excellent dual outflow…however, subsidence has begun to erode some of the convection along the northern peripheries.

Upper level analysis indicates TY 12W is in an area of low to moderately strong, 10-15 knot wind shear.

Although sea surface temperatures are very warm, and outflow remains robust, increasing wind shear will result in further weakening in the near term. However, within 24 hours, increased poleward outflow, will cause a small rebound in the intensity to near 100 knots.

In the extended period, TY Lionrock will find increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures, and the track across Honshu Island, will gradually weaken the cyclone down to 35 knots within 120 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #35 were 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impact layer for Tropical Cyclone 13E…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impact layer for Tropical Cyclone 13E…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing

Tropical Storm 13E (Lester) remains active in the eastern Pacific, and should become a hurricane this weekend

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 13E is moving toward the west-northwest at near 12 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), it appears that northwesterly wind shear and dry air intrusion is continuing to prevent Lester from strengthening. The deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone continues to burst, but there is little evidence of banding features at this time.

The wind shear is expected to decrease very soon, which favors some intensification, while Lester remains over warm water during the next few days. Nearby dry air could occasionally interrupt the intensification process during this time, so only gradually strengthening is anticipated through 72 hours.

After that time, slightly cooler waters and a more stable airmass near the track, could cause some weakening by the end of the forecast period.

>>>  There continues to be a tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific (circled in red on the PDC Atlas above)…with a high chance of developing within 2-days

This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 98E, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become more organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and if current trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Saturday as low moves westward or west- northwestward at about 15 mph.

The computer forecast models are suggesting that Invest 98E will become Tropical Storm Madeline in the next few days. This system will likely end up heading westward a few hundred miles ahead of TC Lester…likely peaking somewhat below hurricane strength.

Unusually warm sea surface temperatures, associated with the recent El Niño, have given Hawaii more than its normal number of tropical storms over the past couple of years. Two tropical cyclones became the first to make landfall in the Big Island, they were Tropical Storm Iselle (August 2014) and Tropical Storm Darby (July 2016).

If Invest 98E does become TS Madeline, it will occur well ahead of schedule for East Pacific. For the period 1971-2009, the average formation date of a storm starting with the letter M…has been September 28th.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Lester)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

1.) Showers and thunderstorms continue to become more organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and if current trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Saturday as low moves westward or west- northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

2.) An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some subsequent development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located around 1400 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii are becoming more organized. Environmental conditions are expected to support further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next couple of days as it continues toward the west-northwest around 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Lionrock)  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Aug
26
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 07L (Gaston) remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…located about 1110 miles east-southeast of Bermuda

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Tropical Cyclone 07L (Gaston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Tropical Cyclone 07L (Gaston)

Tropical Storm 07L (Gaston) remains active in the Atlantic, and should become a hurricane this weekend…although it remains unlikely to threaten land

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 07L is moving toward the north-northwest at near 17 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Gaston continues to be adversely impacted by about 20 knots of southwesterly wind shear. This wind shear is forcing the diminished deep convection to be primarily located north of the center.

As Gaston moves along, the shear should drop fairly dramatically to between 5 and 10 knots by tomorrow. The shear should stay low through about 72 hours, while the cyclone traverses over quite warm waters.

After about three days, Gaston should encounter strong mid-latitude upper-level westerlies and a return of hostile shear…at the same time that sea surface temperatures steadily drop. The official NHC forecast is for steady intensification between days one and three, with gradual weakening thereafter.

The tropical storm is moving toward the north-northwest at a rapid 15 knot clip, as it’s being steered between the strong upper low and a subtropical ridge to its northeast. Around 72 hours, Gaston should slow to a crawl as it reaches a weak steering pattern.

But by the end of the forecast period, the system should be accelerating northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, and two areas of disturbed weather

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, and two areas of disturbed weather

>>> Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather moving through the Caribbean…which may become a tropical depression or storm next week in the Gulf of Mexico.

This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 99L

Here’s a satellite image…with what the computer models are showing what could possibly become Tropical Storm Hermine

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports a weak area of low pressure extending from eastern Cuba northward to the central Bahamas. that is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development during the next couple of days, while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development early next week, when the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate this system has been canceled.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola today, and over eastern and central Cuba through the weekend.

Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will likely spread into parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys over the weekend. Some areas will likely pick up over 3.00 inches of rain, possibly in a short period of time…triggering flooding.

Here’s the NWS precipitation forecast through the next 3-days

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.

>>> Finally, there’s another area of disturbed weather…located in the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s a satellite image … of this area

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports a weak area of disturbed weather is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.

Surface pressures in this area are currently high, and little to no development of this system is expected before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend.

The odds of tropical development is very low, although there’s a chance for some of the associated rain to move into southeast Texas and Louisiana. Since Louisiana is so flood prone right now…the situation will have to be closely monitored.

Here’s the NWS precipitation forecast through the next 3-days

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07L (Gaston)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

1.) A weak area of low pressure is located between the northeastern coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few hours, but remains disorganized and is located mainly to the east and southeast of the low. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development early next week when the system approaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola today and over eastern and central Cuba through the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will likely spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys over the weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

1.) Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is associated with a weak area of disturbed weather. Surface pressures in this area are high, and significant development of this system is not expected before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend. However, regardless of tropical cyclone development, this disturbance could produce rainfall along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Aug
25
2016

Hazard Highlights

Strong Quakes Shake Italy, Myanmar

HH082516

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying the shaking intensity for the 6.2M earthquake in Norcia, Italy, as well as the locations and magnitudes of earthquakes reported in the past 48 hours.

In the early hours of August 24 (local time), a strong 6.2M earthquake struck 10 kilometers southeast of Norcia, Italy, in the northeastern province of Rieti, causing major damage in the municipalities of Amatrice, Accumoli, Grisciano, Arquata del Tronto, and Pescara del Tronto (USGS, ECHO).

Within an hour after the initial earthquake struck, a 5.5M aftershock was also reported 4km NE of Norcia. As of 0700 (local time) on August 25, at least 460 aftershocks were registered (ECHO).

According to reports (as of August 25), the number of deaths caused by the quake has reached 250, with most reported in Amatrice (Reuters). Response operations are ongoing, and the Italian government has declared a “State of Emergency” in the affected regions of the country (ReliefWeb/Humanity Road).

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying the shaking intensity for the 6.8M earthquake in Chauk, Myanmar, as well as the locations and magnitudes of earthquakes reported in the past 48 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying the shaking intensity for the 6.8M earthquake in Chauk, Myanmar, as well as the locations and magnitudes of earthquakes reported in the past 48 hours.

Also on August 24, a 6.8M earthquake struck central Myanmar, damaging buildings (including pagodas, schools, houses, and a hospital) and killing three people. According to reports, communities along the Magway-Mandalay border experienced the most severe impacts, but that overall, “humanitarian impact has been relatively low despite the earthquake’s magnitude” (ReliefWeb/UNOCHA, ReliefWeb/UNOCHA Statement).

RVA Country Profile: Italy

HH082516

This Week in Hazards

  • According to the National Hurricane Center (2000 EDT), a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L) moving through the Caribbean has a medium chance of developing into a significant tropical cyclone over the next five days.  NHC advises that regardless of whether the system does develop, it is expected to produce heavy rains over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba through Friday, increasing the risk of flash floods and mudslides, as well as bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to parts of The Bahamas (NHC).

Current Hazard Warnings

Tropical Cyclone: Lionrock (Western North Pacific)

Flood: Hispaniola, United States (Louisiana, Iowa, Arkansas, Texas), India, Myanmar, Laos, Queensland, Sudan, South Sudan, Chad, Ethiopia, Eritrea

Earthquake: Myanmar

Landslide: Laos, Indonesia (West Java)

Wildfire: United States (Washington, Montana, California), Canada (British Columbia)

Volcano: Indonesia

Drought: United States (Western, Southern, Northeastern), Bolivia (Southern)

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the Global Hazards Atlas.

Aug
25
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Lionrock) is active in the NW Pacific Ocean…located about 246 NM southeast of Kadena AFB, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Lester) remains active over the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 465 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impact layer for Tropical Cyclone 12W

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impact layer for Tropical Cyclone 12W

Typhoon 12W (Lionrock) remains active over the western Pacific…over the ocean south of Japan

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts the system has maintained deep symmetric central convection and excellent dual outflow…despite losing its central eye feature.

TY 12W remains in a weak steering environment.

Typhoon 12W has begun a slow poleward track, while sea surface temperatures and outflow remain robust…increasing wind shear will offset these favorable dynamics, and result in a slight weakening in the near term.

In the extended period, TY Lionrock will experience a small rebound, peaking near 100 knots. Thereafter, this typhoon will begin to track more northward, and with cooling sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear…will gradually weaken down to 45 knots within 120 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #31 were 110 knots with gusts of 135 knots.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impact layer for Tropical Cyclone 13E...and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing within 5-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impact layer for Tropical Cyclone 13E…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing within 5-days

Tropical Storm 13E (Lester) remains active in the eastern Pacific, and should become a hurricane Friday

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 13E is moving toward the west-northwest at near 12 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the cloud pattern of Lester continues to gradually become better organized, with developing convective banding features.

The global models forecast a low wind shear environment for Lester over the next several days, and the cyclone should remain over warm sea surface temperatures throughout most of the forecast period.

Steady strengthening is forecast until late in period when Lester approaches marginal sea surface temperatures. A gradual turn toward the west, at a slightly faster pace than shown in the previous official forecast, is anticipated.

 

>>>  There’s a tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific (circled in red on the PDC Atlas above)…with a high chance of developing within 5-days

This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 98E, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii have increased in coverage during the past 24 hours.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing

There’s an area of disturbed weather in the western Pacific (circled in yellow in the PDC Atlas above)…which has a low chance of developing

This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 92W…here’s a satellite image of this general area…and what the model guidance shows

This area is located approximately 350 NM northeast of Iwo To, Japan

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) satellite imagery depicts a fully exposed low level circulation center, with deep broad convection, and fragmented cloud banding shearing eastward of the elongated center.

Upper level environmental analysis reveals the center is in an area of neutral exhaust and unfavorable 20-25 knot wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds in this area are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for development within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Lester)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii have increased in coverage during the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

2.) An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Some subsequent development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Lionrock)  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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