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Jun
27
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora) remains active in the eastern Pacific…located about 250 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, and Tropical Cyclone segments, wind radii, positions for Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora)

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora) is the season’s first hurricane, which is gradually weakening…as it heads toward Socorro Island [a small volcanic island under Mexico’s jurisdiction]

Dora’s center will remain well off the Mexican coast, posing no direct threat…although high surf and rip currents are possible along parts of Mexico’s Pacific coast beaches.

There are no tropical storm watches or warnings in effect.

Approximately 2.00 inches of rain dropped on Mexico’s Guerrero and Michoacán states Monday.

Here’s a NASA satellite image, the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Looping satellite image of this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near time wind profile of Hurricane Dora

Here’s an animated graphic showing the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific

The current projected NHC forecast track would have Dora remaining in the eastern Pacific…with no threat to the Hawaiian Islands expected

The NHC Advisory #11 showed that Hurricane Dora had sustained 65 knot winds…with 80 mph gusts – Category 1

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles.

According to the National Hurricane Center  (NHC), Dora’s satellite presentation continues to degrade. Although an eye is still evident, the coverage and depth of deep convection has been diminishing.

The cyclone is currently passing over cooler sea surface temperatures, and the waters beneath Dora will continue to cool for the next couple of days. The system should weaken to a tropical storm later today and degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, or less.

A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should maintain the west-northwestward motion, with some decrease in forward speed over the next day or two. In 48-72 hours, a more westward track of the weakening cyclone is anticipated.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula today through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance in the western Pacific, which is being referred to as Invest 97W…located approximately 625 NM southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a poorly defined low level circulation, with fragmented convection northwest of the center.

Upper level analysis reveals the system is in an area of moderate wind shear…and limited poleward outflow.

Global models do not show any significant development as it tracks northwestward over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

Due to the generally unfavorable conditions, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora) 

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

>>> Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
27
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

However,  a tropical disturbance has a low chance of forming in the eastern Atlantic Ocean…within the next 5 days

According to the National Hurricane Center, cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization.

Slow development is possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

This disturbance might have the potential to eventually develop into a tropical cyclone well off the west coast of Central America…as we push into early July

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Slow development is possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
26
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora) is active in the eastern Pacific…located about 175 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, and Tropical Cyclone segments, wind radii, positions for Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora)

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora) has become the season’s first hurricane…with a bit more strengthening expected

Dora strengthened from a tropical depression Saturday night to a hurricane Monday morning.

Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora will remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico today…and pass well to the south of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday.

Here’s a NASA satellite image, the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Looping satellite image of this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near time wind profile of Hurricane Dora

Here’s a looping graphic showing the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific

The current projected NHC forecast track would have Dora remaining in the eastern Pacific…with no threat to the Hawaiian Islands expected

The NHC Advisory #7 showed that Hurricane Dora had sustained 75 knot winds…with 90 mph gusts – Category 1

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.

According to the National Hurricane Center  (NHC), Dora has continued to rapidly intensify with a 20-nm diameter, cloud-filled eye now evident in visible satellite imagery. The upper-level outflow pattern remains quite impressive and continues to expand in all quadrants.

Dora could be a little stronger, but recent infrared imagery indicates that the inner-core convection has eroded significantly, so the initial intensity will remain on the low end of estimates for this advisory.

Dora has been holding on a steady west-northwestward course for the past 12 hours. A strong deep-layer subtropical ridge entrenched to the north of the hurricane, is expected to keep Dora moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next 3 days or so.

By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to weaken significantly and become a more vertically shallow system, steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow until Dora dissipates by day 5.

Dora has about another 12 hours or so to strengthen. However, the rapid intensification event that the hurricane has undergone for the past 30 hours has likely ended. The aforementioned erosion of the inner-core convection is possibly due to the entrainment of cooler and more stable air into the western semicircle, now that Dora is beginning to encroach upon cooler sea surface temperatures.

The wind shear is expected to remain low at less than 5 knots, and the favorable upper-level outflow pattern is forecast to persist for the next few days as well. The only hindering factor will be the  hurricane moving over the cooler waters within 12-18 hours.

Steady weakening should begin by 24 hours, but the rate of the weakening trend should be lessened due to proximity to warmer water just south of the path of Dora. Although the center of Dora is forecast to remain well offshore, the outer bands of the cyclone could bring brief locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into this evening.

Locally heavy rainfall will focus on the areas from Manzanillo to Tomatlan…where localized flooding and mudslides will be possible into early Tuesday.

Dora is expected to remain far enough offshore for the Mexican coast to miss the heaviest rain and strongest winds.

Rough seas will continue, as Hurricane Dora spins offshore, creating hazards for small craft and swimmers along the coast.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance in the western Pacific, which is being referred to as Invest 97W…located approximately 237 NM west-northwest of Andersen AFB, Guam

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a ragged and poorly defined low level circulation, with a flaring and fragmented central convection sheared eastward of the center.

Upper level analysis reveals the system is in an area of light to moderate wind shear.

Global models do not show any significant development.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

Due to the deteriorating upper level conditions, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora) 

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
26
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Tropical Cyclone Activity is not expected for the time being, nor are any tropical disturbances under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
23
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy) is located about 75 miles north-northeast of Memphis, Tennessee – Final Advisory

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy) continues to move further inland…bringing heavy rains as a weakened tropical depression – Final Advisory

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur, Texas early Thursday morning. Moisture from this weakening system will continue to bring heavy rainfall in the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TD 03L

Here’s the latest radar image with warnings for this system…along with an image showing potential rainfall

The NHC Advisory #16 shows that TC 03L had sustained 35 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center  (NHC), UNDER INCREASING WIND SHEAR, THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY HAS BECOME ELONGATED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CINDY REMAINS INTACT, WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 46 MPH REPORTED IN MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE DURING THE PAST HOUR.

HOWEVER…ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS RATHER SHALLOW, AS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES OVER THE SURFACE CENTER.

TO THE SOUTH OF CINDY…THUNDERSTORMS ARE ORGANIZING INTO AN ELONGATED BAND WHICH EXTENDS DOWN INTO LOUISIANA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY EARLY SATURDAY…WHEN A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS TD WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM THE LOWER AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT…BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE…ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS…AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THESE REGIONS…SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LIFE THREATENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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