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Feb
21
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones at this time

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

Tropical Cyclone Activity is not expected for the time being, nor are any tropical disturbances under investigation by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
20
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones at this time

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

Tropical Cyclone Activity is not expected for the time being, nor are any tropical disturbances under investigation by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
19
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is located about 501 NM northwest of Wellington, New Zealand – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for TC 09P (Gita)

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) remains at the tropical storm level…as it moves over the open ocean towards New Zealand

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the low level circulation center with its convection…displaced to the south.

Upper level analysis shows increasing very strong wind shear of 50-60 knots, which is offset by a strong poleward outflow channel. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures are unfavorable for additional development…and will remain that way.

The system is tracking generally southeastward…maintaining an intensity of 50-55 knots. It will track towards or eventually over New Zealand, bringing stormy weather and rough seas.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #44 are estimated be 55 knots…with gusts to 70 knots.

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 92P…located approximately 303 NM south-southwest of Bora Bora

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery show a partially exposed low level circulation center, with some convection sheared to the east.

Wind shear of 15-20 knots remains moderate over Invest 92P, while sea surface temperatures remain warm under it…and will support further development.

Global models show 92P reaching tropical storm strength between 24-48 hours, as it tracks to the south-southeast.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) – Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
18
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is located about 326 NM west-southwest of Kingston Island

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 09P (Gita)

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) remains at the tropical storm level…as it moves over the open ocean towards New Zealand

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that convection is continuing to weaken around the low level circulation center associated with TC Gita.

Environmental analysis shows strong wind shear of 25-30 knots, which is offset by a strong poleward outflow channel. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures are unfavorable for additional development…and will remain that way.

The system is tracking generally southward, and will begin to move southeast after 12 hours…maintaining an intensity of 50 knots. It will track over New Zealand, bringing stormy weather and rough seas.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #41 are estimated be 50 knots…with gusts to 65 knots.

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 92P…located approximately 500 NM west of Bora Bora

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery show that 92P is characterized a low level circulation with flaring convection sheared to the east.

The upper level environment remains marginal, with moderate wind shear of 20-25 knots, and weak divergence aloft.

Sea surface temperatures are warm.

Global models show 92P tracking south and possibly reaching tropical storm strength beyond 36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
17
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is located about 303 NM northwest of Kingston Island

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Kelvin) is located about 85 NM south-southwest of Broome, Australia – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 09P (Gita)

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) remains at the tropical storm level…as it moves over the open ocean towards New Zealand

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a weakening convective structure, associated with the low level circulation center of TC 09P.

Environmental analysis reveals moderate wind shear of 15-20 knots, which is being offset by a robust poleward outflow channel. Sea surface temperatures remain favorable for the time being.

TC 09P will track southwestward and then begin moving southward by 30 hours…with an intensity of 50 knots.

TC Gita will then move southeastward as it accelerates and begins extra-tropical transition by 72 hours. It will make landfall in New Zealand within 84 hours…bringing inclement weather conditions and rough seas at that time.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #36 are estimated be 60 knots…with gusts to 75 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions and wind radii for TC 10S

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Kelvin) is moving inland and dissipating over western Australia

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep and persistent convection around the low level circulation center associated with TC 10S.

Environmental analysis reveals favorable 5-10 knot wind shear along with strong poleward and equatorward outflow channels.. Sea surface temperatures remain very favorably warm.

TC Kelvin will slowly track southeastward, making landfall in northwest Australia shortly before 12 hours…with an intensity of 50 knots.

TC 10S will then continue to track southeastward, eventually southward, and gradually weaken in intensity…dissipating over land by 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #8 are estimated be 80 knots…with gusts to 100 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 92P…located approximately 535 NM southeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery show that 92P is characterized by a broad region of ill-defined low level turning.

The upper level environment has moderate wind shear of 20-25 knots, and neutral divergence in the vicinity.

Sea surface temperatures are warm and will support further development.

Global models show some agreement that 92P will remain nearly stationary for the near term,  before possibly heading southeast and reaching tropical storm strength after 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Kelvin)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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