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Jul
29
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 08E remains active in the northeastern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 1420 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 02B is now active in the Bay of Bengal…it was located approximately 64 NM south-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 08E

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 08E

Tropical Depression 08E remains active in the northeastern Pacific…although now is on a quick weakening trend

Tropical depression 08E was located approximately 1420 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii…and has been moving westward at 13 mph.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific, along with Invest 91E to the southeast…and another tropical disturbance to the southwest

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a recent microwave pass revealed that the depression still has a well-defined circulation and center, but the deep convection has become less organized since yesterday. 

Wind shear is out of the north-northwest at 10-15 knots, which is lower than yesterday, although the depression has been moving into an increasingly drier air mass.

Therefore, the system is forecast to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure by 48 hours…following the evolution depicted in the global models.

The initial motion is westward, with the depression being steered by the low-level ridge of high pressure to its north. A westward motion with some acceleration should occur during the next 36 hours before the depression dissipates.

Maximum sustained surface winds at the NHC advisory #8, were 30 knots…with gusts to 40 knots.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 02B

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 02B

Tropical Cyclone 02B is now active in the Bay of Bengal…and will move inland over India

This cyclone is located approximately 64 NM south-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh. 

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicates that satellite imagery shows persistent deep convective cloud banding over the southern semi-circle of the low level circulation center.

TC 02B is commencing a slow poleward track…with a more westward track beginning after 12 hours.

There’s expected to be a slight intensification before this TC makes landfall…with rapid weakening thereafter due to land interaction.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC warning #3 was 35 knot sustained winds…with gusts to near 45 knots.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 91E, circled in red above, which should become more organized…taking on the title tropical depression 09E soon

Here’s a
satellite image of this disturbance, in the looping mode...and what the computer models are showing

This area is located about 1350 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression later today or by tonight.

If this organization and strengthening were to occur, it would take on the title Tropical Depression 09E…and potentially becoming Tropical Storm Hilda  

It has a high 80% chance of developing during the next 2-days…which increases to a high 90% chance over the next 5-days.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

There are two tropical disturbances above, one circled in red…and the other in yellow

1.)  The first one, circled in red, is located approximately 315 NM northwest of Kwajalein Atoll…moving westward at 14 knots.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicates that satellite imagery shows an area of persistent deep convection and strong mid-level circulation.

Upper air analysis depicts a marginal favorable environment, with low to moderately strong wind shear…offset by good poleward outflow.

Sea surface temperatures are warm, along with high ocean heat content…are both conducive for further development.
Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

2.) The second, circled in yellow, is located approximately 325 NM northeast of Honiara, Solomon Islands…moving southeastward 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicates that satellite imagery shows an extensive area of deep convection associated with an elongated low level circulation center.

Upper air analysis depicts strong diffluence and poleward venting.

Weather models indicate that this disturbance will slowly intensify…as it tracks southeastward.

Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low


Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 08E

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.)  Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with a low pressure system centered about 1350 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and if these trends continue, a tropical depression could form later today or tonight while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.)  The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on tropical depression Eight-E, located about 1300 miles east of Hilo Hawaii. The most recent forecast from the NHC has Eight-E crossing 140°W…into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility Thursday morning.

2.)  Isolated thunderstorms are associated with a low pressure system located about 800 miles southeast of Hilo Hawaii. Vertical wind shear is expected to continue inhibiting development over the next couple of days as the low moves west at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 02B

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Jul
29
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

There are no active tropical cyclones in this area. The 5-day outlook indicates that there are no new tropical cyclones expected.

There’s a tropical wave/weak low pressure system now evident a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands…in the far eastern Atlantic. The chance of it developing over the next two days is a low 10%.

There’s continues to be an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which will bring rains to parts of Florida this week. This looping radar image from the Tampa NWS office…shows this rainfall in the Gulf extending over parts of Florida.

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for slow development of this disturbance through the weekend while it moves westward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Jul
28
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 08E is now active in the northeastern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 1325 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 08E

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 08E

Tropical Depression 08E remains active in the northeastern Pacific…likely to briefly become tropical storm Guillermo

Tropical depression 08E was located approximately 1325 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…and has been moving west-northwestward at 15 mph.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the depression continues to lack cloud banding features, and the low level center is located near the northwestern edge of a recent flare-up of deep convection.

The SHIPS diagnostics indicate that 15-20 knots of north-northwesterly wind shear is currently affecting the depression. The shear is expected to decrease gradually after 12-24 hours, but then the cyclone will also be moving into a drier air mass.

The intensity and global models show no or minimal strengthening, but the official forecast still allows for the system to become a tropical storm sometime during the next 24 hours. Dissipation could occur earlier than shown below, with both the GFS and ECMWF models showing the system becoming an open trough by 72 hours.

The subtropical ridge of high pressure continues to steer the depression west-northwestward at about 11 knots. The tropical cyclone is expected to turn westward later today, and maintain that trajectory until it dissipates in three or four days. 

Maximum sustained surface winds at the NHC advisory #4, were 30 knots…with gusts to 40 knots.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 91E, circled in yellow above…which should gradually become more organized

Here’s a
satellite image of this disturbance, in the looping mode…and what the computer models are showing

This area is located about 1200 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…moving westward at about 15 mph.

Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by this weekend.

If this organization and strengthening were to occur, it would take on the title Tropical Depression 09E…and potentially becoming Tropical Storm Hilda next week

It has a low 10% chance of developing during the next 2-days…which increases to a high 90% chance over the next 5-days.

 
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance near the northern Bay of Bengal…which is stretching over India

It’s being referred to as Invest 98B, and is located approximately 95 NM west of Chittagong, Bangladesh. 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicates that satellite imagery shows a partially exposed and well defined low level circulation center, which remains over land.  In addition, all significant convection is located over the periphery of the center, and within the formative cloud banding over the Bay of Bengal

Upper air analysis depicts a marginal environment, with strong 20-30 knot wind shear blowing over the disturbance.

Weather models indicate that this disturbance will remain nearly stationary over the next two days, prior to tracking westward into India.

If the disturbance were to track just slightly southward, the warm waters of the Bay, and good outflow aloft…may allow for rapid development of a tropical cyclone.

Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant TC within the next 24 hours remains medium.


Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 08E

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.)  A broad low pressure system located about 1200 miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by this weekend while it moves westward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Jul
28
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulations

There are no active tropical cyclones in this area, or tropical disturbances that the NHC is investigating at this time. The 5-day outlook indicates that there are no new tropical cyclones expected.

There’s an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which will bring rains to parts of Florida this week. This looping radar image from the Tampa NWS office…shows this rainfall in the Gulf extending over parts of Florida.

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Jul
27
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans…or the Arabian Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

There are two areas of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific Ocean…neither of which is threatening land

The first, circled in red above, is being referred to as Invest 90E, is located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

This tropical disturbance has a high 80% chance of developing over the next 2-days…which remains 80% through the next 5-days

Here’s a
satellite image of its location, the looping version, and finally what the computer models are showing

The second area of disturbed weather, circled in yellow above, is well offshore from the southern Mexican coast

This area is located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja California

It has a low near zero chance of developing during the next 2-days…which increases to a medium 50% chance over the next 5-days.
 
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance in the northern Bay of Bengal…which is stretching over India

It’s being referred to as Invest 98B, and is located approximately 69 NM west of Chittagong, Bangladesh. 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicates that satellite imagery shows a broad area of low pressure along the Bangladesh coastline, with convective cloud bands over the Bay wrapping into the center.

The convective organization of this system has improved significantly during the past 12 hours.

Upper air analysis depicts moderate to strong 20-30 knot wind shear is blowing over the disturbance. This wind shear, in addition to the frictional effects of the nearby land…are the limiting factors inhibiting its current development.

Weather models show this disturbance tracking very slowly westward along the coast into India…over the next 3-days.

If the disturbance were to track just slightly southward, the warm waters of the Bay, and good outflow aloft…may allow for rapid development of a tropical cyclone.

Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant TC within the next 24 hours is medium.


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.)  A well-defined low pressure system is located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become better organized near the center of the low overnight and this morning. If this development trend continues, a tropical depression could form this afternoon or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

2.) A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development while the disturbance moves generally westward this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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