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Jul
29
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), an area of disturbed weather over the central Atlantic Ocean, has become better organized this morning.  

Development of this disturbance is becoming more likely as we move into the middle of the week, however wind shear is still a limiting factor today…as it was yesterday. There continues to be a large area of dry air to the north and northeast of this disturbance as well, some of which is managing to get down into this system. As this system moves west-northwest, it may gradually leave this dry air behind, and move into an area of more favorable environmental conditions.

This area is being referred to as Invest 93L…and is located about 1600 miles east of the Windward Islands.

As the NHC notes, this disturbance will continue moving west-northwestward across the central Atlantic. The NHC is giving this area a high 70% chance of developing over the next two days. They increase this to an  even higher 80% chance over the next five days.

If this west-northwestward motion continues as expected, this system would arrive over the Windward Islands by Friday or Saturday. There’s remains lots of uncertainty as to what this disturbance, or tropical cyclone will do that far out into the future…and beyond.

Here’s a satellite image of this area...along with what the hurricane models are showing.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 1600 miles east of the southern Windward Islands continue to become better organized. This system could develop into a tropical depression later today or tomorrow while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent 

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Jul
28
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Storm 08E (Hernan) is active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 420 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Depression 11W is active in the northwest Pacific…located approximately 304 NM east-southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, Global and 3 hour precipitation totals…for Tropical Storm 08E (Hernan)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, Global clouds and 3 hour precipitation totals…for Tropical Storm 08E (Hernan)

Tropical Storm Hernan is churning the waters of the northeastern Pacific Ocean.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), upper level westerly winds continue to deteriorate the organization of this 8th tropical cyclone of the season. This will limit any further increase in strength…and this storm has reached its peak intensity.  No further strengthening is expected as this wind shear is expected to remain at least moderately strong.

A general northwestward motion is expected through the next 3-4 days. This will keep this weakening storm from threatening the Mexican coast, which will be downgraded to a tropical depression in about 36 hours.

The NHC forecast, shows that Hernan will become a post-tropical low pressure system, steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow…within 48 hours.

Here’s a satellite image of this storm…along with what the hurricane models are showing.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Depression 11W

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Depression 11W

Tropical Depression 11W is about to move just to the north of Guam…through the Marianas Islands.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows persistent deep convection along the western edge of an ill-defined low level circulation center…which is increasing in size.

TD 11W is forecast to continue towards the west-northwest through the next 72 hours, passing just south of Tinian Island…at tropical storm strength.

In the extended outlook period, the system is forecast to track generally northwest, with continued gradual intensification…becoming a typhoon.

The JTWC notes that there is low confidence in the extended forecast track.

 Here’s a satellite image of this TD

Depending upon whether this system remains a tropical depression, or becomes a tropical storm, will make a big difference upon its effects in the Marianas Islands. If it remains a depression, will being some fairly minor winds, and some rain. However, if it strengthens to a tropical storm, the winds would be stronger…and likely the rainfall would be a more serious threat as well.

The way it looks now, it will be a strong tropical depression…or a fairly weak tropical storm.Either way, residents and mariners should be paying close attention to what this tropical cyclones is doing.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, with a low chance of developing…located more or less between the Mexican coast and Hawaii.

This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 93E.

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing.

Given the location of this disturbance, and the warm sea surface temperatures in the area, and what the models are potentially showing…this system could eventually bring increasing moisture to the Hawaiian Islands. As for the winds, it’s too early to know whether this area will bring any to Hawaii at the moment.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

Finally, in the northwestern Pacific, there’s an area of disturbed weather, circled in orange above, that has a medium chance of developing.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is showing this area located about 550 NM southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Satellite imagery shows a very broad and elongated circulation with convection flaring around the outer peripheries…with a poorly defined low level center.

Upper level analysis indicates the disturbance is located in a marginally conducive environment, with moderately strong wind shear…and good outflow.

At the same time, sea surface temperatures are warm and conducive for development.

Sustained surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots (17-23 mph).

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Hernan)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

In addition, the following tropical disturbances are active:

1.) An area of low pressure located about 1350 miles east of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development of this system during the next several days as it moves westward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low…10 percent

2.) An area of low pressure could form well south or southwest of southern Mexico by this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.)  The remnant low of former tropical depression Genevieve is currently located about 715 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions may be somewhat conducive for redevelopment of this system as it continues to move west near 10 mph during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium…30 percent

2.)  An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms is located about 700 miles south southwest of the Big Island of Hawaii. Environmental conditions may be somewhat conducive for development of of a tropical system within this area during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium…30 percent

3.)  An area of low pressure located about 1350 miles east of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development of this system during the next several days as it moves westward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday morning. (CPHC)

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11W

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Jul
28
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), an area of disturbed weather is over the central Atlantic Ocean, moving west at 10-15 knots (12-17 mph).  There is dry Saharan air to the disturbances north…which is limiting convection at the moment.

Gradual development of this disturbance is possible by the middle of the week however, as environmental conditions become more favorable.

This area is being referred to as Invest 93L…and is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

As the NHC notes, this disturbance will continue moving westward across the central Atlantic. The NHC is giving this area a medium 30% chance of developing over the next two days. They increase this to a higher 70% chance over the next five days.

If this westward motion continues as expected, this system would arrive over, or move to the north of the Lesser Antilles towards Friday or Saturday. There’s lots of uncertainty as to what this disturbance, or tropical cyclone will do that far out into the future…and beyond.

Here’s a satellite image of this area...along with what the hurricane models are showing.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next
several days while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Jul
25
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Storm 07E (Genevieve) is active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 1420 miles east-southeast of South Point, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, and Global Clouds…for Tropical Storm 07E (Genevieve)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, and Global Clouds…for Tropical Storm 07E (Genevieve)

Newly formed Tropical Storm Genevieve is now spinning in the northeastern Pacific Ocean.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), upper level westerly winds are impinging on this 7th tropical cyclone of the season. This will limit any further increase in strength, and likely this storm has reached its peak intensity.  No further strengthening is expected as this wind shear is expected to increase…and more even closer to Genevieve.

A general westward motion is expected through the next 5 days. This will keep this soon to be weakening storm, which will be downgraded to a tropical depression in about 72 hours, from threatening the Hawaiian Islands…as it remains south of 15 degrees north latitude.

During the later portion of the NHC forecast, Genevieve will likely become a post-tropical low pressure system, steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow.

The northern fringe of whatever clouds and showers are left, in association with this low pressure system…may bring increasing rainfall to some parts of the Hawaiian islands with time.

Here’s a satellite image of this storm…along with what the hurricane models are showing.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone 07E (Genevieve) and two areas of tropical disturbance (circled in orange) with a medium chance of developing ...and another circled in yellow with a low chance of developing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Storm 07E (Genevieve) and two tropical disturbances (circled in orange) with a medium chance of developing …and another (circled in yellow) with a low chance of developing

Meanwhile, there are two tropical disturbances, one circled in orange above, with a medium chance of developing…and the other to the east, closer to Mexico, that has a low chance of developing.

It’s obvious that the northeastern Pacific continues to be ripe for additional tropical cyclone activity, especially considering that there’s already been 7 tropical cyclones this early in the season, and these additional disturbances now trailing TS Genevieve…keep popping-up.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

Finally, in the northwestern Pacific, there’s an area of disturbed weather, circled in orange above, that has a medium chance of developing.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is showing this area located about 34 NM east-southeast of Koror, Palau.

Satellite imagery shows persistent deep thunderstorm activity associated with a consolidating low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates the disturbance is located in a favorable environment…with low to moderately strong wind shear.

At the same time, sea surface temperatures are warm and conducive for development.

Sustained surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots (17-23 mph).

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Genevieve)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1.) An area of low pressure located a little more than a thousand miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower activity. There is some potential for development during the next day or two before the environment becomes unfavorable. The system is forecast to move toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2.) A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, associated with a tropical wave, continues well south of the coast of southern Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become a little more favorable for development of this system over the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of southeastern Mexico late this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1. A disorganized area of low pressure located about 900 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continued to produce widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad area. This system may develop during the next few days as it moves westward across the central Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium…30 percent.

2. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed tropical storm Genevieve, located about 1400 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system is expected to cross 140°W into the central Pacific ocean sometime late Saturday or early Sunday.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through late Saturday night. (CPHC)

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Jul
25
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

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