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Oct
19
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Lan) is located about 589 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Tropical Cyclone 26W is located about 283 NM southwest of Manila, Philippines – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, Wind Radii, Global Clouds for TY 25W (Lan), and retiring TD 26W, and a tropical disturbance near Guam

Typhoon 25W (Lan) is strengthening over the Philippine Sea…and should clip the Japanese islands near Tokyo

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite images show the associated deep convection has decreased, although the central bands remain tightly wrapped into a large, well defined circulation center.

Environment analysis indicates that the system is in an area of low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear, which is offset by excellent radial outflow. Additionally, TY 25W is tracking over an area of very warm sea surface temperatures, and high ocean heat content.

Typhoon 25W is forecast to track northward over the next 24-36 hours. Environmental conditions will remain very favorable…leading to a possible rapid intensification, reaching a peak intensity of 110 knots.

After 48 hours, TY Lan will gradually weaken, as it moves into an area of increasing wind shear. After 72 hours it is expected to brush the coastal area near Tokyo.

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #17 were 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots

>>> Tropical Cyclone 26W is already dissipating over the Philippine Islands – Final Warning

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows the system has become disorganized as the low level circulation unraveled, and the convection has sheared westward.

Upper air analysis indicates indicates the system is in an area of strong 25 knot easterly wind shear, and subsidence associated with the outflow from typhoon 25W to the east-northeast.

Tropical Depression 26W is forecast to dissipate within 12 hours, due to the harsh environment…as it drags across the central Philippines.

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #3 were 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance (circled in red above) which is being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 245 east-northeast of Guam

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images persistent convection located directly over a broad low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…with warm sea surface temperatures below as well.

Global model track and intensity guidance differs greatly over the next several days. Some show an eastward track turning north…with gradual intensification. Others predict southeastward motion…and little to no consolidation.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

PDC Disaster Alert displaying Global Clouds layer…and a tropical disturbance

>>> Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance (circled in orange above) which is being referred to as Invest 98B…located approximately 490 NM south of Kolkata, India

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show an elongated low level circulation with convection primarily located to the northeast.

The disturbance is currently located in a favorable environment, due to divergence aloft, low 10-15 knot wind shear, and high sea surface temperatures…with higher values towards the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal.

Global models are split as to the degree of intensification and organization prior to landfall, with some model runs not predicting 98B reaching tropical depression strength.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 25W (Lan)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 26W Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Oct
19
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert…displaying Global Clouds layer

Tropical Cyclone Activity is not expected for the time being, nor are any tropical disturbances under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

Atlantic Ocean

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Oct
18
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Lan) is located about 404 NM north-northwest of Kayangel

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, Wind Radii, Global Clouds, and a 5-day error cone for TY 25W (Lan), a tropical disturbance in the South China Sea…and another in the South Indian Ocean

Typhoon 25W (Lan) is strengthening over the Philippine Sea…and will become a super typhoon with time

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite images show broad deep convective banding most prevalent on the southern periphery, wrapping into a partially exposed low level circulation center.

Environment conditions aloft…and at the ocean surface below are very favorable.

Typhoon 25W is forecast to accelerate north-northwestward over the next 36 hours. Environmental conditions will remain very favorable…as the system reaches super typhoon strength by 48 hours.

TY Lan will weaken, although remain a significant typhoon…as it generally heads towards the Kyoto and Tokyo area of the Japanese Islands.

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #13 were 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots

 

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance (circled in red above) which is being referred to as Invest 94W…located approximately 443 NM southwest of Manila, Philippines

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict a consolidating low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates good diffluence aloft, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…along with warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are not indicating the possibility of development in the next 24 hours, and enhanced southwesterly flow feeds into the circulation. However, the system should remain fairly weak and short-lived, as it tracks eastward and gets absorbed into nearby Typhoon 25W.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 18-23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

>>> Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance (circled in orange above) which is being referred to as Invest 98B…located approximately 345 NM southeast of Visakhapatnam, India

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show convection displaced over the western semi-circle, and the low level flow wrapping into a partially exposed center.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment, with weak easterly diffluent flow.

Invest 98B is located in an area of low to moderate 20 knot wind shear. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures are warm with higher values towards the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal.

Global models indicate a gradual intensification as the system tracks northwestward to northward over the next 2-days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 25W (Lan)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Oct
18
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

Tropical Cyclone Activity is not expected for the time being, nor are any tropical disturbances under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

Atlantic Ocean

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Oct
17
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

Tropical Cyclone Activity is not expected for the time being, nor are any tropical disturbances under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

Atlantic Ocean

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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