Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

Jul
25
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Storm 07E (Genevieve) is active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 1420 miles east-southeast of South Point, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, and Global Clouds…for Tropical Storm 07E (Genevieve)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, and Global Clouds…for Tropical Storm 07E (Genevieve)

Newly formed Tropical Storm Genevieve is now spinning in the northeastern Pacific Ocean.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), upper level westerly winds are impinging on this 7th tropical cyclone of the season. This will limit any further increase in strength, and likely this storm has reached its peak intensity.  No further strengthening is expected as this wind shear is expected to increase…and more even closer to Genevieve.

A general westward motion is expected through the next 5 days. This will keep this soon to be weakening storm, which will be downgraded to a tropical depression in about 72 hours, from threatening the Hawaiian Islands…as it remains south of 15 degrees north latitude.

During the later portion of the NHC forecast, Genevieve will likely become a post-tropical low pressure system, steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow.

The northern fringe of whatever clouds and showers are left, in association with this low pressure system…may bring increasing rainfall to some parts of the Hawaiian islands with time.

Here’s a satellite image of this storm…along with what the hurricane models are showing.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone 07E (Genevieve) and two areas of tropical disturbance (circled in orange) with a medium chance of developing ...and another circled in yellow with a low chance of developing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Storm 07E (Genevieve) and two tropical disturbances (circled in orange) with a medium chance of developing …and another (circled in yellow) with a low chance of developing

Meanwhile, there are two tropical disturbances, one circled in orange above, with a medium chance of developing…and the other to the east, closer to Mexico, that has a low chance of developing.

It’s obvious that the northeastern Pacific continues to be ripe for additional tropical cyclone activity, especially considering that there’s already been 7 tropical cyclones this early in the season, and these additional disturbances now trailing TS Genevieve…keep popping-up.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

Finally, in the northwestern Pacific, there’s an area of disturbed weather, circled in orange above, that has a medium chance of developing.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is showing this area located about 34 NM east-southeast of Koror, Palau.

Satellite imagery shows persistent deep thunderstorm activity associated with a consolidating low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates the disturbance is located in a favorable environment…with low to moderately strong wind shear.

At the same time, sea surface temperatures are warm and conducive for development.

Sustained surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots (17-23 mph).

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Genevieve)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1.) An area of low pressure located a little more than a thousand miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower activity. There is some potential for development during the next day or two before the environment becomes unfavorable. The system is forecast to move toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2.) A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, associated with a tropical wave, continues well south of the coast of southern Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become a little more favorable for development of this system over the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of southeastern Mexico late this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1. A disorganized area of low pressure located about 900 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continued to produce widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad area. This system may develop during the next few days as it moves westward across the central Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium…30 percent.

2. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed tropical storm Genevieve, located about 1400 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system is expected to cross 140°W into the central Pacific ocean sometime late Saturday or early Sunday.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through late Saturday night. (CPHC)

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Jul
25
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Jul
24
2014

Hazard Highlights

Chikungunya Cases on the Rise; Update on Ebola

Mosquito-Borne Illness Spreads across the Americas

072414

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Air Surface Temperature and Precipitation Accumulation (7 Day) layers.

In December 2013, the first cases of the mosquito-borne illness Chikungunya in the Americas were reported during an outbreak in the Caribbean (CDC). As of July 18, local transmission (infections spread to humans through mosquitoes in the area) had been identified in 24 countries or territories in the Caribbean, Central America, South America, or North America, with a total 436,586 suspected and 5,724 confirmed cases reported from these areas (CDC,PAHO).

Currently, there is no specific treatment or vaccine for Chikungunya, and protection against mosquito bites is the only effective means of preventing the illness. One means of prevention and control of transmission is reducing natural and artificial water-filled container habitats that support mosquito breeding. Basic precautions during travel to risk areas include use of repellents, wearing long sleeves and pants, and ensuring that rooms are fitted with screens to prevent mosquitoes from entering (WHO).

072414

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Active Hazards and Population Density (LANDSCAN) layers.

The World Health Organization continues to monitor the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea (WHO). As of July 20, the confirmed cases of Ebola had reached 1,093 in the three countries, which includes 660 deaths from the virus. The outbreak was first reported in March 2014 in areas of south eastern Guinea (ReliefWeb). EVD is transmitted by direct contact with the blood and body fluids of infected people and animals, and it is believed that the West African epidemic started when the virus crossed over from infected wildlife into the human population (FAO).

Current Hazard Warnings

Drought: Honduras (Southern), Nicaragua (Northern), Guatemala (Central), United States (Southwest, Pacific)

Wildfire: United States (Oregon, Washington), Canada (British Columbia)

Flood: Argentina, India, Brazil, United States (North Dakota)

Earthquake: Fiji

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the Global Hazards Atlas page.

Jul
24
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of tropical disturbance with a low chance (circled in yellow) of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of tropical disturbance with a low chance (circled in yellow) of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Here’s a NASA satellite image of the Tropical cyclone 10W (Matmo) in the Western Pacific.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…with three areas of tropical disturbances, with a high chance (red), medium chance (orange), and a low chance (yellow), of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…with three areas of tropical disturbances, with a high chance (red), medium chance (orange), and a low chance (yellow), of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Here’s a satellite image of this area.

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area located about 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little this morning and the associated thunderstorm activity is currently not well organized. However, environmental conditions still appear conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to limit the development chances by the weekend. (NHC)
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues well south of the coast of southeastern Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for development of this system over the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. (NHC)
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…60 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form during the next couple of days roughly 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of this system is possible by the weekend while it moves to the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. (NHC)
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Yet another area of low pressure could form well south of southeastern Mexico by early next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time. (NHC)
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 20 percent.

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

A disorganized area of low pressure located about 975 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad area. This system may develop during the next few days as it moves westward across the central Pacific.* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 30 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday morning. (CPHC)

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Jul
24
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

Here’s a satellite image of this area.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Older posts «