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Sep
16
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Odile) remains active over Baja California…located approximately 15 miles southeast of Bahia De Los Angeles, Mexico – Tropical Storm

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Polo) is now active offshore of southern Mexico…located approximately 275 miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico - Tropical Storm

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kalmaegi) is getting ready to move inland over northern Vietnam…located approximately 118 miles
east of Hanoi, Vietnam – Typhoon

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and 3 hour precipitation accumulationfor Tropical Cyclone 15E (Odile)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and 3 hour precipitation accumulation (red color indicates heaviest precipitation) for Tropical Cyclone 15E (Odile)

Tropical cyclone 15E (Odile) continues to bring very heavy rainfall to the Baja California Peninsula, into the Gulf of California…and is now entering the U.S. southwest

This hurricane peaked at category 3 level when it impacted Baja California…although now has been downgraded to a tropical storm…as the mountainous terrain has quickly weakened it.

Here’s a NASA satellite image taken today of weakening tropical storm Odile.

Here’s the Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery from CIMSS (MIMIC)

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Odile is located approximately 15 miles southeast of Bahia De Los Angeles, Mexico…and is moving north-northwestward at near 12 mph.

Sustained winds are now down to 50 mph, with higher gusts

The convective cloud pattern of Odile has become ragged looking since the previous advisory, accompanied by significant warming of the cloud tops. The low-level circulation is still inland near the east-central coast of the Baja California peninsula. 

TS Odile should move northward around the western periphery of a ridge of high pressure, and later move over the Gulf of California…then turn toward the northeast on Wednesday and move inland over northwestern Mexico.

Odile will be moving across the very warm waters of the northern Gulf of California in the 12-24 hour period, which is expected to briefly slow the weakening process. In fact, some of the models actually show some slight restrengthening in 24 hours. By 36 and 48 hours, Odile is forecast to rapidly degenerate to a remnant low pressure system inland over northwestern Mexico, with dissipation expected by 72 hours, if not sooner.

Moisture is forecast to be pushed northward by Odile’s circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow motion of Odile, or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San Felipe Mexico…due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing trapped water into the coastal regions of the Gulf.

A flash flood watch is posted for Phoenix and Tucson Arizona. An outer spiral cloud band of Odile was over Southeast Arizona this morning, which caused a thunderstorm between Tucson and Phoenix…whose high winds derailed a train near Picacho. [Weather Underground]

Here’s a precipitation model showing the forecast for rainfall associated with this weakening tropical storm

Here’s a satellite image of this storm…along with what the computer models are showing.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 17E (Polo)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 17E (Polo)

Tropical cyclone 17E (Polo) has formed offshore of southern Mexico…and may bring heavy rains to the west coast of Mexico

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Polo is located approximately 275 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico…and is moving northwestward at near 12 mph.

Sustained winds are estimated  to be 40 mph, with higher gusts.

Microwave data earlier today indicated that the center of Polo was to the north of the main convection due to moderate northeasterly wind shear. Since that time, the thunderstorm activity has increased near the center despite the shear, but the cloud pattern is still somewhat disrupted.

The ocean is plenty warm in that area, and with the wind shear expected to decrease, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about 48 hours.

At this time, the NHC forecast keep TS Polo on a track parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico. Polo is expected to turn to the west by the end of the forecast period, as a ridge of high pressure to the north rebuilds.

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes.

This 17th tropical cyclone of the season is expected to head northwest towards the Pacific coast of Mexico into Wednesday, and could bring heavy rains of 4-8 inches of rain to the coast near Manzanillo through Friday.

Here’s a satellite image...along with what the computer models are showing for this strengthening tropical cyclone.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kalmaegi)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kalmaegi)

Tropical cyclone 15W (Kalmaegi) remains active in the South China Sea, clipping southern China…and then on towards Vietnam

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows this typhoon has maintained its current structure and intensity…as it quickly approaches the northern coast of Vietnam

Upper level analysis indicates the system is located in an area of low wind shear.

Typhoon 15W is expected to track west-northwest…as it moves inland over Vietnam

Warm sea surface temperatures and favorable environmental conditions are expected to persist leading to a short increase in strength…reaching 75 knots with gusts to near 90 knots within 12 hours

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of JTWC warning #24, are estimated at 70 knots, with gusts to near 85 knots

As Kalmaegi moves inland over Vietnam, the system is expected to weaken rapidly…dissipation is expected within 48 hours.

Here’s a satellite image of this typhoon.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the northeastern Pacific

 This area circled in yellow above, located approximately 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii…has a low chance of developing over the next 48 hours…remaining low over the next 5 days.

 Here’s a satellite image of this area…located just to the right of the 140W line of longitude, and just north of 10 north.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

There’s also a small area of disturbed weather to the south-southeast of the Big Island…in the central Pacific

This area is located about 900 miles away from the Big Island, and is moving westward. This track would keep any threat of danger to the Hawaiian Islands at a minimum.

The CPHC is giving this area a low chance of developing over the next two days.

Here’s a satellite image of this area.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwest Pacific…with a medium chance of developing

This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 96W, which is located approximately 174 NM north of Yap.

Satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating low level circulation center…along with flaring deep thunderstorm activity.

Upper air analysis shows a favorable environment, with low to moderately strong wind shear.

Sea surface temperatures are conducive for development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The JTWC is giving this area a medium chance of developing over the next 24 hours.

Here’s a satellite image of this area.

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 15E (Odile) 

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 17E (Polo) 

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

1.)  Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low pressure located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii have changed little in organization during the past several hours. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days..medium…30 percent

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.)  An area of showers and thunderstorms is centered about 900 miles south-southeast of Hilo Hawaii. There is a low potential for development of this system as it moves west slowly.

*formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 15W (Kalmaegi) 

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Sep
16
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 06L (Edouard) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 420 miles east of Bermuda - Category 3 Major Hurricane

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 06L (Edouard)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 06L (Edouard)

Hurricane Edouard is the first major hurricane of the season, located about 420 miles east of Bermuda…which is peaking in strengthen now

Here’s a NASA satellite image of this impressive hurricanealong with a looping satellite image

At the time of NHC advisory #21, sustained winds were estimated to be 115 mph…with higher gusts

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), satellite images show that Edouard has an impressive satellite presentation, displaying a well-defined eye within the central dense overcast.

Edouard has been upgraded to a major hurricane, the first of its kind since the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season…and the first category 3 or greater hurricane in the basin since hurricane Sandy on October 25, 2012.

Edouard is expected to reach its peak intensity within the next 12-18 hours while it remains in light wind shear conditions and over warm waters. A combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures, and increasing wind shear should cause the hurricane to start a steady weakening by late tomorrow.

Edouard is expected to become post-tropical by day 4, but this transition could even occur around day 3…due to rather cool sea waters in this tropical cyclone’s path. Edouard remains located to the west of the subtropical high pressure system, and will turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude prevailing westerlies during the next 24-36 hours. An eastward acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5…when it approaches the west side of a low pressure system between Portugal and the Azores.

The interaction of the low and the tropical cyclone is causing the model guidance to become more divergent at long range…with the models taking the cyclone well north of the Azores.

Open ocean vessels should be steering clear of this very dangerous hurricane. Fortunately there are no land or island areas that are coming under threat from this major hurricane.

Here’s what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 06L (Edouard)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday and produce an area of low pressure over the far eastern
Atlantic.  Conditions appear conducive for some development of this
system by late this week while it moves west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones 

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Sep
15
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Odile) remains active over Baja California…located approximately 45 miles east-northeast
of Cabo San Lazardo, Mexico – Category 1 hurricane

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kalmaegi) remains active in the South China Sea…located approximately 204 miles
south of Hong Kong – Typhoon

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15E (Odile)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15E (Odile)

Tropical cyclone 15E (Odile) has impacted southern Baja California…bringing very heavy weather and pounding high surf conditions

This hurricane was at category 3 level when it impacted Baja California…with 125 mph winds and higher gusts.

Here’s the Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery from CIMSS (MIMIC)

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Odile is located approximately 45 miles east-northeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico…and is moving northwestward at near 13 mph.

Sustained winds are now down to 90 mph, which makes this hurricane a category 1 hurricane

Satellite images indicate that the center of Hurricane Odile is just inland along the west coast of Baja California Sur north of Santa Fe. The eye is still apparent in the microwave images, and much of the low level circulation is still over water…on both sides of the Baja peninsula. 

Odile is expected to move slowly northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours, remaining inland over the Baja California peninsula. As Odile rounds the western portion of a ridge of high pressure, located over northern Mexico…this tropical cyclone is expected to emerge over the northern Gulf of California. Thereafter, it will move inland over northwestern Mexico as a remnant low pressure system.  

Due to the expected prolonged interaction with the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula, the surface winds are forecast to rapidly decrease during the next 48 hours. However, it is important to note that the circulation aloft will not weaken as quickly as the low-level flow and, as a result, wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains can often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory. In some elevated locations, the winds can be even greater.

Strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of Odile. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico is forecast to be shifted by Odile’s circulation northwestward…across Mexico into the southwestern United States during the next few days. These factors, in combination with Odile’s eventual slow forward speed, will likely result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA ROSALIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF THE
HURRICANE CONDITIONS...AND OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN
MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

Here’s a
satellite image of this storm…along with what the computer models are showing.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kalmaegi)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kalmaegi)

Tropical cyclone 15W (Kalmaegi) remains active in the South China Sea, heading towards Hainan Island, China…and then on towards Vietnam

Satellite imagery shows curved convective cloud banding wrapping into a defined low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is located in an area of low to moderately strong (15-25 knot) northeasterly wind shear…offset by strong equatorward outflow.

Typhoon 15W is expected to track west-northwest through the next 72 hours.

Warm sea surface temperatures and favorable environmental conditions are expected to persist leading to a short increase in strength…reaching 75 knots with gusts to near 90 knots within 12 hours

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of JTWC warning #20, are estimated at 70 knots, with gusts to near 85 knots

TS Kalmaegi is forecast to cross the northern part of Hainan Island, China, which will cause some weakening. As Kalmaegi approaches the coast of Vietnam, the system is expected to further weaken as it tracks inland. Dissipation is expected within 72 hours.

Here’s a satellite image of this typhoon

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s two areas of disturbed weather in the northeastern Pacific

The most dynamic of these is being referred to as Invest 97E, circled in orange (now red) above…located about 500 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico 

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical disturbance.

(Latest update) It has a high 60% chance of developing within the next 48 hours…which increases to a high 80% chance over the next 5 days.

>>> The second area circled in yellow above, located approximately 1400 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii…has a low chance of developing over the next 48 hours…remaining low over the next 5 days.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwest Pacific

This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 96W, which is located approximately 125 NM southwest of Guam.

Satellite imagery shows a broad, but disorganized low level circulation center, with fragmented cloud banding.

Surface observations from Guam shows easterly sustained winds of 10-15 knots.

Upper air analysis shows a marginal environment, with low northerly wind shear.

Weather models suggest a slow development over the next few days.

The JTWC is giving this area a low chance of developing over the next 24 hours.

Here’s a satellite image of this area.

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 15E (Odile) 

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

1.)  An elongated low pressure system located about 500 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this disturbance will likely become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest.

 * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

2.)  A weak area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible while the low moves generally northwestward during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 15W (Kalmaegi) 

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Sep
15
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 06L (Edouard) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 665 miles east-southeast of the Bermuda - Category 2 Hurricane

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 06L (Edouard)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 06L (Edouard)

Hurricane Edouard is the 6th tropical cyclone of the season, the strongest hurricane thus far, located about 665 miles east of Bermuda…which continues to strengthen

Here’s a satellite image of this impressive hurricanealong with a looping satellite image

At the time of NHC advisory #17, sustained winds were estimated to be 105 mph…with higher gusts. The forecast calls for this category 2 hurricane to strengthen into a category 3 hurricane in about 24 hours.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), satellite images show that the eye of Edouard has become larger and more distinct during the past few hours.

Three NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft are currently en route to investigate Edouard, and will provide excellent data to help assess its intensity and structure.

Hurricane Edouard has been moving on a steady northwestward path at about 13 knots for the past 24 hours, but a gradual turn toward the north is expected during the next day or so. By late Tuesday and Wednesday, Edouard is forecast to be embedded in the mid latitude prevailing westerlies, causing it to accelerate to the northeast. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the east or southeast is predicted by the end of the forecast period.

Some further strengthening appears likely during the next 24 to 36 hours, while the hurricane remains in favorable environmental conditions. Beyond that time, cooler sea water temperatures, dry air, and a pronounced increase in wind shear aloft, should cause the system to weaken steadily.

Open ocean vessels should be steering clear of this very dangerous hurricane.

Here’s what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 06L (Edouard)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones 

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Sep
12
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical storm 15E (Odile) remains active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 250 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico

Tropical Depression 16E remains active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 785 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Storm 15W (Kalmaegi) remains active in the northwest Pacific…located approximately 508 miles east of Manila, Philippines

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 15E and 16E

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 15E and 16E

Tropical cyclone 15E (Odile) is strengthening…although is remaining a good distance offshore from the Mexican coast

Here’s a NASA satellite image showing both 15E and 16E.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Odile is located approximately 250 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico…and is drifting westward at near 2 mph.

Recent satellite imagery shows that deep convection, with associated very cold cloud tops, continues to form over the surface center. 

The NHC intensity forecast is an update, with only a slight increased adjustment through 48 hours…to reflect the increasingly favorable upper level wind environment.

Odile continues to drift westward this morning within weak mid level steering flow. Odile is expected to gradually accelerate northwestward through the remaining portion of the forecast. 

Steady strengthening is expected for at least the next few days, attaining category 1 hurricane status within 24 hours. It appears that Odile will be able to strengthen into a category 2 hurricane as it parallels the southern Mexican coast…remaining well offshore.

TS Odile’s heavy rains are remaining offshore of Mexico as the storm moves northwest, paralleling the coast. Moisture flowing northward from Odile’s circulation may bring flooding rains to Northern Mexico…and the Southwest United States later next week.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURF…SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

Here’s a satellite image of this storm…along with what the computer models are showing.

 
>>> T
ropical cyclone 16E remains active well to the west of Odile…and may get engulfed by this much larger tropical storm

According to the NHC, the center of this weak tropical cyclone is very difficult to find on geostationary images. However, first-light visible pictures suggest that the low level circulation is poorly defined.

The unfavorable influence of the much larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile, centered about 800 NM to the east of the depression, should prevent significant strengthening. As in previous forecast reasoning, it is expected that tis depression will dissipate in a few days, if not sooner…by being absorbed by Odile.

An eastward motion is likely to begin within a day or so, while the tropical cyclone begins to become entrained into Odile’s circulation. Some increase in forward speed is likely in a couple of days as Odile exerts an increasing influence on the steering of the depression.

Here’s a satellite view of this system…along with what the computer models are showing. 

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15W

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15W

Tropical cyclone 15W (Kalmaegi) remains active in the Philippine Sea, heading towards Luzon Island, Philippines…becoming a typhoon within 24 hours

Satellite imagery shows increased deep convection consolidating around the low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is located in an area of low to moderately strong (10-20 knot) wind shear…offset by excellent equatorward outflow.

TS 15W is expected to track west to west-northwest. In addition, warm sea surface temperatures and favorable environmental conditions are expected to persist leading to an increase in strength. This should promote a jump to typhoon intensity within 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 40 knots, with gusts to near 50 knots as of  JTWC warning #8.

TS Kalmaegi is forecast to make landfall over eastern Luzon Island within 48 hours, which should weaken the system due to the physical terrain features there. Nonetheless, heavy rains and blustery winds will cause transportation problems over the Philippines…while high surf will pound the northeast and easterly coasts of Luzon Island.

The extended forecast brings 15W over the warm waters of the South China Sea, allowing further strengthening. Thereafter, there’s a forecast of weakening…as it approaches the southern coast of China.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

Finally, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather located about 800 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii…with a low chance of developing

It’s moving away from the Hawaiian islands…and poses no threat.

Here’s a satellite image of this area.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 15E (Odile) 

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 16E

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

1.) An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southeastern Mexico by early next week. Conditions appear conducive for some development of this system thereafter, while it moves slowly west-northwestward.

 * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.)  An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a surface trough about 800 miles west-southwest of Honolulu Hawaii. There is a low potential for slow development of this system as it moves west slowly.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…near 10 percent

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 15W (Kalmaegi) 

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

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