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Sep
28
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 21W (Chaba) is now active over the northwest Pacific…located about 32 NM north-northeast of Andersen AFB, Guam

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Roslyn) remains active over the northeast Pacific…located about 365 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 19E (Ulika) remains active over the Pacific…located about 1140 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, for Tropical Cyclone Chaba

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, for Tropical Cyclone Chaba

Tropical Depression 21W (Chaba) is active as it passes just north of Guam

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version …along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s the NWS Guam Radar Image

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depicts a weakening in the convection sheared to the west and southwest of an ill-defined low level circulation center.

TD Chaba is located in a marginal environment with moderate easterly wind shear and weak divergence aloft. However sea surface temperatures are favorably warm.

This TC will move westward and then northwestward. There will be a slow intensification over the next two days. Afterwards, improved upper level outflow and low wind shear will cause an increased rate of strengthening, allowing Chaba to reach typhoon intensity within 72 hours.

In the extended period, TD 21W will continue to track northwestward. By the end of the forecast period, the system will turn poleward. There’s a chance that Chaba may undergo a period of rapid intensification due to warmer sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and increased outflow.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclones Roslyn and Ulika

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclones Roslyn and Ulika

Tropical Depression 18E (Roslyn) remains active…well offshore from the Mexican coast

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TD Roslyn is moving towards the northeast at near 10 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TD Roslyn has been weakening. Deep convection associated with the cyclone dissipated late yesterday, and only a few puffs of new convection have redeveloped but are well removed to the northeast of the center.  

With southwesterly wind shear of around 30 knots, increasing atmospheric stability and an extremely dry environment, along with much cooler waters along the path of the cyclone, further weakening is likely.

TD Roslyn is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today, and the current intensity forecast is in good agreement with the guidance. 

To the extent that Roslyn remains a coupled cyclone, the motion should gradually turn northward today around a cut-off low well southwest of the California coast. A turn toward the northwest is expected once the cyclone become a shallower feature, and its motion is governed by the low-level flow.

>>> Tropical Storm 19E (Ulika) remains active over the open ocean…with no land being threatened

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 19E is moving towards the north-northeast at near 7 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Ulika’s environment already appears to have become much less favorable. West-southwesterly to southwesterly wind shear is only likely to increase, as the cyclone gains latitude during the next couple of days. In fact, the SHIPS model output indicates more than 30 knots of wind shear by 36 hours.

This, combined with a marginally moist environment and an increasingly convergent flow aloft, means that steady weakening is most likely. Global models show Ulika being sheared apart in about 2 days, with the mid-level center racing northeastward away from the low-level center.

Rapid weakening should occur by then, if it has not begun already, and remnant low status is forecast in 72 hours.

Ulika should turn northward soon, and once the system decouples fully, the shallower cyclone’s motion will be governed by the low-level trade wind flow and turn westward with an increase in forward speed.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Roslyn)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Tropical Cyclone 19E (Ulika)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

1.)  Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located near the southwestern coast of Mexico have increased since yesterday. Upper-level winds are expected to only marginally conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next several days while this disturbance moves west-northwestward and then westward away from the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 21W (Chaba)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Sep
28
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone (14L) Matthew is now active…located about 25 miles southwest of St. Lucia

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts for Tropical Cyclone Matthew

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts for Tropical Cyclone Matthew

Tropical Storm 14L (Matthew) is now active in the Lesser Antilles Islands

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 14L is moving towards the west at near 20 mph.

The center of the storm will pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon, with the storm’s strongest winds and heaviest rains of 4-8 inches affecting the islands just north of the center, including St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, and Guadaloupe.

The storm will continue westwards on Thursday, and make its closest approach to the Netherlands Antilles of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao Thursday night and Friday morning. These islands will be on the weaker side of the storm, and likely won’t receive tropical storm winds, though rains of 1-2 inches can be expected.

Residents of Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba should anticipate the possibility of a hurricane affecting that area early next week

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave passing through the Windward Islands has acquired a closed circulation.  As a result, advisories are being initiated on a 50 knot tropical storm.

The current lack of inner core structure suggests that further strengthening should be limited today, but environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low wind shear ahead of Matthew, favor intensification throughout the remainder of the forecast period. 

Matthew should move westward across the eastern Caribbean during the next few days. After that time, the tropical cyclone will take a northwestward turn, although there are significant differences among the track models as to when the turn takes place and how sharp it will be.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Matthew.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands witin the next few hours and continue into this evening.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 14L (Matthew)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Sep
27
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Megi) remains is active over the northwest Pacific…located about 141 NM west of Taipei, Taiwan – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Roslyn) remains active over the northeast Pacific…located about 515 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 19E (Ulika) remains active over the Pacific…located about 1135 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, for Tropical Cyclone Megi

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, for now retired Tropical Cyclone Megi

Typhoon 20W (Megi) is dissipating…after having moved over Taiwan, and now having moved inland over the Chinese east coast

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version …along with what the computer models are showing.

This satellite image shows Typhoon Megi as it struck the east coast of Taiwan

Here’s the radar image of this dangerous typhoon, heading towards the Chinese coast

TY Megi is the third major typhoon to affect Taiwan in the last two weeks, following Super Typhoon Meranti (which passed just southwest of the island) and Typhoon Malakas (which passed just to the northeast).

Taiwan averages 3 to 4 typhoon strikes per year, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depicts the center  of circulation emerging off the west coast of Taiwan into the Taiwan Strait.

Upper air analysis reveals an environment with good outflow and light to moderately strong 15-20 knots of wind shear.

TY 20W is forecast to continue tracking west-northwestward across the Taiwan Strait, before making a final landfall in eastern China within 6-12 hours.

This system is forecast to weaken rapidly over the next 36 hours due to land interactions and frictional effects over mainland China. TC Megi will fully dissipate with 36 hours well north of Hong Kong.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #19 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots.

Quickly increasing to Category 4 status just before landfall, Typhoon Magi slammed into central Taiwan Tuesday evening local time. CNN reported least four deaths and more than 300 injuries, with close to 2.7 million homes without power. Megi’s top winds were assessed at 115 knots (132 mph) by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Meg came ashore near Hualien City, Taiwan

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with a tropical disturbance which has a medium chance of developing within 2-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with a tropical disturbance which has a medium chance of developing within 2-days

Meanwhile, and area of convection circled in orange above, is being referred to as Invest 98W, and is located approximately 500 NM east of Anderson AB, Guam.

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what a computer model is showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery reveal a partially exposed low level circulation center, with deep convection along the southern semi-circle.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with weak outflow and light to moderately strong 15-20 knot wind shear.

Global models show limited development over the next 24-48 hours, as the system tracks westward towards Guam.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to medium.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclone Roslyn

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclone Roslyn

Tropical Storm 18E (Roslyn) remains active…well offshore from the Mexican coast

Tropical Storm Roslyn, the seventeenth named storm of this very busy 2016 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. An average season in the Eastern Pacific has just fifteen named storms during the year.

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS Roslyn is moving towards the northeast at near 7 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Roslyn continues to be affected by strong southwesterly wind shear. Roslyn should slowly weaken due to increasing southwesterly shear, gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures, and dry mid-level air that is wrapping around the western portion of the circulation.

The updated NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and calls for Roslyn to become a remnant low in 36 hours, and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

The tropical storm is forecast to turn northward by tonight. By late Wednesday, a weaker and more vertically shallow Roslyn is expected to turn northwestward.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Storm Ulika

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Storm Ulika

Tropical Storm 19E (Ulika) remains active over the open ocean…with no land being threatened

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 19E is moving towards the northeast at near 5 mph

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Ulika (oo-Lee-kah) has become better organized overnight, with persistent deep convection being maintained over the low-level circulation center. Microwave imagery support a strengthening system, showing an eyewall feature developing.

Based on the improving satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 knots with this advisory. The system is expected to continue to track toward the northeast through tonight.

TS Ulika is expected to make a turn toward the north on Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the west Thursday as increasing westerly wind shear results in a more shallow system steered by the low level trade wind flow.

The system is expected to continue on a westward track with a gradual increase in forward speed through the end of the week, and weaken into a remnant low on Friday or Friday night.

Some intensification of Ulika is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours as the system remains over a warm sea, with minimal dry air entrainment, and weak wind shear. In fact, SHIPS model shows a 35 percent probability of rapid intensification of 25 knots or more in 24 hours, so the system could increase more than currently forecast.

Wind shear is then forecast to increase Wednesday through Thursday as upper level winds strengthen over the system. This should lead to steady weakening, with the tropical cyclone becoming a remnant low Friday or Friday night.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Roslyn)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Tropical Cyclone 19E (Ulika)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

1.)  An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred south or south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system later this week and weekend while the low moves generally west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Megi) Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Sep
27
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…with a tropical disturbance which has a high chance of developing within 2-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…with a tropical disturbance which has a high chance of developing within 2-days

There’s a tropical disturbance, circled in red on the PDC Atlas above, which has a high chance of developing within the next 2-days

This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 97L, here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing.

This tropical disturbance has the potential to become a dangerous storm in the Caribbean later this week.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a well-organized tropical wave located about 475 miles east-southeast of Barbados. However, the low appears to lack a closed circulation at this time. The outermost spiral rain band of 97L was bringing rain showers to Barbados late this morning.

Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form later today or tonight, while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since warnings and watches could be required at any time.

Regardless of whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy rains and wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles, beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rains of 4-8 inches can be expected over the islands just north of where the center of 97L passes, including the islands of St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, and Guadaloupe. 

The storm will continue westwards on Thursday, and make its closest approach to the Netherlands Antilles, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao, on Thursday night into Friday morning. These islands will be on the weaker side of the storm, and may escape receiving tropical storm winds. However, heavy rains of 2-4 inches may fall.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.

The center of this system will pass through the islands Wednesday afternoon. It is unlikely that 97L will have time to intensify into a hurricane by then, though a strong tropical storm with 55-65 mph winds are possible.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…with a tropical disturbance which has a low chance of developing within 2-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…with a tropical disturbance which has a low chance of developing within 2-days

Meanwhile, there’s another tropical disturbance, circled in yellow on the PDC Atlas above, which has a low chance of developing within the next 5-days

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward.

Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

1.)  Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around mid-week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds should spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

1.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Sep
26
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Megi) is active over the northwest Pacific…located about 288 NM southeast of Taipei, Taiwan

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Roslyn) is now active over the northeast Pacific…located about 740 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 19E is now active over the northeast Pacific…located about 1170 miless east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts for Tropical Cyclone Megi

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts for Tropical Cyclone Megi

Typhoon 20W (Megi) remains active as a category 2 tropical cyclone…as it moves directly towards Taiwan, and then across the Taiwan Strait towards the Chinese east coast

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version …along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s the radar image of this dangerous typhoon taking aim on Taiwan.

TY Megi is the 4th typhoon to affect Taiwan this year. Super Typhoon Nepartak hit Taiwan on July 7 as a Category 4 storm, with top sustained winds of 150 mph. Earlier in September, Super Typhoon Meranti passed just to Taiwan’s southwest, killing two and leaving nearly a million without power, and Typhoon Malakas passed just to Taiwan’s northeast a few days later.

Taiwan averages 3 to 4 typhoon strikes per year, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depicts a 15 NM ragged eye with tightly curved cloud bands wrapping into the low level circulation center.

Upper air analysis reveals excellent radial outflow with enhanced poleward outflow.

TY 20W is forecast to continue tracking west-northwest and should make landfall along the east coast of Taiwan just prior to 24 hours. The system appears to be going through an eyewall replacement cycle, which could lead to a weakening trend prior to landfall. Regardless, significant weakening is forecast to occur as this typhoon approaches the rough terrain of Taiwan.

In the extended period, TS Megi will re-emerge over the Taiwan Strait after weakening significantly due to the land interaction, and will cross the southeast coast of China within 42 hours. Thereafter, 20W is forecast to dissipate while turning west-southwest over China.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #15 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…with a tropical disturbance which has a low chance of developing within 24-hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…with a tropical disturbance which has a low chance of developing within 24-hours

Meanwhile, and area of convection, being referred to as Invest 98W, is located approximately 780 NM east-northeast of Guam.

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what a computer model is showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a weak exposed low level circulation center, with deep convection along the southern periphery.

The system is located in a marginal environment with low to moderate wind shear and fair divergence aloft.

Global models show limited development as the system tracks westward over the next 2-3 days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclones 18E and 19E

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclones 18E and 19E

Tropical Storm 18E (Roslyn) is now active…remaining well offshore from the Mexican coast

Tropical Storm Roslyn, the seventeenth named storm of this very busy 2016 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. An average season in the Eastern Pacific has just fifteen named storms during the year.

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS Roslyn is moving towards the north-northeast at near 5 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Roslyn remains a large, but wind sheared tropical storm. This southwesterly shear which is currently affecting the cyclone, is predicted to increase during the next 24 hours, which should prevent significant strengthening…while Roslyn remains over marginally warm water.

In a little more than 24 hours, the tropical storm will be crossing cooler water, and moving into a more stable air mass, which should begin the weakening process. The NHC forecast shows Roslyn becoming a remnant low within 48 hours, and dissipating by the end of the forecast period.

This tropical storm should turn northeastward today. After Roslyn weakens into a shallow remnant low, it should turn northward and then northwestward in the low-level flow west of the Baja peninsula.

>>> Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 19E is now active over the open ocean…with no land being threatened

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TD 19E is moving towards the northwest at near 5 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), scatterometer data indicated that the area of low pressure located near 140W had a well-defined circulation. Deep convection associated with this system has since become much better organized.

Light northwesterly wind shear, with warm waters and an increasingly diffluent flow aloft over the cyclone, support intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. The only negative factor is marginal mid-level moisture that’s forecast to decrease further.

Once the system gains sufficient latitude after 72 hours, it is likely to become vulnerable to much stronger westerly flow aloft. In fact, with 30 to 40 knots of westerly wind shear forecast over the cyclone by day 4, rapid weakening should occur, and the system is forecast to be a remnant low by that time.

Global models show the cyclone turning northward within 24 hours, and then moving north-northeastward after that for the next few days. Once the cyclone weakens appreciably after 72 hours, a turn toward the west is likely when the remnant low is steered by the trade wind flow.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Roslyn)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Tropical Cyclone 19E

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Megi)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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