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Mar
06
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 15S remains active in the Mozambique Channel…located approximately 349 NM north-northeast of Europa Island

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15S

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15S

Tropical cyclone 15S remains active in the Mozambique Channel and will strengthen a bit more…before impacting the west coast of Madagascar

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 349 NM north-northeast of Europa Island…moving west-northwestward at a very slow 3 mph. By the way, Europa Island is an atoll in the Mozambique Channel…between southern Madagascar and southern Mozambique.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows that deep convection remains sheared to the northwest of the obscured low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows that the northern portion of the systems remains under the influence of high 20-30 knot (23-35 mph) wind shear…which continues to inhibit significant intensification.

Going forward, the wind shear is expected to diminish, which should allow 15S to strengthen to a peak intensity of 55 knots within the next 72 hours. Thereafter, TC 15S will impact the west coast of central Madagascar, and weaken due to land interaction. If the system can make it across this large stretch of land, there’s the chance that the remnants may re-emerge  over the south Indian Ocean…with an unlikely chance of re-intensification.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #3, are 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots.

Here’s computer model track guidance for 15S – along with a NOAA satellite image of this storm 

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 15S  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Mar
05
2015

Hazard Highlights

Volcanic Eruption in Chile; Severe Weather Impacting Europe

Thousands Forced to Evacuate as Villarrica Erupts

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PDC Global Hazards Atlas, centered on Villarrica volcano in Chile, displaying PDC Active Hazards layer. Draw & Annotation tools were used to incorporate an image of the eruption captured by EPA.

Activity at Chile’s Villarrica volcano peaked early Tuesday morning (0300 local time) with an intense (yet brief) eruption that produced a 1.5-kilometer-tall lava fountain and an eruptive plume which rose 6-8 kilometers above the crater (ECHO, SI). The eruption prompted the evacuation of approximately 3,600 people, though reports indicate that most have returned home (ReliefWeb, ONEMI). Villarrica volcano is one of Chile’s most active, and the eruption on Tuesday was its first major eruption  since 1984/85 (SERNAGEOMIN).

Heavy Rain and Flooding Continue to Affect Southern Europe

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PDC Global Hazards Atlas, centered on Europe, displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3 Day) layers.

Severe weather conditions are affecting several European countries. Heavy rains and high winds are impacting much of the southeast region of the continent, and high discharges/flooding has been reported as rivers rise in Spain, Croatia, and France (ECHO, MeteoAlarm). The image above depicts moderate to heavy rainfall concentrated in southern Europe over the last three days.

Current Hazard Warnings

Drought: Namibia, United States (Western), Brazil (Eastern), Madagascar (Southern)

Avalanche: United States (Colorado)

Biomedical: West Africa

Severe Weather: United States (Alaska, Southern, Eastern), Europe (Southern), Canada (Quebec, Ontario, Nunavut), Afghanistan, Pakistan, India (Northern)

Flood: Argentina, Brazil (Western), France (Southwest), Afghanistan, Pakistan, India (Northern), Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi (Southern), Australia (New South Wales, Western), Bolivia

Volcano: Chile, United States (Hawaii)

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the Global Hazards Atlas.

Mar
05
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 15S is now active in the Mozambique Channel…located approximately 393 NM north-northeast of Europa Island

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15S

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15S

Tropical cyclone 15S is active in the Mozambique Channel…and should strengthen only a little

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 393 NM north-northeast of Europa Island…moving southward at 7 mph.

Satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center, with associated deep convection…mostly on the western side of the system.

Upper level analysis indicates that this tropical cyclone is located in a marginal environment, with high 30-40 knot (35-46 mph) wind shear over the northern portion of the system…with average upper level divergence.

In addition, warm sea surface temperatures exist in the Mozambique Channel, which are favorable for some modest further development.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #1, are 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots.

Here’s computer model track guidance for 15S – along with a NOAA satellite image of this storm 

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 15S  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Mar
04
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

There’s an area of disturbed weather in the Mozambique Channel, circled in yellow above…which has a low chance of developing

This tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 92S, was located approximately 390 NM northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Satellite imagery shows a fully exposed low level circulation center, with weak flaring convection…sheared westward from the center.

Upper level analysis reveals this system is in an area of light to moderate 10-20 knot (12-23 mph) wind shear.

Dynamic weather guidance indicates significant development in this area over the next 48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are 20-25 knots (23-29 mph).

Here’s computer model track guidance for Invest 92S  – and a NOAA satellite image of this tropical disturbance

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is saying that the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Mar
03
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

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