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May
22
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

                    

The two areas of disturbed weather, circled in orange above, continue to become more likely to develop into tropical cyclones over the next several days.

The mostly likely of the two areas is being referred to as Invest 90E…here’s what several of the hurricane models are showing. Interestingly, the models want to take this potential system westward across the 140W line of longitude…into the Central Pacific.

This NOAA Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product, is now showing this area of disturbed weather more likely to develop as well.

If one or the other of these two tropical disturbances flare-up into tropical depressions, the first two names in the Pacific will be Andres and Blanca.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area…along with the looping version


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become a little better organized this morning. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system during the next three to four days while it moves west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high…80 percent

2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 2000 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has also become better organized this morning. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two while the low moves slowly northwestward. After that time, development is less likely due to the proximity of the disturbance to its northeast.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high…70 percent

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

May
21
2015

Hazard Highlights

Torrential Rains Trigger Flooding, Mudslides in Tajikistan

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PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-Day) layers.

Relief operations are underway in Tajikistan following flooding and landslides (occurring May 11-13) that affected more than 1,700 people (ReliefWeb/IFRC). Rapid assessments have identified shelter, food, hygiene and sanitation, and drinking water among the most urgent needs. Reports indicate that most of the houses in the affected districts were heavily damaged and uninhabitable. Damage to roads, bridges, agricultural fields, and schools has also been reported.

Widespread light to heavy rainfall across Central Asia has also affected areas of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan over the past week (CPC). Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next week, increasing the potential for flash flooding in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

RVA Country Profile: Tajikistan

As government and volunteer organizations work to respond to the needs of the affected population in Tajikistan’s Khatlon Province, PDC’s Global Risk and Vulnerability Index assesses the susceptibility of the country to damaging effects of a hazard, based on pre-event conditions, via the Vulnerability Index. 

052115

This Week in Hazards

  • Guinea and Sierra Leone saw an uptick in Ebola cases, with 35 new cases reported over the past week (CIDRAP). The recent localized “flare-ups” have been linked to unsafe burial practices. A response team has been deployed by the WHO to reinforce teams currently working in the field (UNMEER). Liberia was declared “free of Ebola virus transmission” by the WHO on May 9 (WHO).

 

  • Although some parts of Hispaniola have received a slight increase in rain, overall the effects of persistent abnormal dryness remain in Haiti and the Dominican Republic (CPC). Recently planted crops are expected to fail, and concerns regarding domestic water availability have also been raised. According to reports, the lack of adequate rainfall (since 2014) has left the Dominican Republic facing one of the worst droughts in 20 years (Redhum).

 

  • Salgar Municipality in the Antioquia Department of Colombia declared a “state of public calamity” following a landslide on May 18 (ECHO/PAHO). As of May 19, an estimated 18,000 people had been cut off from water and sanitation services.

 

  • Reports from China indicate that adverse weather conditions have affected more than 6,600 people (ReliefWeb). Flooding (caused by heavy rainfall since May 15) has impacted 22 counties in southwest China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, damaging or destroying hundreds of homes, as well as damaging crops.

Current Hazard Warnings

Flood: Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, United States (Central)

Severe Weather:  United States (Texas, North Carolina), Malaysia, China

Earthquake: Nepal, Solomon Islands, Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

Volcano: Chile

Wildfire: Canada (British Columbia)

Drought: United States (Western, Southern), Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Angola, Namibia, Venezuela, Uruguay, Tonga, Brazil, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, El Salvador

Biomedical: West Africa

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the Global Hazards Atlas.

May
21
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulations

The GFS model actually shows a closed-isobar low pressure system forming in the eastern Pacific later this weekend, briefly becoming more pronounced early next week…before moving northward into colder water / look into the area between 120-140W…around 10 degrees north latitude / this extended outlook may change with time.

This NOAA Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product, shows these areas…although the chance remains on the lower end of the scale at the moment.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area…along with the looping version


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1. A tropical wave located about 1200 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system has changed little in organization since yesterday, and environmental conditions are currently not conducive for development. However, they are expected to become conducive for some slow development over the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

2. An area of low pressure has developed about 2000 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of the system during the next several days while the low moves slowly northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

May
20
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

There are no active tropical cyclones, nor are there any tropical disturbances under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in the northeastern Pacific…or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in the western Pacific or Indian Ocean


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

May
19
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Dolphin) is dissipating over the northwestern Pacific…located approximately 68 NM north-northwest of Iwo To, Japan – Final Warning

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for dissipating Tropical Cyclone 07W (Dolphin)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for dissipating Tropical Cyclone 07W (Dolphin)

Tropical Storm 07W (Dolphin) is now dissipating over the open ocean

Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC 07W – along with a NOAA looping satellite image

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 68 NM north-northwest of Iwo To…moving northeastward at 16 mph.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), IR satellite imagery shows thinning convection, as the system is undergoing extra-tropical transition.

This will continue the current weakening trend, with increased wind shear aloft…and cooler sea surface temperatures below.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #52, were 60 knots…with gusts to 75 knots.

Dissipating TS Dolphin will move by within 8 NM of the small island of Chichi Jima.

Here’s a NOAA  satellite image of this area


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Dophin) - Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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