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May
25
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto is located about 195 miles south-southwest of the western tip of Cuba

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Wind Radii, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions for Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto, remains active in the northwestern Caribbean Sea…although will be spinning into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend

Maximum sustained winds…40 mph

Here’s the animated GeoColor satellite images for this system in the Caribbean Sea

This storm is producing thundershowers over the northwestern Caribbean…eastward to the western tip of Cuba.

Alberto will move slowly into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, which will bring the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to a large area of the Southeast and Florida…lasting into next week.

The models show the storm moving inland somewhere between easternmost Louisiana and Florida’s Apalachee Bay. Cities that lie in the potential track include New Orleans; Gulfport, Mississippi; Mobile, Alabama; and Pensacola and Panama City, Florida.

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this storm.

Flash flooding will become an increasing threat…particularly over saturated parts of Florida and the Southeast. Where the winds push water from the Gulf of Mexico onshore…coastal flooding may result near and to the east of the storm’s path.

Here’s the NOAA 5-day Precipitation Outlook graphic

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical storm.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the inner-core low-level wind field of Alberto has changed little since the previous advisory based on recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, along with land and ship observations. However, the convective structure of the cyclone has degraded over the past several hours, due a pronounced intrusion of dry mid-/upper-level air, and the cloud pattern continues to exhibit the structure of a sub-tropical cyclone.

A gradual turn toward the north should begin later tonight due to a strong ridge located to the east across the Greater Antilles. A steadier northward motion is forecast to occur by Saturday evening and continue into Sunday, as a sharp mid/upper-level trough digging southward into the central Gulf of Mexico, combines with southerly flow around the western portion of a large subtropical ridge…to produce deep-layer southerly flow across Alberto.

By 48 hours and continuing through 72 hours, the developing mid/upper-level low over the central Gulf should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and accelerate until it nears the Gulf Coast by Monday night. After that, steering currents are forecast to collapse as a broad weakness develops in the subtropical ridge axis located along the Gulf coast. Slow although steady recurvature into the westerlies across the Deep South is expected to begin by 96-120 hours.

The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory. The broad nature of the inner-core wind field, along with strong westerly wind shear in excess of 20 knots is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours. The latest model runs actually decrease the shear sooner than previously forecast, although the ragged nature of the wind field should prevent any significant intensification until after 48 hours.

As a result, only slow and steady strengthening is expected for the next 3 days, and Alberto could peak around 60 knots around 60 hours, when the storm will be in a low wind shear regime and over warm sea surface temperatures. However, proximity to dry mid- level air around landfall could hinder any additional strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory.

The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of tropical storm and storm surge watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast at this time. Note that if the intensity forecast increases with later advisories, a hurricane watch could be needed for a portion of the Gulf Coast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeaster Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is expected to slow down after it moves inland.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of Alberto’s center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the United States watch area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide… Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River…2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

Sub-Tropical Cyclone Alberto

NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

May
25
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu) is located about 27 miles south-southwest of Salalah, Oman

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Wind Radii, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions for Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02A/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu) remains a very strong storm (Category 3)…as it moves over Oman to dissipate inland

Here’s a youtube video from Salalah, Oman

A close-up enhanced satellite view of Mekuna

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real time wind profile for this tropical system

Looping radar images of this storm as it strikes Oman

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep convective banding wrapping tightly into a compact core…with a 7-NM eye.

TC Mekunu is approaching the Oman coast, with surface observations from Salalah are reporting increasing northeasterly 45 knot winds…gusting to 55-60 knots.

As landfall occurs, the system will continue to track inland, turning northwestward. After landfall, the storm is expected to weaken rapidly, and should dissipate within 36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds as of the JTWC Warning #16 are estimated at 100 knots…with gusts to 125

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no tropical cyclones expected during the next 5-days

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

© 2015-2018 Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) – All rights reserved.  Commercial use is permitted only with explicit approval of PDC

May
25
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto is located about 200 miles southwest of Cozumel, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Wind Radii, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions for Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto

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The area of disturbed weather formerly referred to as Invest 90L, has finally spun-up into Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto…in the northwestern Caribbean Sea

Maximum sustained winds…40 mph

Here’s the animated GeoColor satellite images for this system in the Caribbean Sea

This newly formed storm is producing thundershowers over the northwestern Caribbean…eastward to the western tip of Cuba.

Alberto will move slowly into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, which will bring the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to a large area of the Southeast and Florida…lasting into next week.

The models show the storm moving inland somewhere between easternmost Louisiana and Florida’s Apalachee Bay. Cities that lie in the potential track include New Orleans; Gulfport, Mississippi; Mobile, Alabama; and Pensacola and Panama City, Florida.

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this storm.

Flash flooding will become an increasing threat…particularly over saturated parts of Florida and the Southeast. Where the winds push water from the Gulf of Mexico onshore…coastal flooding may result near and to the east of the storm’s path.

Here’s the NOAA 5-day Precipitation Outlook graphic

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical storm.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the past several days over the Yucatan Peninsula, has finally moved offshore over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Although the system possesses multiple low-level circulations, the overall larger circulation has improved since yesterday.

Given that the system has been interacting with a sharp upper-level trough, the strongly sheared low has been designated a subtropical storm. The initial intensity is based on buoy and ship observations of 30-35 kt. Ship 3ETA7 located just northeast of the center at 1100Z reported 45-kt winds at 50 meters elevation. Those winds equate to 35-40 kt at 10 meters elevation.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later this afternoon and provide more information on the storm’s structure and intensity.

The broad inner-core wind field and multiple swirls makes the short-term motion forecast a little tricky. However, a large subtropical ridge to the east should generally induce a slow north to north-northeastward motion for the next 24 hours or so.

After that, the ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida, along with a mid/upper-level low forecast to develop over the central Gulf of Mexico, should result in a faster northward motion at 36-48 hours, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest around the northern fringe of the aforementioned mid/upper-level low.

By 96 hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down significantly as it nears the north-central Gulf Coast, due to a large weakness in the subtropical ridge forecast to develop over the Deep South.

Given the broad inner-core wind field and belligerent westerly wind shear forecast to persist for the next 48 hours or so, only gradual intensification is expected. By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone is forecast to move slowly over above-normal sea surface temperatures, and weak wind shear, some additional strengthening could occur. For now, the intensity forecast will remain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air before landfall.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is expected to slow down after it moves inland.

2. Alberto could bring tropical storm conditions and storm surge to portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast later this weekend and early next week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Alberto, as tropical storm and storm surge watches may be required later today or tonight.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

Sub-Tropical Cyclone Alberto

NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

May
24
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu) is located about 125 miles south-southeast of Salalah, Oman

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Wind Radii, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS wind estimates for Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu)

 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02A/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu) remains at the typhoon level…as it spins towards the Oman coast

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real time wind profile for this tropical storm

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a general weakening trend, with decaying deep convection over the northern semi-circle…along with the loss of the eye.

Environmental conditions favor slight intensification prior to landfall (reaching 85 knots with gusts to 105 knots), with excellent equatorward and poleward outflow, warm sea water temperatures, and moderate 15-20 knot wind shear.

As landfall occurs after 36 hours, the system is expected to dissipate rapidly and turn gradually northwestward.

Maximum sustained surface winds as of the JTWC Warning #12 are estimated at 80 knots…with gusts to 100

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no tropical cyclones expected during the next 5-days

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

© 2015-2018 Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) – All rights reserved.  Commercial use is permitted only with explicit approval of PDC

May
24
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a weak tropical disturbance circled in red

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An area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90L…remains active over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula

This system will to move slowly into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, which will bring the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to a large area of the Southeast and Florida…lasting into next week.

At the moment, a broad area of low pressure is located over Mexico’s eastern Yucatan Peninsula, producing thundershowers near the coast…from near Cozumel south to Belize.

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this disturbance.

Here’s the 5-day NHC outlook graphic for this tropical disturbance.

No matter what the system does, it’s expected to bring wet weather for this upcoming holiday weekend.

Flash flooding will become an increasing threat…particularly over saturated parts of Florida and the Southeast.

Flight delays may become possible at major airports such as those in Miami, Orlando and Atlanta through early next week.

Here’s the NOAA 5-day Precipitation Outlook graphic

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical disturbance.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly organized due to strong upper-level winds.

However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form during the weekend over the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday afternoon, if necessary.

Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend.

If the system does develop further, it could become tropical storm Alberto.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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