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Aug
28
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 03C (Kilo) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean…it was located about 865 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii

Tropical cyclone 12E (Ignacio) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean…it is located about 845 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical cyclone 13E (Jimena) remains active in the northeastern Pacific Ocean…it is located about 1075 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for  Hurricanes Ignacio and Jimena

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Hurricanes Ignacio and Jimena

Hawaii
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for former Tropical Storm Kilo

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for former Tropical Storm Kilo


Tropical Storm 03C (Kilo)
remains active in the central Pacific, on its way to becoming a hurricane soon…although staying away from the Hawaiian Islands

Here’s a
satellite image of this Tropical Storm…and what the computer models are showing

This area is located about 875 miles south-southeast of Midway Island…moving westward at 8 mph.

According to the CPHC, KILO HAS MAINTAINED AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN DURING THE NIGHT… WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

A WELL-PLACED ASCAT PASS VERIFIED THAT THE CENTER REMAINED DISPLACED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. 

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS…WITH KILO GRADUALLY CURVING FROM A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND TO THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 48 HOURS…KILO IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED…AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE.

KILO WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND SHIPS INDICATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 9 TO 13 KNOTS IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM…WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION AND LACK OF OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. 

THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…AND MAKES KILO A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THEREAFTER…IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE BUT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE HWRF AND ICON CONSENSUS. 

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE…BUT THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY AS KILO CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD.

Maximum surface winds at the CPHC advisory #32 was 70 mph sustained winds

Hurricane 12E (Ignacio) remains active in the central Pacific…on its way to passing just offshore to the north of Hawaii

Here’s a satellite image of this hurricane…and what the computer models are showing

This area is located about 1135 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii…moving west-northwest at about 13 mph.

According to the NHC, OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION FOR IGNACIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT…WITH AN OBLONG 180 NM WIDE CDO HIDING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.

IGNACIO CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 

TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED…GENERALLY SHOWING A CONTINUED MOTION INITIALLY TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST…THEN NORTHWEST…THROUGH THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD. 

THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE…FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS ARC BUT REMAINING ON THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 

IGNACIO IS IN A FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT RIGHT NOW…WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE TREND…IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TO 95 KT AT 36 HOURS…MAINTAIN THAT STRENGTH THROUGH 48 HOURS…THEN STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TO STAY IN LINE WITH SHIPS MODEL…THE RATE OF WEAKENING WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS ADVISORY…KEEPING IGNACIO AT 70 KT AT 120 HOURS. THIS TREND ALSO CLOSELY FOLLOWS HWRF…BUT IS WEAKER THAN GFDL.

THE FORECAST HAS THE CENTER OF IGNACIO PASSING CLOSE TO…BUT JUST NORTHEAST OF…THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #15 was 90 mph sustained winds

Hurricane 13E (Jimena) remains active in the eastern Pacific…on its way to becoming a very strong hurricane

Here’s a satellite image of this hurricane…and what the computer models are showing

This area is located about 890 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…moving west-northwestward at about 17 mph.

According to the NHC, Rapid intensification (RI) of hurricane Jimena continues this morning. Microwave data has shown an eye beneath the central dense overcast, and a more definitive eye is just now becoming apparent in infrared satellite imagery. 

Jimena is expected to remain in an environment of low wind shear and over warm water for the duration of the forecast period. Mid-level moisture is high at the moment and is expected to only gradually decrease during the next 2 to 3 days.

The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) is showing a 54 percent chance of a 30-knot increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. Therefore, a continuation of RI appears likely and is explicitly shown in the NHC intensity forecast.

A peak intensity is expected in about 48 hours, followed by gradual weakening through day 5 due to a slightly drier environment and lower oceanic heat content values.  

It should be noted that once Jimena reaches its peak as a major hurricane, fluctuations in intensity that deviate from the official forecast are likely due to possible eyewall replacements.

Jimena appears to have slowed down a bit, and the initial motion is westward at 10 knots. The hurricane remains to the south of an anomalously strong ridge that extends southwestward from the southwestern United States, and this feature is expected to keep Jimena on a westward course for the next 24 hours.

After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken, which will allow Jimena to turn west-northwestward through day 5. The track guidance remains in good agreement and very close to the previous forecast.

Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #8 was 90 mph sustained winds


Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Jimena)

NHC textual warning
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Central North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 03C (Kilo)

CPHC textual warning
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Ignacio)

NHC textual warning
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Aug
28
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm 05L (Erika) is moving through the Caribbean Islands…and is located approximately 65 miles south-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for former Tropical Storm Erika
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for former Tropical Storm Erika

Tropical cyclone 05L (Erika) is pushing through the Caribbean Islands, as a tropical storm…eventually reaching southern Florida early next week

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this tropical storm…along with what the computer models are showing / Looping radar of this storm moving through the Caribbean Islands
Here’s a real time wind profile of the Caribbean Islands

This tropical storm is located about 65 miles south-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic…moving west-northwestward at 18 mph.

According to the NHC, morning visible satellite imagery shows that the broad low-level center of Erika is exposed to the west of the main convective area, due to the effects of 20-25 knots of westerly vertical wind shear.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported a large area of 40-45 knot surface wind, so the initial intensity remains 45 knots.

Now that the center is somewhat easier to locate, the initial motion is a somewhat more confident west-northwest at 16 knots. A generally west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 48 hours or so, as TS Erika moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.

After that time, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward speed are forecast. as Erika moves between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance continues to show some spread based on the forecast strength of Erika.

The models with a stronger cyclone, such as the GFDL and GFS, show a faster northward turn and are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecasts a weaker storm and lies on the left side of the envelope. An extra complication is that passage over Hispaniola is likely to disrupt the circulation, with the possibility that the center could reform somewhere northwest or west of the island.

Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the west since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track shows a similar nudge through 96 hours. The guidance is also showing a faster forward speed than six hours ago, so the new track is also a little faster than the previous track.

Westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to continue or increase during the next 12 to 24 hours. This, combined with land interaction, suggests that the cyclone should weaken, and there is a chance the system could degenerate to a tropical wave while crossing Hispaniola. Hispaniola has 10,000 foot mountains that could have a major influence on the integrity of this storm system.

Assuming the cyclone survives, the shear should decrease some after 36 hours, which could allow some strengthening up to the time of possible landfall on the Florida Peninsula. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and like the previous forecast it is low confidence.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today and tonight. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides. Here’s the latest radar image from the NWS Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands.

Here’s the HWRF model rainfall forecast

Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #15 was 50 mph winds

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles to the east of the center. Punta Cana at the eastern end of the Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust of 40 mph

WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the U. S. Virgin Islands.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands..

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions affecting Puerto Rico will continue for the next several hours before subsiding later today. Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across Haiti today, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night.

RAINFALL:  Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

1.) A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa over the weekend. Some slow development is possible through the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cape Verde Islands at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea

Tropical Cyclone 05L (Erika) 

NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Aug
27
2015

Hazard Highlights

Drought Conditions Persist in Ethiopia, Heavy Rainfall Continues over West Africa

HH 082715

PDC Global Hazards Atlas, centered on Africa, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3 Day) layers.

Below average seasonal rainfall has led to “incredibly dry conditions” in parts of Ethiopia which continue to impact crops and livestock (ReliefWeb/FEWS NET). With El Niño conditions confirmed, it’s likely that drought conditions will continue affecting harvests beyond the upcoming “main rains,” which provides the water for 80% of Ethiopia’s agricultural production (ReliefWeb/UNICEF). Reports indicate that with only a few weeks left in the June-September rainy season, any additional deficits in rainfall is likely to also impact water availability (CPC). Over the next week, parts of eastern Africa are expected to see an increase in rainfall, with moderate to heavy rain over western Ethiopia.

On the other side of the continent, it is not drought, but heavy rainfall that is leading to agricultural concerns, as excessive moisture could pose a threat to crops in some areas of West Africa (CPC). Analysis of the rainfall over the past 30 days across many parts of this region indicate “the wettest conditions on record.” Widespread, heavy rainfall is expected to continue over the next week, increasing the risk of flooding over already-saturated ground.

RVA Country Profile: Ethiopia

HH 082715

This Week in Hazards

  • Hurricane Ignacio crossed into the Central Pacific earlier today, making it at least the fourth tropical cyclone to pose a threat to the Hawaiian Islands this season. As of 1100 HST, Ignacio is located 1055 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, with maximum sustained winds at 90 miles per hour (CPHC Advisory #12). Although no coastal watches or warnings are in effect, Ignacio is expected to strengthen over the next 48 hours, possibly becoming a major hurricane by Friday, and its track has not yet turned away from the state.
  • Tropical Storm Erika is expected to continue moving through the Caribbean, on track to be near or over the Dominican Republic by Friday (NHC Advisory #12). As 1700 AST, Erika is located 175 miles west of Guadeloupe, bringing very heavy rainfall to parts of the Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm warnings remain in effect for Anguilla, British Virgin Islands, Monserrat, and St. Kitts and Nevis (CDEMA Situation Report #1)
  • According to media reports, Papua New Guinea may be facing “the worst drought conditions in 20 years,” as persistent dry weather and frost continue to impact agriculture (Reuters). As of August 24, more than 1.8 million people have been affected by extreme weather, of which more than 1.3 million are most at risk because of drought conditions (PM of PNG). The most severely affected provinces have also been those with high concentrations of rural population, including Simbu, Southern Highlands, Enga, Eastern Highlands, and Western Highlands (UNDP).

Current Hazard Warnings

Tropical Cyclone: Ignacio (Central Pacific)

Flood: India, England (Southeast), Pakistan, West Africa, Australia (Victoria, New South Wales)

Storm: Malaysia (Eastern), Turkey, Indonesia, Canada (Quebec, Nova Scotia)

Wildfire: United States (Montana, California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington), Colombia, Canada (British Columbia)

Drought: Caribbean Islands, Central America, Ethiopia, United States (Western), Papua New Guinea

Extreme Temperature: Montenegro

Biomedical: West Africa

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the Global Hazards Atlas.

Aug
27
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 03C (Kilo) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean…it was located about 640 miles west-southwest of Lihue, Hawaii

Tropical cyclone 12E (Ignacio) remains active in the northeastern Pacific Ocean…it is located about 1130 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical cyclone 13E (Jimena) is now active in the northeastern Pacific Ocean…it is located about 890 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Tropical Storms Kilo Jimena,Hurricane Ignacio

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Tropical Storms Kilo, Jimena and Hurricane Ignacio


Tropical Storm 03C (Kilo) remains active in the central Pacific, on its way to becoming a hurricane…although staying away from the Hawaiian Islands

Here’s a
satellite image of this Tropical Storm…and what the computer models are showing


This area is located about 615 miles west-southwest of Barking Sands, Hawaii…moving southwestward at a very slow 1 mph.


According to the CPHC, THE CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND EVIDENT SIX HOURS AGO HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE…WRAPPING MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THIS SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE GOOD IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION…WHILE A CONSOLIDATED AND SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION PERSISTS.

GIVEN THIS IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION…AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE CENTERS…INITIAL INTENSITY FOR KILO IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS.

TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE GROUPED AROUND A SOLUTION SHOWING KILO SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH 48 HOURS…THEN GRADUALLY SWINGING NORTHWEST WHILE ACCELERATING DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. 

MODELS STILL SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF KILO AS THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM…PUSHING TS KILO INITIALLY SOUTHWESTWARD, THEN LETTING KILO SLIP NORTHWESTWARD IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM.

THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS THEN SHIFTED MORE NOTICEABLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 48 HOURS.

KILO LIES WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION…WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND REASONABLY GOOD VENTING ALOFT.

HOWEVER…IN SPITE OF THE STRONGER INITIAL INTENSITY…MODELS STILL STRENGTHEN KILO QUITE SLOWLY…SHOWING KILO REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 48 HOURS…WITH A PEAK STRENGTH NEAR 75 KNOTS REACHED BY DAY FIVE.

INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND…CAPPING KILO AT 80 KNOTS ON DAY FIVE…AFTER SLOWLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Maximum surface winds at the CPHC advisory #28 was 65 mph sustained winds

Tropical Storm 12E (Ignacio) remains active in the eastern Pacific…on its way to becoming a strong hurricane in the central Pacific

Here’s a satellite image of this TS…and what the computer models are showing

This area is located about 1135 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii…moving west-northwest at about 13 mph.

According to the NHC, Ignacio continues to produce very cold cloud tops near the center. A 20-25 NM wide eye is forming under the overcast. However, the eye is ragged, and the deep convection in the eyewall is mainly southwest of the center. 

There is little change in the forecast philosophy since the previous advisory, with the subtropical ridge north of Ignacio expected to steer the tropical cyclone generally west-northwestward through the forecast period, with a gradual decrease in forward speed.

Some spread in the track guidance develops by day 5, as one model turns a weaker Ignacio westward while another turns a stronger Ignacio northwestward. Despite this, the consensus models and the center of the guidance envelope are near the previous forecast, and the new forecast is a slightly faster update of the previous forecast.

Ignacio should remain over warm sea surface temperatures, and in an environment of light wind shear for at least the next two days, which should allow continued strengthening to a major hurricane. After that time, the cyclone should encounter increasing westerly shear and move over slightly cooler water, which should start a gradual weakening. The new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is basically unchanged since the previous advisory.

One note of uncertainty in the intensity forecast is that the GFS model depiction of wind shear at day-5, which is used in the SHIPS and LGEM models, looks weaker than that forecast by the ECMWF and UKMET models. Should the latter models verify, Ignacio could weaken faster than currently forecast.

Ignacio is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin at about 1800Z (11am HST). Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center. Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #11 was 90 mph sustained winds

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 2 PM PDT (11 AM HST)

Tropical Storm 13E (Jimena) is now active in the eastern Pacific…on its way to becoming a very strong hurricane

Here’s a satellite image of this Tropical Storm…and what the computer models are showing

This area is located about 890 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…moving west-northwestward at about 17 mph.

According to the NHC, TS Jimena is steadily becoming better organized with deep convection persisting near the center and more pronounced cloud banding developing around the circulation. 

Embedded in an environment of low shear, high moisture, and very warm ocean water, Jimena should have no problems continuing to intensify. In fact, rapid intensification (RI) is a distinct possibility during the next 24 hours.

A low-level inner core ring was noted in a microwave pass, and the SHIPS RI index is showing a 1 in 3 chance of a 30-knot intensity change during the next 24 hours. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast shows Jimena becoming a hurricane on Friday.

After 24 hours, the overall environment should remain favorable for strengthening, and Jimena is forecast to become a major hurricane from day 3 through day 5. 

The storm has been moving quickly west-northwestward with a 12-hour motion of west-northwest at 15 knots. A strong deep-layer ridge of high pressure extends from northwestern Mexico to just east of the Hawaiian Islands…and this feature should steer Jimena generally westward during the next 48 hours.

A weakness is expected to develop in the ridge by 72 hours, which should turn the cyclone west-northwestward through day-5. The track guidance has shifted slightly southward during the first 48 hours, and the updated NHC track forecast follows suit. but still lies a little north of the model consensus. The updated forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one after 48 hours.

Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #4 was 45 mph sustained winds


Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Ignacio)

NHC textual warning
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Jimena)

NHC textual warning
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Central North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 03C (Kilo)

CPHC textual warning
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.) An area of disorganized thunderstorms associated with a low pressure center is located about 500 miles south of Hilo Hawaii. Little if any development is expected as the system moves west at 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Aug
27
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm 05L (Erika) is moving through the Caribbean Islands…and is located approximately 125 miles west of Guadeloupe

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for former Tropical Storm Erika

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for former Tropical Storm Erika

Tropical cyclone 05L (Erika) is pushing through the Caribbean Islands, as a tropical storm…and isn’t expected to attain hurricane strength until it brushes by Florida early next week

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this tropical storm…along with what the computer models are showing 

This tropical storm is located about 125 miles west of Guadeloupe…moving westward at 16 mph.

According to the NHC, Erika is not well organized at this time. Although deep convection increased overnight and early today during the diurnal maximum, with considerable lightning activity, banding features were lacking.

The convection is also not well organized on the Guadeloupe radar imagery. Recent high-resolution visible imagery shows the low-level center becoming exposed, again, to the northwest of the main area of thunderstorms. Data from the aircraft do not indicate any strengthening, and the initial intensity is kept at 45 knots.

The latest aircraft fixes show that the center has apparently reformed farther to the south of previous estimates. With some adjustments to the previous location, the initial motion estimate is kept west at 14 knots.

For the next few days, Erika should move west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level subtropical high pressure ridge. Later in the forecast period, as the tropical cyclone nears the western periphery of the ridge, a turn to the northwest and north-northwest should occur. However there is uncertainty as to how soon and how sharp this turn will take place.

The future track of Erika is also dependent on its intensity, with a weaker system likely to move more to the west and a stronger cyclone more to the east. There is substantial spread in the track models at days 3 to 5, partially due to differences in model-predicted intensity.

The official track forecast has been shifted to the left of the previous one mainly due to the adjustment in the current center position. This is close to the model consensus.

As expected, Erika is being disrupted by an unfavorable atmospheric environment, and this disruption is expected to continue for the next couple of days. No significant strengthening is expected until later in the forecast period. In addition, with the reformation of the center to the south of the previous track, the likelihood of interaction with the land mass of Hispaniola has increased. This has implications for Hispaniola, of course, but also for the track and intensity of Erika after that. In short, potential impacts for the Bahamas and beyond are unusually uncertain.

Heavy rains and strong gusty winds are sweeping through much of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today. According to the Antigua Met Service, Canefield Airport on Dominica recorded 8.86″ of rain Wednesday night, and heavy flooding has been observed on that island. The Guadaloupe Airport has recorded 1.18″ of rain today, with a peak wind gust of 36 mph.

TS Erika’s expected rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches with maximum amounts near 8 inches, will likley cause some localized flash flooding and mudslides over the Caribbean Islands…although will help alleviate severe to extreme drought conditions, that some of the islands have been experiencing.

Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #11 was 50 mph winds

WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

The government of the Dominican Republic has extended the Tropical Storm Watch westward along the north coast of the Dominican Republic to the border of Haiti.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border of Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

Interests in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Erika. 

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands through early this afternoon, and reach the Virgin Islands later today and Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands through early this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the Dominican Republic on Friday and the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and the Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeast Bahamas through Saturday. Dominica reported nearly 9 inches of rainfall overnight, with significant flooding occurring on the island.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea

Tropical Cyclone 05L (Erika) 

NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

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