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May
26
2016

Hazard Highlights

Heavy Rainfall Triggers Flooding in Indonesia

HH 052616

PDC Global Hazards Atlas, centered on the Indonesia, displaying PDC Active Hazards and accumulated rainfall over the past three days.

Throughout the week, heavy rainfall triggered flash floods that have affected parts of western Indonesia (ECHO, ReliefWeb/AHA Centre). Subang, located on the northern coast of the West Java province, has been on ‘emergency status’ since May 24 as flash floods continue to impact the city (BNPB). According to reports (as of May 24), flooding in Subang has displaced 388 people and caused a number of injuries and deaths (BNPB).

Heavy rainfall also led to flash flooding that affected parts of the West Kalimatan province, where at least 300 houses have been submerged in four subdistricts of Mempawah; while in parts of the North Sumatra province, heavy rains caused the Aek Sangkunur and Batangtoru rivers to overflow (ReliefWeb/AHA Centre).

RVA Profile: Indonesia

RVA_Indonesia

This Week in Hazards:

  • Severe weather conditions associated with an area of disturbed weather (referred to as Invest 91L)  in the Atlantic is affecting the Dominican Republic, as heavy rainfall over the past few days has affected several provinces, especially in the northern region of the country (ECHO, ReliefWeb/COE). As of May 25, flooding has displaced 1,550 people and impacted more than 520 homes (ECHO). Of the 11 provinces currently on alert for possible flash floods, riverine flooding, and landslides, Santiago and Monte Cristi are on Yellow Alert for increased risk and ‘severe emergencies’ (ReliefWeb/COE).
  • Restrictions on outdoor fires are currently being enforced in the ‘Restricted Fire Zone’ of Ontario, Canada, as multiple wildfires burn through the province’s Northwest Region (MNRF). By the afternoon of May 26 (local time) two new fires that had ignited the day prior have been extinguished and response operations are ongoing to at least six active fires in the region (MNRF). Fire and emergency management officials are currently monitoring 19 active fires throughout the province (OEM).

Current Hazard Warnings

Flood: Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Haiti, Dominican Republic, United States (Texas, Nebraska, Wyoming), Somalia, Ethiopia

Earthquake: Ecuador

Drought: Micronesia, Melanesia, South/Southeast Asia, Southern Africa (Madagascar), the Americas (United States, Bolivia)

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the Global Hazards Atlas.

May
26
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…over the eastern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…over the eastern Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones, nor  any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…also showing a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…also showing a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing

There is a tropical disturbance now active in the South China Sea…being referred to as Invest 90W. This area is located about 280 NM south of Hong Kong.

Here’s a satellite image of this area, along with what some of the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts an area of deepening convection, and significant consolidation over the past 6-hours…forming a low level circulation center.

Upper level conditions are becoming more favorable over the past 6-hours…running a relatively low 10-15 knots.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 17-22 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

May
26
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

 There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…also showing a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing over the next 2-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…also showing a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing over the next 2-days

There’s a good chance of seeing a tropical cyclone spinning-up between Bermuda and Bahamas…before the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins on June 1st.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased, and become more organized over the ocean between the Bahamas and Bermuda. This low pressure system, being referred to as Invest 91L, appears likely to develop into a tropical depression. Should it become a named storm, it would be called Bonnie.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has it moving west-northwest or northwest…towards the southeast coast of the United States.

Here’s the latest satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what several of the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this area in the western Atlantic Ocean

Sea water temperatures in this area are running between 79 and 81F degrees…which is above average for this time of year. The sea waters in this general area have cooled a little from yesterday, although are still warm enough to help generate a tropical depression…or storm.

Wind shear at the moment is on the high side, blowing 20-30 knots, thus limiting development until the wind shear aloft lowers Friday. A large area of dry air lies to the west of this tropical disturbance, and is expected to interfere with development. One of the models is predicting that wind shear would fall to the more moderate 10-20 knot range Friday…then lower below 10 knots over the weekend.

The NHC has increased the chances of development in the 2-day and 5-day time ranges…to medium 50% and high 70%, respectively.

A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 91L Friday.

Invest 91L probably won’t have enough time over water to become a strong tropical storm, much less a hurricane, so heavy rain and possible flooding is the main concern from this system. Heavy rains may reach the coasts of South and North Carolina Saturday night or Sunday morning.

Here’s the NOAA precipitation outlook graphic today through May 31st. Besides the rainfall expected from this potential tropical depression along the southeast coast…there’s a very large swatch of heavy flooding rainfall across the mid-section of the United States at the same time!

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

1. A low pressure area centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is gradually becoming better defined while shower activity is increasing. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropical cyclone formation on Friday while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. With the Memorial Day weekend approaching, all interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force reconnaissance plane will be scheduled to investigate this low on Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

May
25
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…over the eastern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…over the eastern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…over the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…over the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones, nor  any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center, or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center…at the time of this writing

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

May
25
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

 There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…also showing a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing over the next 2-days

An area of disturbed weather is now active…occurring several days before the Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st.

Showers and thunderstorms are now active to the northeast of the Bahamas. This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 91L, and is expected to develop into a possible tropical depression by the upcoming weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has it tracking northwest towards the southeast coast of the United States.

Sea water temperatures in this area are running between 82 and 84F degrees…which is above average by 2+ degrees for this time of year. This is more than sufficient to favor development of a tropical cyclone.

Invest 91L probably won’t have enough time over water to become a strong tropical storm, much less a hurricane, so heavy rain and possible flooding is the main concern from this system. The various weather models indicated a possible threat to the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina early next week…although other models showed the storm staying just off the southeast coast through the middle of next week.

Here’s the latest satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what several of the computer models are showing

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a weakening front. While development is not anticipated for the next couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropical development on Friday. This area of disturbed weather is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually approach the southeastern United States over the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

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