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Apr
26
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Muifa) remains active…located about 754 NM south-southwest of Iwo To, Japan

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for Tropical Cyclone 03W (Muifa)

Tropical Storm 03W (Muifa) will be modestly strengthening…although remaining over the open ocean away from land

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system – and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 03W

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show the system has maintained a degree of wrap, despite signs of convective decay, and its struggle to maintain consolidation.

Upper level analysis indicates increasing wind shear, which is being offset by excellent poleward outflow.

TC 03W will continue tracking northward over the next 12 hours… and then will shift northeast thereafter.

Good outflow and low wind shear values over the next 12 hours will promote moderate intensification, peaking at near 45 knots. Then, increased wind shear associated with the prevailing westerlies rapidly erode…and then dissipate the storm within 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #8 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 1-day precipitation accumulation layers

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 97P…located approximately 265 NM north of Darwin, Australia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a quickly consolidating low level circulation, with constant convection wrapping into the center…and a mostly circular shape.

In addition, a microwave image shows deep convection wrapping into the center, which has recently become less and less elongated.

The disturbance is currently located in a marginal although improving environment, with moderate wind shear of 20 knots. This however is being offset by strong poleward upper level outflow, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that the disturbance will continue to track to the southwest over the next several days, and are showing intensification and consolidation within the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to high.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Muifa)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Apr
25
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 03W remains active…located about 256 NM northwest of Yap

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for Tropical Cyclone 03W

Tropical Cyclone 03W will be modestly strengthening…although remaining over the open ocean away from land

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system – and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 03W

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show the system has maintained overall convective signature, as it slowly consolidates.

Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions, with low wind shear, warm sea water temperatures…and excellent poleward outflow.

TC 03W will continue tracking northwestward over the next 24 hours. Thereafter, it will shift north and finally northeast.

Increased outflow and low wind shear values over the next 24-36 hours, will promote moderate intensification, peaking at near 45 knots. Then, increased wind shear associated with the prevailing westerlies rapidly erode…and then dissipate the storm within 72 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #2 were 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 1-day precipitation accumulation layers

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 97P…located approximately 275 NM north of Darwin, Australia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show an elongated low level circulation, with persisting convection beginning to wrap into the center.

The disturbance is currently located in a marginal although improving environment, with high wind shear of 25 knots. This however is being offset by strong poleward upper level outflow, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that the disturbance will continue to track to the southwest over the next several days, although are in disagreement to when and how strongly the system will intensify.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 03W

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Apr
24
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 1-day precipitation accumulation layers

However, there’s a tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 330 NM southwest of Guam

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a consolidating low level circulation center, with flaring convection.

Upper level analysis reveals a generally favorable environment, with good outflow, both poleward and equatorward…and low wind shear values.

Global models suggest the system will recurve, with a small window for development…before encountering the entrenched westerly jet stream at near 20 degrees north latitude. The current thought is that this system won’t directly impact Okinawa.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 1-day precipitation accumulation layers

Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 97P…located approximately 270 NM northeast of Darwin, Australia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show fragmented convective cloud banding, wrapping into an elongated low level circulation center.

The system is currently located in an area of good overall outflow, low wind shear (5-10 knots), and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models suggest a slow intensification, as the system moves southwestward over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Apr
21
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Post-Tropical Cyclone 01L (Arlene) is dissipating…located about 1235 miles west of the Azores

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and 1-day precipitation accumulation layers for Post-Tropical Cyclone 01L (Arlene)

Post-Tropical Cyclone 01 (Arlene) is dissipating in the north Atlantic…remaining away from land areas

Here’s the latest satellite image of this out of season system…along with the looping version / along with a picture of Arlene yesterday / and finally a NASA satellite image of the weakening system today

The near real time wind profile of this tropical system / Maximum sustained winds 50 mph at the time of the last advisory

Tropical Storm 01L was the first April system since 2003. Since 1851…only seven tropical systems have formed before May 9th.

This makes the third straight year that a system has formed in the Atlantic…before the official June 1st start of the hurricane season.

TC Ana back in 2003 was the last April named storm in the Atlantic Basin. Ana began as a sub-tropical storm on April 20, 2003, and soon gained full tropical characteristics. That made Ana the only tropical storm on record to form in the Atlantic Basin in April.

The Atlantic hurricane season does not officially begin until June 1st and extends through November 30th.

Despite this earlier than usual activity, many forecasters expect this year to be slightly quieter than usual.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Arlene has become embedded within the circulation of a large extratropical cyclone, and lost most of its deep convection…while surrounded by cold air.

The post-tropical cyclone will move toward the southwest and south at about 20 knots…until dissipation occurs later today.

This is the last advisory on Arlene.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Post-Tropical Cyclone 01L (Arlene)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Apr
21
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 1-day precipitation accumulation layers

However, there’s a tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 585 NM south-southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show deep flaring convection slowly consolidating, and wrapping around a broad low level circulation.

The system is currently located in an area of good diffluence, low wind shear (5-10 knots), and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models suggest a gradual intensification, as the system moves west-northwest over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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