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Jan
30
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Eunice) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 763 NM south- southwest of Diego Garcia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 09S

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 09S

Tropical cyclone 09S (Eunice), is peaking in strength now, having attained the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale…over the open ocean

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 763 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia, moving towards the south-southeast at near 10 mph.

Satellite imagery shows deep symmetric central convection surrounding a small 6 NM eye.

Upper level analysis indicates that TC 09S is located in a favorable environment with low to moderate wind shear…and radial outflow. These favorable conditions will allow its current intensity to continue through the next 12 hours.

This storm has peaked at 140 knots, with wind gusts to near 170 knots. Thereafter, the intensity will steadily weaken…and won’t threaten any land areas throughout the rest of its life cycle. This weakening will be brought on by increasing wind shear aloft, and lower ocean heat content below.

Here’s computer model track guidance for TC 09S – and a NOAA satellite image

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 99P…with a high chance of developing over the eastern side of the Coral Sea

This tropical disturbance was located approximately 398 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, moving towards the southeast at near 09 mph.

Satellite imagery shows deepened convection, with formative cloud banding over the northern and southern semi-circle…wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates enhanced convection directly over the disturbance…providing excellent outflow channels.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC, are 28-33 knots (32-38 mph).

Here’s computer model track guidance for Invest 99P  – and NOAA satellite image of this tropical disturbance

Based on the structure and favorable conditions, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

PDC

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

Finally, the remnants of tropical cyclone 09S (Diamondra)…is still being tracked by the JTWC today

This tropical disturbance was located approximately 950 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia, moving towards the south-southeast at near 12 mph.

Satellite imagery shows a broad and fully exposed low level circulation center…with convection displaced well to the east.

Upper level analysis indicates an unfavorable environment as the system has become enveloped in an upper level trough of low pressure…along with high wind shear (30 knots).

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC, are 34-40 knots (39-46 mph).

Here’s computer model track guidance for this former tropical cyclone  – and a NOAA satellite image 

Based on the structure and favorable conditions, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low


Eastern North Pacific


The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Eunice)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Jan
29
2015

Hazard Highlights

Severe Winter Weather Affects U.S. and Canada; Twin Cyclones in Indian Ocean

Winter Weather Brings Heavy Snow, Extreme Cold to North America

012915

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards and Land Surface Temperature Anomaly – Daytime (8 Day) layers.

Most of North America was firmly in the grasp of severe winter weather this week as forecasts called for snow from the Northeastern United States to Central Plains (FEMA Daily Operations Briefing for 27JAN15, access), and blizzard conditions and extreme cold for parts of Nunavut, Ontario, Quebec, Newfoundland, and Labrador in Canada (GoC).

In the U.S., Winter Storm Juno brought heavy snow, high winds and coastal flooding from late January 26 to early January 28 (TWC). Travel bans on all major roadways in Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New Jersey had been implemented in preparation for the storm (though most bans were lifted by midday January 27) and 7,700 flights were cancelled (NASA, EC). According to reports, parts of Massachusetts received up to 3 feet of snow, and most other states in the region reported receiving at least a foot of snow during the storm (NCEP).

Diamondra, Eunice Form in South Indian Ocean

012915

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Rainfall Accumulation (7 Day) layers.

The South Indian Ocean saw the formation of twin tropical cyclones, Diamondra and Eunice, this week While Diamondra has been officially downgraded to a subtropical cyclone as of January 29, Eunice is still going strong and forecast to intensify over the next 24 hours with wind speeds peaking around 160 miles per hour (140 knots) (NASA).  As of the most recent warning (1500 UTC), Eunice is located approximately 637 nautical miles south-southwest of Diego Garcia with maximum sustained winds at 132 miles per hour (115 knots), and is currently not expected to pose a threat to land (JTWC Warning #5).

Tropical cyclone season in the South Indian Ocean begins in late October/early November and ends in May, with peak activity in mid-January/mid-February to early March (CPHC)

Current Hazard Warnings

Drought: United States (Pacific), Nicaragua (Northeast), Honduras (Southeast), Pakistan

Biomedical: West Africa

Severe Weather: Paraguay (Central, Southern), United States (Northeast), Greece (Northern), Finland (Central), Canada (Nunavut, Northern Manitoba), Kazakhstan (Northern)

Flood: Bolivia. Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Australia (Queensland), Peru

Tropical Storm: Eunice (Indian Ocean)

Volcano: United States (Hawaii)

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the Global Hazards Atlas.

Jan
29
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Diamondra) is dissipating in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 936 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Eunice) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 637 NM south- southwest of Diego Garcia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 08S and 09S

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 08S and 09S

Tropical cyclone 08S (Diamondra), is dissipating…and has been given its final warning by the JTWC

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 936 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia, moving towards the south-southeast at near 06 mph.

Satellite imagery shows diminishing deep convection sheared south-southeastward…of an exposed low level circulation center.

This former tropical cyclone has now been designated as a sub-tropical system, and as such…has been given its final warning by the JTWC.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC warning #6, are 45 knots sustained…with 55 knot gusts.

Here’s computer model track guidance for former TC 08S – and the Navy satellite image of this dissipating tropical system…to the right.

Tropical cyclone 09S (Eunice), will steadily gain strength, attaining the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale…over the open ocean

Here’s a NASA satellite image of this very powerful tropical cyclone

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 637 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia, moving towards the south-southeast at near 12 mph.

Satellite imagery shows deepened central convection surrounding a 5 NM eye. There is tightly wound cloud banding…wrapping into a well defined eye.

Upper level analysis indicates that TC 09S is located in a favorable environment with low wind shear…and dual outflow channels. These favorable conditions support a significant intensity increase over the next 12 hours…up to an additional 25 knots.

This storm is forecast to peak at 140 knots, with wind gusts to near 170 knots between 24-36 hours. Thereafter, the peak intensity will slowly weaken…and won’t threaten any land areas throughout the rest of its life cycle.

Maximum sustained surface winds now, according the JTWC warning #5, are 115 knots sustained…with 140 knot gusts.

Here’s computer model track guidance for TC 09S

Eastern North Pacific


The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Diamondra) - Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NRL satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Eunice)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Jan
28
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Diamondra) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 827 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Eunice) is now active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 622 NM southwest of Diego Garcia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 08S and 09S

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 08S and 09S

Tropical cyclone 08S (Diamondra), will steadily gain a bit more strength…remaining at tropical storm strength over the open ocean

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 827 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia, moving towards the southeast at near 05 mph.

While there is expected to be further intensification of the system in the short term, through the next 24 hours or so, a steady weakening trend is expected thereafter. This storm is forecast to peak at 55 knots, with wind gusts to near 70 knots.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC warning #4, are 45 knots sustained…with 55 knot gusts.

Here’s computer model track guidance for TC 08S – and the Navy satellite image of this tropical storm (the system to the right)

Tropical cyclone 09S (Eunice), will steadily gain strength, attaining the equivalent of a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale…over the open ocean

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 622 NM southwest of Diego Garcia, moving towards the south-southeast at near 07 mph.

There is forecast to be an impressive intensification of the system through the next 48 hours or so, followed by a steady weakening trend thereafter. This storm is forecast to peak at 125 knots, with wind gusts to near 150 knots.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC warning #3, are 85 knots sustained…with 105 knot gusts.

Here’s computer model track guidance for TC 09S – and the Navy satellite image of this tropical storm (the system to the left)

Eastern North Pacific


The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Diamondra)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NRL satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Eunice)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Jan
27
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Diamondra) is now active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 732 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 08S and a tropical disturbance

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 08S and a tropical disturbance

Tropical cyclone 08S (Diamondra), will steadily gain a bit more strength, although will likely fall just short of reaching the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane…over the open ocean

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 732 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia, moving towards the south-southeast at near 07 mph.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows this system has continued to deepen, and has expanded in coverage…especially on the eastern side of the low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates that this tropical storm is in an area of light to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear…which is offset by radial outflow.

While there is expected to be further intensification of the system in the short term, through the next 36 hours or so, a fairly rapid weakening trend is expected thereafter. This will be due to increased wind shear aloft, and poor ocean heat content below.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC warning #2, are 45 knots sustained…with 55 knot gusts.

Here’s computer model track guidance for TC 08S – Navy satellite image of this tropical storm

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather to the northwest of TC 08S

>>>  This area of disturbed weather, circled in red above, is being referred to as Invest 98S, and was located approximately 645 NM west-southwest of Diego Garcia

Satellite imagery shows that this system has slightly consolidated over the past six hours, with formative cloud banding beginning to wrap into the low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment for development, with low wind shear…along with good outflow channels.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots (29-35 mph).

According to the JTWC, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather

Here’s computer model track guidance for 98S

 

Eastern North Pacific


The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Diamondra)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NRL satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

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