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Aug
29
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Post-tropical cyclone 13E (Marie) is dissipating in the northeastern Pacific…located approximately 985 miles west-southwest of San Diego, California – Final Advisory

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Post-tropical Cyclone Marie

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Post-tropical Cyclone Marie

Post-tropical cyclone 13E (Marie)  continues to weaken, and has been downgraded to a remnant low pressure system

Wind speeds at the time of advisory #30 were 40 mph sustained…with higher gusts. 

According to the NHC, there has been no organized deep thunderstorms within the low level circulation of this system for several hours, so Marie has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone.

The large circulation of Marie will gradually spin down over the cold, open ocean sea waters of the northeastern Pacific Ocean.

Now retired Marie is moving northwestward at about 12 knots (14 mph). The cyclone should slow down as it moves away from a mid-level high pressure ridge near California…into an area of lighter steering currents.

The low-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Marie after that time, causing the post-tropical cyclone to move west-northwestward and…eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period.

Large southerly swells are still affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and the coast of southern California, although will gradually subside through tonight. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. The NWS Los Angeles is saying: MARIE`S SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

Here’s a satellite image of  post-tropical cyclone Marie.

Eastern North Pacific

Post-tropical cyclone 13E (Marie) – Final Advisory

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas


Eastern Pacific Satellite Image


Here’s the northeast Pacific’s
Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Aug
29
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Post-tropical cyclone 04L (Cristobal) remains active in the northern Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 300 miles east-southeast of Cape Race, NewfoundlandFinal Advisory

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Post-tropical Cyclone Cristobal

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Post-tropical Cyclone Cristobal

Post-tropical cyclone (Cristobal) is now a powerful storm in the northern Atlantic Ocean

Here’s a NASA satellite image of Cristobal racing across the northern Atlantic Ocean. Now retired Cristobal’s maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph, which are still of hurricane force…although are expected to diminish over the next 36 hours.

According to the NHC, former tropical cyclone Cristobal has completed its transformation into a powerful extra-tropical cyclone.

A recent satellite pass revealed a large swath of 50-60 knot winds (58-69 mph) to the southeast of the center.

Although some gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, the low is expected to remain a large and powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic…until it merges with another large low pressure system near Iceland in 36 to 48 hours.

The cyclone has been moving northeast at more than 46 mph during the past 6 to 12 hours.

The United Kingdom Meteorological Service (UKMS) expects the storm to move northeast across the Atlantic toward Iceland, staying well away from the United Kingdom. The latest forecast has Cristobal bringing stronger winds across northwestern parts of Scotland, and rain across the United Kingdom on Sunday, August 31st through September 1st.

Here’s the current NOAA satellite image of this post-tropical storm

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance moving through the Caribbean Sea

Here’s a satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico…and the Caribbean Sea

The area circled in yellow above, is being referred to as Invest 97L, and is located in the central Caribbean Sea. It has lots of thunderstorms, although the limiting factor at this point continues to be the wind shear that’s blowing over the top of this disturbance.

There’s a very low chance of this cyclone spinning-up into a tropical cyclone over the next two days. The NHC suggests that chances will increase to a somewhat higher 20% over the next five days.

97L will continue moving west to west-northwest for the time being, which will eventually bring it over the western Caribbean, then over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Heavy rains will accompany the disturbance as it crosses the Peninsula, before it moves out over the very warm water of the Bay of Campeche early next week.

If this disturbance remains organized enough, there’s a better chance that it could find more favorable environmental conditions…and perhaps become a tropical depression then.

Here’s  a satellite image of this area.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather located just offshore from western Africa.  

This area of disturbed weather has moved off the coast of Africa today, and is moving in a westward direction at near 15 mph. 

The NHC is giving this disturbance a very low 0% chance of developing over the next two days, which increases to 10% over the next five days.

 

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Post-tropical Cyclone 04L (Cristobal) - Final Advisory

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing minimal
shower activity.  Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for development of this system during the next several
days while it moves westward near 15 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next day or so. However, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some development when the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday,

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent 

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Aug
28
2014

Hazard Highlights

Marie and Cristobal Kicking Up Surf along U.S. Coasts

High Surf and Strong Currents Expected through Friday

082814

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards and Wave Height (24 Hour) layers.

The National Weather Service is still advising those along the California (U.S.) coast of high surf and dangerous rip currents as Tropical Storm Marie continues its northwesterly track through the Eastern Pacific. As of the latest advisory (Thursday morning), Marie is expected to gradually weaken but continue to produce large swells along southern California, with potential for coastal flooding in some areas during high tide (NWS). Forecasts through late Friday expect surf from 5 to 8 feet in Los Angeles County, 6 to 10 feet in Orange County, and generally less than 7 feet in San Diego (but with particularly strong rip and longshore currents).

082814

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards and Ocean Current Velocity layers.

As of Advisory #27 (1400 PDT), Tropical Storm Marie is located 1480 kilometers west-southwest of San Diego, California with maximum sustained winds at 40 miles per hour (NHC).

082814

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards and Wave Height Forecast (24 Hour) layers.

On the other side of the country, the northeastern United States is also under high surf advisory as Hurricane Cristobal strengthens along the North Atlantic coast (NWS). The advisory remains in effect until Friday morning for beaches from Brooklyn to Montauk with surf heights of 4 to 7 feet and strong rip currents expected through Thursday evening.

As of Advisory #21 (1700 AST) Cristobal is located 435 miles from Halifax, Nova Scotia and moving east-northeast with maximum sustained winds near 80 miles per hour (NHC). Large swells generated by the tropical cyclone are also currently affecting Bermuda and expected to affect portions of the southern coast of Nova Scotia in the coming day or so.

Current Hazard Warnings

Biomedical: West Africa

Drought: Kazakhstan (Northwest), United States (Southwest, Pacific), Ethiopia

High Surf: United States (Northeast, Southern California)

Earthquake: Peru (Tambo)

Flood: India, United States (Montana), Sudan (Central)

Wildfire: Canada (British Columbia), United States (California)

Tropical Storm: Cristobal (Atlantic)

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the Global Hazards Atlas page.

Aug
28
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Marie) remains active in the northeastern Pacific…located approximately 865 miles west of Punta Eugenia, Mexico – Tropical Storm

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Marie

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Marie

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Marie)  continues to weaken, and has been downgraded to a tropical storm

Wind speeds at the time of advisory #27 were 45 mph sustained…with higher gusts. The NHC forecast suggests that this tropical storm will be downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone within the next 12-24 hours.

According to the NHC, Marie has continued to produce a small area of thunderstorms south and east of the center…over the past few hours.  Deep convection should dissipate shortly, now that Marie is moving over cooler sea surface temperatures, and should become post-tropical by tonight.

A general northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. Marie is forecast to slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of the period, as it’s steered by the low-level wind flow.

Large southerly swells are still affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and the coast of southern California…although will gradually subside today. These swells may still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.

Despite the NHC forecast track taking a jog towards the southeast…there is no threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

Here’s a satellite image of  Tropical Storm Marie…along with what the computer models are showing.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather near Vietnam, being referred to as Invest 99W…located about 94 NM east-southeast of Hanoi

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows flaring thunderstorm activity over the low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates that the system is under low to moderately strong wind shear.

Computer models don’t develop this disturbance however, as it moves over the northern coast of Vietnam.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots (17-23 mph).

Due to the movement inland over Vietnam, that is occurring now…the JTWC is giving this disturbance a low chance of developing.

The associated thunderstorms however will bring rainfall to the area, along with some possible localized flooding…and gusty breezes too.

Here’s a satellite image of this area.

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Marie)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas


Eastern Pacific Satellite Image


Here’s the northeast Pacific’s
Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Aug
28
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 04L (Cristobal) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 545 miles south-southwest of Halifax, Nova ScotiaCategory 1 Hurricane

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Cristobal

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Cristobal

Hurricane 04L (Cristobal) continues to gradually strengthen, passing well offshore of the east coast of the United States…heading towards Iceland

Hurricane Cristobal’s maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph…which are expected to reach 85 mph over the next 24 hours.

According to the NHC, the satellite presentation of Cristobal has become much more symmetrical.

Some strengthening is expected today while the hurricane remains over a warm sea surface. The tropical cyclone will begin to interact with a frontal zone tonight, and should complete extra-tropical transition Friday. The global models indicate that the extra-tropical low will remain a powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next few days.

Hurricane Cristobal is moving northeastward at a quick paced 23 knots (27 mph). This tropical cyclone will continue to accelerate northeastward, embedded in the mid-latitude prevailing westerlies.

Open ocean vessels should be giving this hurricane a wide berth, as dangerous conditions exist along its path, and will continue to do so into the weekend.

The NWS has issued a high surf advisory for 6-12 foot breakers, along with rip currents on the southern coasts of Rhode Island and Massachusetts…including Cape Cod and the nearby islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
---------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND THE 
U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. 
LARGE SWELLS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF 
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Here’s the current NOAA satellite image of this storm…along with what the computer models are showing.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...Global Clouds

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…Global Clouds

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance moving through the Caribbean Sea…along with another close to the southern coast of Texas

Here’s a satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico…and the Caribbean Sea

The first area circled in yellow above, is being referred to as Invest 97L, and is located in the eastern Caribbean Sea. It has lots of thunderstorms, although the limiting factor at this point is the wind shear that’s blowing over the top of this disturbance.

There’s a very low chance of this cyclone spinning-up into a tropical cyclone over the next two days. The NHC suggests that chances will increase to a somewhat higher 20% over the next five days.

97L will continue moving west to west-northwest for the time being, which will eventually bring it over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Heavy rains will accompany the disturbance as it crosses the Peninsula, before it moves out over the very warm water of the Bay of Campeche after the weekend. If this disturbance remains organized enough, there’s a chance that it could find more favorable environmental conditions…and perhaps become a tropical depression then.

Here’s  a satellite image of this area.

~~~ Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, also circled in yellow above, which is being referred to as Invest 98L…having a low chance of developing as well.

This disturbance is located near the coast of southern Texas…close to the border of Mexico.

Thunderstorm activity appears to be taking on a better shape now, although wind shear aloft is troublesome. However, the wind shear is being offset by the amply warm sea surface temperatures under this disturbance.

The computer models are showing this area low pressure bringing heavy rainfall to parts of Texas…and the northeastern Mexico region as well. As this disturbance moves inland, the chances of development will fade quickly.

Here’s the looping radar image from the Brownsville, Texas NWS office.

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 04L (Cristobal)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while the system moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. However, environmental conditions could become conducive for some development when the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent 

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  A weak area of low pressure near the coast of South Texas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely before it moves inland over South Texas and northern Mexico today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

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