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Dec
17
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 32W (Kai-tak) is located about 190 NM south-southeast of Manila, Philippines

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model or TC 32W

Tropical Cyclone 32W (Kai-tak) remains active…as it moves through the Philippine Islands

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows significantly weakened convection with a fully exposed low level circulation center.

Meanwhile, animated radar imagery from Pagasa shows heavy rain bands persisting over the central Philippines.

Upper air analysis shows an area of strong diffluence to the west of TD 32W…with strong 25 knot wind shear. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures remain warm and conducive for development…although recent land interaction and the high shear environment has severely weakened the system.

TD 32W will track generally westward, while weakening as wind shear persists and the low level circulation tracks over the Visayan Islands.

Around 24 hours TD 32W will reemerge and reconsolidate over the warm waters of the South China Sea…as it reintensifies slightly.

Beyond 72 hours, wind shear will weaken and dissipate the system.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #16 were 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 97W…located 406 NM east-southeast of Palau

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depict an elongated low level circulation center, with scattered convection.

Upper level analysis indicates low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear and favorable outflow. There is warm sea water in the area…which will support future development.

Global models are mixed, showing varying degrees of consolidation over the next 72 hours…and no consensus on the track motion.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 32W (Kai-tak)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Dec
16
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 32W (Kai-tak) is located about 358 NM east-northeast of Puerto Princesa, Philippineshttps://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/wp3217.gif

Tropical Cyclone 32W (Kai-tak) remains active…as it moves through the Philippine Islands

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a system now over land with flaring central convection, significantly weakened over the past 6-hours.

Meanwhile, animated radar imagery from Pagasa shows heavy rain bands persisting over the central Philippines.

Upper air analysis shows good divergence to the west of the system, however strong easterlies are creating a high shear environment in excess of 30 knots. Sea surface temperatures in the area are warm.

TD 32W will track generally westward, while weakening as wind shear persists and the low level circulation tracks over the Visayan Islands.

Around 36 hours TD 32W will reemerge and reconsolidate over the warm waters of the South China Sea…as it gradually reintensifies.

Beyond 72 hours, wind shear will weaken, and the storm will peak at near 45 knots.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #14 were 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 97W…located 392 NM southwest of Chuuk

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts an elongated and ill-defined low level circulation center, with scattered convection.

Upper level analysis indicates low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear and favorable diffluence aloft. There is warm sea water in the area…which will support development.

Global models are in good agreement that the disturbance will track to the west-northwest over the next several days with steady development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 32W (Kai-tak)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Dec
15
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 32W (Kai-tak) is located about 436 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model or TC 32W

Tropical Cyclone 32W (Kai-tak) is active in the Philippine Sea…as it gets ready to move through the Philippine Islands

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a persistent central cold cover obscuring the low level circulation center.

Meanwhile, animated radar imagery from Pagasa shows heavy rain bands persisting over the central Philippines.

Upper air analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with strong 30-35 knot easterly wind shear, offset by strong diffluence aloft.

In the near term, the model trackers remain in agreement through the next 72 hours, depicting a slow westward track over water through 24 hours. The system should intensify slowly to a peak intensity of 50 knots.

After making landfall, TS 32W should weaken gradually due to the persistent wind shear, and land interaction as it moves across the central Philippine Islands.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #8 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 97W…located 353 NM south-southeast of Chuuk

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

The JTWC reports that increased deep convection is over a broad low level circulation center. The disturbance is currently located in an area of good divergence aloft, with low 10-15 knot wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures. In addition, fragmented, formative deep convective banding is wrapping into a weakly defined center.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with low 10-15 knot wind shear and broad diffluence aloft. There is very warm sea water in the area…which will aid development.

Global models are in good agreement that the disturbance will track to the west-northwest over the next several days with gradual development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to medium

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 32W (Kai-tak)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Dec
14
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 32W (Kai-tak) is located about 428 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii or TC 32W

Tropical Cyclone 32W (Kai-tak) is active in the Philippine Sea…as it gets ready to move through the Philippine Islands with time

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a broad, exposed low level circulation center, with deep convection displaced over the western semi-circle…due to moderate to strong 20-30 knot wind shear.

Meanwhile, animated radar imagery from Pagasa shows heavy rain bands persisting over the central Philippines.

In the near term, there is a large degree of uncertainty in the exact track of the system, due to competing steering influences and broad nature of the system. Model trackers indicate a large spread…from north-northeastward to west-southwestward through the next 48 hours.

The system should intensify slowly to a peak of 40 knots, with weakening thereafter…allowing it to quicken its pace across the central Philippines, while weakening due to increased land interaction and persistent wind shear.

After 72 hours, TS 32W is forecast to experience a slight re-intensification, with dissipation over the South China Sea.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #6 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 97W…located 335 NM south-southeast of Chuuk

JTWC reports that satellite and microwave imagery depict a broad low level circulation center, with flaring disorganized convection.

The disturbance is currently located in an area of good divergence aloft, low 10-15 knot wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that the disturbance will track to the west-northwest over the next several days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12-18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 32W (Kai-tak)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Dec
13
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 32W is located about 418 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii or TC 32W

Tropical Cyclone 32W is now active…as it moves through the Philippine Islands

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #1 were 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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