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Mar
27
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 04W is now active in the northwest Pacific Ocean…located approximately 100 NM west-northwest of Pohnpei

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 04W

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 04W

Tropical cyclone 04W is active, and is forecast to move just north of Chuuk, well south of Guam, just north of Yap, and well north of Palau..perhaps on its way towards the Philippines next week

Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC 04W – along with a NOAA looping satellite image

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 100 NM west-northwest of Pohnpei…moving west-northwestward at 10 mph.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows deepened central convection with formative cloud bands wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates that TC 04W remains in an area of moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, being offset by excellent poleward outflow.

TC 04W is forecast to have a steady intensification, as environment conditions aloft remain very favorable…in addition to passage over a very warm sea surface.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #3, are 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots.

Here’s computer model track guidance for 04W – along with a NOAA satellite image of this tropical cyclone

It’s too early to know how this strengthening tropical cyclone will influence the Philippine Islands. The JTWC shows this storm reaching typhoon strength in about 72 hours…as it moves into the Philippine Sea. Some of the weather models show this system turning to the northwest and north, which would keep it from impacting the Philippine Islands. On the other hand, there are models that continue the JTWC track more or less in a west-northwest track…which would bring it into the east coast of the Philippines next week.

Nonetheless, this storm will be influencing several smaller islands over the next several days. The following information comes from the NWS office in Guam -

Here’s the NWS Guam forecast track for 04W

TROPICAL STORM 04W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GAM
300 AM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015 (local time)

TROPICAL STORM 04W MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE…

AREAS AFFECTED… THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK…LOSAP…FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE. .

WATCHES/WARNINGS… TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK…LOSAP…FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

STORM INFORMATION… AT 1 AM CHST…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.2 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
295 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
455 MILES EAST OF ULUL
490 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
880 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL STORM 04W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH.

SITUATION OVERVIEW… TROPICAL STORM 04W WILL MOVE WEST TODAY…CROSSING INTO CHUUK STATE LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS FORECAST TO PASS ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF LOSAP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING…THEN PASS ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK AND 25 MILES SOUTH OF FANANU LATER ON SUNDAY MORNING. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… …LOSAP AND CHUUK… PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON…SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FANANU… PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING…SHIFTING TO EAST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ULUL… PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING…SHIFTING TO EAST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY…INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET TONIGHT. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SURF INFORMATION… DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED REEFS FOR MOST ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF CHUUK STATE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04W  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Mar
26
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

There’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwest Pacific Ocean, circled in red above…which has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 98W, was located approximately 115 NM east of Pohnpei. If the system does develop, it could impact Guam with rain and wind with time.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image showing this area…and in the looping mode

Satellite imagery shows a large area of convection, with formative cloud banding over the northern semi-circle…wrapping into a slowly developing low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis reveals this system is in an area of low to moderate 10-20 knot (12-23 mph) wind shear…and good poleward outflow. Additionally, warm sea surface temperatures are conducive for development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are 18-23 knots (21-27 mph).

Here’s computer model track guidance for Invest 98W – and a NOAA satellite image of this tropical disturbance.

Some of the computer models show this system turning northwest and north before reaching the Philippines, while others bring it into the central Philippines…time will tell.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is saying that the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

The NWS office in Guam has issued a Special Weather Statement -

CHUUK-POHNPEI – 1000 PM CHST THU MAR 26 2015


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN POHNPEI STATE…


A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIDED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM PINGELAP IN POHNPEI STATE TO BE NEAR 6.5N 160.1E. THIS IS ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOKIL…135 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI AND 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.


THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE IT CLOSE TO IF NOT OVER MOKIL TONIGHT AND POHNPEI AND PAKIN SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOCATED WEST OF THE CENTER.


AT THIS TIME ISLANDS IN THE PATH OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH.
ISLANDS IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE THE ISLANDS OF MOKIL…POHNPEI AND PAKIN. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS AT THIS TIME. ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE SHOULD KEEP ADVISED ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Mar
25
2015

Hazard Highlights

Adverse Weather Conditions Impact Response to Chile Wildfires; Low Seasonal Rainfall Impacts Southern Africa

Wildfires in Southern Chile Ravage National Parks

032515

PDC Global Hazards Atlas, centered on Chile, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Global Wind (speed and direction), and Surface Air Temperature layers.

Wildfires have burned through thousands of hectares of the China Muerta and Nalca Lolco national reserves, as well as Conguillio National Park in Chile (NASA). As of March 25, officials report 38 active fires and 69 controlled fires throughout the regions of Maule, Biobío, Araucanía, Los Ríos, Los Lagos, and Valparaíso (ONEMI). Strong winds, unusually hot weather, and drought conditions continue to hinder firefighting efforts (Reuters).

Abnormal Dryness, Drought Conditions Persist in Southern Africa

032515

PDC Global Hazards Atlas, centered on southern Africa, displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (7 Day) layers.

Low seasonal rainfall since December has negatively affected ground conditions in Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and South Africa. Increased rainfall is expected in the coming week, but with the rainy season nearing an end, there is little opportunity to make up for moisture deficits (CPC).

Current Hazard Warnings

Drought: Namibia, United States (Western), Brazil (Eastern)

Biomedical: West Africa

Severe Weather: Tanzania, Canada (Eastern)

Wildfire: Chile

Flood: United States (Mississippi Valley), Afghanistan

Volcano: United States (Hawaii)

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the Global Hazards Atlas.

Mar
25
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

There’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwest Pacific Ocean, circled in yellow above…which has a low chance of developing

This tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 98W, was located approximately 430 NM east of Pohnpei.

Satellite imagery shows a weak, disorganized low level circulation center, with flaring, poorly organized, curved cloud banding, over the northern semi-circle.

Upper level analysis reveals this system is in an area of moderate 15-25 knot (17-29 mph) wind shear…and diffluent easterly flow

Maximum sustained surface winds are 10-15 knots (12-17 mph).

Here’s computer model track guidance for Invest 98W – and a NOAA satellite image of this tropical disturbance

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is saying that the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Mar
24
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Nathan) is now dissipating inland over the Northern Territory…located approximately 88 NM east of Darwin, Australia – Final Warning

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for retiring Tropical Cyclone 18P

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for retiring Tropical Cyclone 18P

Now Retiring Tropical cyclone 18P (Nathan) is weakening quickly as it continues moving over land

Here’s a NASA satellite image of this system…taken today

Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC Nathan – and the current Darwin radar loop – which shows evidence of the weakened structure of this fading system…with a weakly defined center at best.

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 88 NM east of Darwin, Australia…moving west-southwestward at 8 mph.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows an exposed, broadening low level circulation center, with isolated deep convection sheared southeastward.

Upper level analysis indicates that TC 18P remains under northwesterly wind shear…which is forecast to persist.

Former TC Nathan is expected to continue weakening through the next 48 hours, with some potential for re-development after 60-72 hours…as the environmental conditions improve. This would occur, if and when whatever is left of this system moves over the warm waters of the south Indian Ocean. Nonetheless, the JTWC has issued its final warning on this system.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #28, are 30 knots…with gusts to 40 knots.

Here’s computer model track guidance for 18P – along with a NOAA satellite image of this tropical cyclone 

 According to the Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), here’s information on this retiring system -

Weather Situation - 

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan is moving across the northwest Arnhem district. The remnant tropical low is expected to track towards the west tonight and tomorrow and remain below tropical cyclone strength.

Thunderstorms with peak gusts around 90 km/h and severe thunderstorms and rain which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are forecast for the southern Arnhem forecast district and extending to parts of the Daly forecast district on Wednesday.

Locations that may be affected include Douglas River, Nauiyu, Peppimenarti, Barunga, Beswick, Bulman, Central Arnhem Plateau, Ngukurr, Numbulwar and Litchfield National Park.

Between 9 am and 10:30 pm CST on Tuesday, Snowdrop Creek recorded 197 mm and Upper Waterhouse River 92 mm.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should:

  • Secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when conditions deteriorate.
  • Ensure pets and animals are in a safe area.
  • Pull over if it is raining heavily and you cannot see, park with your hazard lights on until the rain clears.
  • Avoid driving into water of unknown depth and current.
  • Create your own sandbags if there is flooding, by using pillow cases or shopping bags filled with sand and place them around doorways to protect your home.
  • Be prepared in case of power outages, have an emergency kit with a battery operated radio, torch, spare batteries and first aid kit.
  • Keep away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the North Pacific Ocean, circled in yellow above…which has a low chance of developing

This tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 98W, was located approximately 210 NM south-southeast of Majuro

Satellite imagery shows that a broad, disorganized low level circulation center, with flaring, poorly organized deep convection.

Upper level analysis reveals a marginal environment, with moderate 15-25 knot wind shear…and a diffluent easterly outflow.

Maximum sustained surface winds are 10-15 knots.

Here’s computer model track guidance for Invest 98W  – and a NOAA satellite image of this tropical disturbance

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is saying that the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Nathan) - Final Warning 

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

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