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Jul
28
2016

Hazard Highlights

Warning-level Flooding Continues Across Three Continents

Flooding

The Global Hazards Atlas centered on Africa and displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (7 Day). Intense rainfall can be seen from Myanmar in the east to the Atlantic coast of northern South America. Just off-screen to the west, flooding is also impacting Colombia.

For the past two weeks, we have watched the flooding intensify in India. Now, that flooding has become regional, affecting Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh, while continuing to impact India. According to a report published on Thursday, July 28, on ReliefWeb, “Floods and landslides in Nepal and India have killed more than 90 people in recent days, with at least two million residents forced to flee their homes… Images released by the army, which is involved in the operations, showed villagers waiting on rooftops to be evacuated in motorboats.” (ReliefWeb) “An estimated two million people have been rendered homeless after the floods hit 3,000 villages in 21 districts,” Assam chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal told journalists during a tour of hard-hit areas on Thursday.

To the east, in Myanmar, the primary impact area of the flooding as of Thursday, is the villages in Sagaing Division’s Kalewa Township along the Chindwin River. Tragically, according to another ReliefWeb report, “these villages are now experiencing a shortage of clean drinking water amid floods inundating homes and sullying water sources….” This flooding has been ongoing for weeks: “Our village has been inundated since 9 July and now we are experiencing a drinking-water shortage,” said one local man. “Now we have to take a boat to the middle of the river to fetch clean water.” Adding to their woes, and raising the risk of health problems, he added that many villagers are unable to boil water because of a lack of fuel. In addition to the ReliefWeb report, interested readers may want to look at the original one from the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) because it includes links to many current stories of disasters in Myanmar (Burma).

In Africa, flooding is at warning level in both the eastern portion of the continent, primarily Sudan, and in the west, Burkina Faso and its neighbors. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook for July 28–August 3 (CPC) gives this forecast for the flooded areas: “Torrential rain is forecast to continue over western Sudan and the highlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea….” The same Africa Hazards Outlook, mentions that the flooding in West Africa has continued and increased “over the past several weeks,” and then offers this look ahead: “During the next week, moderate to heavy rain is forecast… maintaining elevated risks for flooding over southern Mali and parts of Burkina Faso.” So, for these regions, there is no relief in view over the coming six or seven days.

Sudan, situated in a part of the world where armed conflict and the mass movement of refugees is currently in progress, is not particularly well equipped to handle disaster without these added stress factors, as you can see below.

Sudan 07-2016

Multi Hazard Risk

This Week in Hazards

  • There is some good news for Australia. For the past week, there was warning-level flooding in Victoria and Tasmania. Conditions changed such that the warning was allowed to expire this morning (July 28) and now the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, reporting for the entire country (BOM) says, “The following Watches/Warnings are current: Moderate Flood Warning for the King River, Minor Flood Warning for the Ovens River, Minor Flood Warning for the Kiewa River, Minor Flood Warning for the Latrobe River, Minor Flood Warning for the Murray River U/S of Lake Hume, Minor Flood Warning for the Thomson River.” Now, seven flood warnings may not sound like good news, but in this case it is. Conditions are greatly improved. Flood watches, less ominous than warnings, are still in effect for Victoria and Tasmania, as they are for New South Wales, and the national capital territory.
  • Two earthquakes of note have stricken very recently in/near Chile. The first, a magnitude 6 off the coast of Aisen, Chile, struck on July 27 at 1:25 in the morning UTC (9:25 p.m., July 26, Chile time). The second, a magnitude 5.6 hit 155 kilometers south southeast of San Pedro de Atacama, Chile, on July 27 at 6:59 in the morning UTC (2:59 a.m., Chile time). It’s good news again: a search of all relevant web resources turned up no reports of damage or injury.

Current Hazard Warnings

Extreme Heat: United States (eastern states, California, Nevada, Arizona)

Flood: Sudan, Western Africa, Myanmar, Nepal, India, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Colombia

Wildfire: United States (Idaho, Wyoming) 

Drought: United States (western and southern states)

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the Global Hazards Atlas.

Jul
28
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 920 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank)…and an area of disturbance with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank)…and an area of disturbance with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days


Tropical Depression 07E (Frank)
remains active over the eastern Pacific…with no threat to land

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s the near real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone

Tropical Depression Frank is moving toward the west-northwest at near 8 mph.

This is the first time since July 2nd…that there’s only one active tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific!

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Frank has only been devoid of organized deep convection since about 0400 UTC, so the system is still being maintained as a tropical cyclone for this advisory.

However, if this downward convective trend continues, which appears likely since Frank is now moving over cooler sea-surface temperatures, then the cyclone will become a remnant low pressure system this afternoon.

Continued spin down should result in dissipation of the low-level circulation by 72 hours.

Microwave satellite fixes indicate that Frank is now moving at 290 degrees at 07 knots.

The weakening cyclone is forecast to become more vertically shallow over the next 48 hours, which should result in a turn toward the west…and then west-southwest, accompanied by gradual deceleration due to weak easterly trade wind flow.

The current NHC track would keep Frank well away from the Hawaiian Islands

>>> Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization.

This tropical disturbance is circled in red in the PDC Atlas above.

This disturbance, which would be named Howard if it gets to tropical storm strength…is expected to move west-northwest and not influence weather in Mexico.

This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 91E, here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing

Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and an area of disturbance with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24-hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and an area of disturbance with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24-hours


Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance, circled in yellow above…in the Philippine Sea

This area is located approximately 550 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines

This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 96W…here’s a satellite image…and what the model guidance shows…and a near real time wind profile of this tropical disturbance.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts increased convection along the periphery of a broad but improving low level circulation center.

The current environment supports continued strengthening, with low wind shear, decent divergent outflow…and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement on development of this disturbance over the next couple of days, as it tracks north-northwestward.

Maximum sustained winds in this area are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for development within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank)  

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

1.) Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Jul
28
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last day…in addition to a tropical disturbance offshore from the west coast of Africa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last day…in addition to a tropical disturbance offshore from the west coast of Africa

There are no active tropical cyclones…according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida

However, there is a tropical disturbance (circled in orange on the PDC Global Hazards Atlas above) which is well offshore from the coast of west Africa…being referred to as Invest 96L. This is the first tropical disturbance of the season, and currently has a low chance of developing.

Here’s a satellite image of this area, along with what the computer models are showing.

Invest 96L will remain over the open ocean, well southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, with no threat to islands or land areas

Invest 96L is a A tropical wave, accompanied by a low pressure system…producing an area of showers and thunderstorms about 400 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.

Some development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

However, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development early next week when the system is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

The Thursday morning runs of reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone generation, all supported some limited development of 96L…although all stopped short of predicting it would become a tropical depression.

One possibility may be that this disturbance grows in organization over the next few days, coming close to, or achieving tropical depression status by Saturday.  Although it could thereafter get shut down by increasing wind shear and the intrusion dry air…before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands next week.  

This is the time of year when tropical cyclone activity typically increases over the Atlantic Ocean.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms about 400 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Some development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development early next week when the system is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Jul
27
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 695 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California

Post-Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette) is dissipating in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 1295 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California – Final Advisory

Tropical Cyclone 05W (Mirinae) is dissipating inland over Vietnam…located about 58 NM south-southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam – Final Warning

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank) and dissipating Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette)…and an area of disturbance with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank) and dissipating Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette)…and an area of disturbance with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days

Tropical Storm 07E (Frank) remains active over the eastern Pacific…no threat to land

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s the near real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone

Tropical Storm Frank is moving toward the west-northwest at near 12 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Frank is quickly weakening today, with a shrinking area of deep convection near and northwest of the center.

Steady weakening is expected due to the cyclone moving over progressively colder waters and into a more stable airmass. The official intensity forecast suggests that Frank should degenerate into a remnant low by tomorrow afternoon.

Microwave data indicate the storm continues moving 295 degrees (WNW )10 knots (12 mph).

Frank should turn westward and slow down as the tropical cyclone becomes a weak and shallow remnant low pressure system. Models have shifted a little southward on this cycle, and the official forecast follows that trend.

The current NHC track would keep Frank well away from the Hawaiian Islands

>>> Post-Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette) is dissipating over the eastern Pacific…no threat to land

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s the near real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone

Post-Tropical Cyclone Georgette is moving toward the west-northwest at near 9 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Georgette is now devoid of organized deep convection. The cyclone is currently located over cooler sea surface temperatures…and moving toward colder water.

In addition, Georgette has entrained a large field of stable stratocumulus clouds, which now completely encircle the system. Therefore, Georgette is now declared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

A west-northwestward to westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, while the low continues to weaken.

Dissipation is forecast to occur by 72 hours. Even though Georgette is no longer a tropical cyclone, recent altimeter data indicated that an area of seas higher than 12 feet still existed near the system.

There’s a chance that the leftover moisture from this dissipating low pressure system may bring some showers to the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.

>>> Meanwhile, disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area of low pressure centered about 700 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system later this week, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Retiring Tropical Cyclone 05W (Mirinae)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Retiring Tropical Cyclone 05W (Mirinae)

Tropical Storm 05W (Mirinae) is dissipating inland over Vietnam…located approximately 58 NM south-southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s the near real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery indicates that TS 05W made landfall over the northeastern coast of Vietnam, approximately 60 NM south-southeast of Hanoi,

Animated  IR satellite imagery shows improved convective cloud bands wrapping into the consolidated low level circulation center.

TC 05W is forecast to track further inland and dissipate within the next 24 hours…as it moves over the mountainous terrain of Vietnam.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #9 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots.

This is the JTWC’s Final Warning for this system.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank)  

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Post-Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette) – Final Advisory

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

1.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area of low pressure centered about 700 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system later this week, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 05W (Mirinae) – Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Jul
27
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last day...in addition to a tropical disturbance

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last day…in addition to a tropical disturbance coming off the west coast of Africa

There are no active tropical cyclones…according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida

However, there is a tropical disturbance which is moving off the coast of Africa…being referred to as Invest 96L. This is the first tropical disturbance of the season, and currently has a low chance of developing.

Here’s a satellite image of this area, along with what the computer models are showing.

Invest 96L will remain over the open ocean, well south of the Cape Verde Islands, with no threat to islands or land areas

Invest 96L is a tropical wave, located along the coast of western Africa, and is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.

This is the time of year when tropical cyclone activity typically increases over the Atlantic Ocean.

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  A tropical wave located along the coast of western Africa is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

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