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Jun
30
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 09W (Chan-hom) is now active in the northwestern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 204 NM northeast of Pohnpei

Tropical Cyclone 25P is now active in the southwestern Pacific Ocean…it was located approximately 1068 NM north-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 09W (Chan-hom)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 09W (Chan-hom)

Tropical Cyclone 09W (Chan-hom) will be gradually strengthening, as it moves north of Pohnpei, Chuuk…and into the area northeast of Guam

TC 09W was located approximately 204 NM northeast of Pohnpei, and has been moving westward at a slow paced 4 mph during the past six hours.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image, with a looping version…and what several computer models are showing

Here’s a NASA satellite image taken today

Here’s a real time wind profile of the northwestern Pacific, with the central swirl this tropical cyclone Chan-hom

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows deepened central convection, along with formative cloud bands wrapping into the central level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates TC 09W is located in a moderate 20 knot wind shear environment…offset by an excellent outflow.

This strengthening TC will maintain a westward track through the next 72 hours, while moderately strong wind shear will persist. At the same time, favorable sea surface temperatures will allow the system to gradually intensify.

TD Chan-hom is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm and move to the west…then northwest.

The JTWC has this TC passing north of Fananu, and then strengthening to typhoon status on July 3…while remaining at sea east of Guam.

Meanwhile, as this tropical depression tracks westward, there’s the possibility that this system will overtake tropical disturbance 94W, the area of disturbed not far to the west.

Maximum sustained surface winds at the JTWC warning #1, was 30 knot sustained winds…with gusts to 40 knots.

Here’s the NWS Guam forecast track

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and 3-day error cone for retiring Tropical Cyclone 25P (Kujira)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and 3-day error cone for retiring Tropical Cyclone 25P

Tropical Cyclone 25P will become stronger over the next couple of days, before weakening as it pushes through the Solomon Islands..into the Coral Sea. The Solomon’s make up a nation that consists of hundreds of islands in the Southwest Pacific.

TC 25P was located approximately 1068 NM north-northwest of Noumea, New Caladonia, and has been moving westward at 8 mph during the past six hours.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a NASA satellite image of this system taken today

Here’s a real time wind profile of the southwestern Pacific, showing this tropical cyclone

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery deepened central convection, along with formative cloud bands wrapping into the central level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates 25P is located in a favorable environment with low wind shear…and excellent poleward outflow.

TC 25P is expected to peak at 55 knots within 36 hours. As land interaction occurs over the Solomon Islands, it will weaken the system.

Maximum sustained surface winds at the JTWC warning #1A, was 35 knot sustained winds…with gusts to 45 knots.

The depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm before crossing Malaita and moving south over Guadalcanal. JTWC forecasters expect TD 25P will move in a southerly direction after moving over Guadalcanal…and emerge into the Coral Sea on July 3rd.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulation

>>> Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance (circled in orange above), is being referred to Invest 94W…located approximately 167 NM west of Fananu

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area…along with a looping version

Here’s what the computer models are showing for a possible path

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts an elongated cloud signature, with broken convective cloud banding, broadly wrapping into the center.

Upper air analysis shows in an environment with low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear with fair diffluent aloft.

Additionally, warm sea surface tempertaures are conducive for development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09W (Chan-hom)  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 25P

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Jun
30
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulation

There are no active tropical cyclones in this area, or tropical disturbances that the NHC is investigating at this time. The 5-day outlook indicates that there are no new tropical cyclones expected.

Very strong upper level wind shear is blowing over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, and is making tropical cyclone formation exceptionally difficult. At the same time, the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, has been dominated by high pressure and dry, sinking air since April…which has made it difficult for thunderstorms to develop. This high wind shear, and low instability is forecast to persist in the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic for at least the next 5-days or potentially longer.

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Jun
29
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulation

There are no active tropical cyclones at this time, however, there are several areas of disturbed weather being investigated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) today, including:

According to a recent statement by the NWS office in Guam:Despite the uncertainties, some things are certain: A very wet pattern will persist across Micronesia at least through this week. Periods of scattered to numerous showers from Palau to Majuro are expected through Friday. Gusty west to southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough…currently all locations except for Majuro. Surf has reached hazardous levels at Kosrae along west-facing shores. We will likely see surf advisories at additional locations in Micronesia later this week.”

1.)  A tropical disturbance (circled in yellow above), is being referred to as Invest 94W, which remains active in the NW Pacific…located approximately 345 NM south-southeast of Guam

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with a looping version

Here’s what the GFS and NAVGEM models are showing for possible paths

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a weak, elongated low level circulation, with persistent convection sheared to the west.

Upper air analysis shows this disturbance is located in an area of 15-20 knot easterly wind shear…offset by excellent diffluence aloft.

Global weather models indicate possible weak development, as this disturbance tracks slowly eastward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential of the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

According to a statement by Western Pacific Weather: “One thing we know for sure, if we got a storm developing east of the Philippines it will draw in the moisture now dominating the region, pulling it across the Philippines in a torrent of moisture over the country. Visayas and Mindanao have already been seeing extensive rainfall the last few days, and if a storm does develop…it could bring an additional severe flood threat to the country.”

2.)  A second tropical disturbance (circled in orange above), is being referred to Invest 95W, remains active in the NW Pacific…located approximately 270 NM north-northeast of Pohnpei, FSM.

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with a looping version

Here’s what the GFS model is showing for a possible path

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a broad area of shallow and fragmented convection, wrapping into a slowly consolidating low level circulation center.

Upper air analysis shows a favorable environment, with low to moderate 5-15 knot wind shear with excellent diffluence aloft.

Global weather models indicate development of this system in the next 2-3 days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

3.)  Finally, a third tropical disturbance (circled in orange above), is being referred to Invest 90P, remains active in the SW Pacific…located approximately 905 NM east-northeast of Port Moresby, PNG.

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with a looping version

Here’s what the GFS and NAVGEMmodels are showing for possible paths

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring convection, partially offset westward from a well-defined low level circulation center.

Upper air analysis shows a marginally favorable environment, with moderate 15-20 knot northeasterly wind shear…which is offset by excellent poleward outflow.

Global weather models indicate weak development of this system in the next 2-3 days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential of the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Jun
29
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulation

There are no active tropical cyclones in this area, or tropical disturbances that the NHC is investigating at this time. The 5-day outlook indicates that there are no new tropical cyclones expected.

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Jun
26
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulation

A tropical disturbance (circled in yellow above), is being referred to Invest 95W, remains active in the NW Pacific…located approximately 212 NM south-southeast of Pohnpei

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with a looping version

Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for possible paths

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a large area of deep convection, associated with an ill-defined low level circulation center. In addition, there is weak fragmented convective cloud banding broadly wrapping into the center.

Upper air analysis shows low to moderate 5-15 knot wind shear with good diffluence aloft.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

~~~ Meanwhile, former Tropical Cyclone Kujira made landfall along the Vietnam coast two days ago. As a result of its slow movement, it dropped heavy rainfall on coastal areas of the country.  The storm moved over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Tonkin Tuesday, which allowed for a slight intensification…along with intense thunderstorms forming over Northern Vietnam. Local reports indicated flash flooding and landslides.

The resulting flood killed at least seven people according to AP news sources, with another four still missing…including a four year old boy.

Tropical Storm Kujira dumped nearly 8.00 inches of rain in the northern region of Vietnam over the past two days.

Tropical Storm Kujira weakened to a tropical depression late Wednesday afternoon with its center inland in an area located between Quang Ninh province and Hai Phong city, according to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting. It later weakened into a tropical low pressure system late Wednesday night.

This area of Vietnam is fairly rural, and due to the storm’s weak intensity…news and evacuation warnings were not stressed ahead of its landfall. There were however a few warnings issued by the Vietnam Meteorological Agency on Tuesday.

Around 8,000 vessels in the Gulf of Tonkin between Vietnam and Hainan, were told to return to port earlier this week to avoid being damaged by the storm.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.) A POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO…HAWAII. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS…LOW…10 PERCENT

Here’s a satellite image with this area marked with an X

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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