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Nov
25
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

There continues to be an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 97S in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 200 NM southwest of Diego Garcia – circled in orange above.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed low level circulation center, with a large area of persistent deep convection…sheared west of the center.

This system shows the low level center with formative cloud banding…wrapping into the center.

Upper level analysis reveals a marginal environment, with moderate to high 30-50 knot (35-58 mph) easterly wind shear…which is offset by a vigorous poleward outflow.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots (29-35 mph).

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours…has been upgraded to medium.

Here’s a JTWC satellite image of this area

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a second tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 93W in the western Pacific…located approximately 705 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines – circled in yellow above.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a broad and developing low level circulation center, with disorganized deep convection flaring over the system.

Upper level analysis reveals that the system is located equatorward of the subtropical ridge of high pressure…with moderately strong 20-25 knot (23-29 mph) wind shear.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots (12-17 mph).

The Central Philippine Islands should be on alert for tropical moisture moving ashore over the next several days. The residents in this area of the country could expect several days of heavy rain…and the threat of river level rise and landslides. The most intense rainfall will likely arrive Wednesday evening (local time) in Northern Mindanao and South Eastern Visayas. The heaviest totals will likely occur over Northern Mindanao, Leyte and Samar…where over 50mm in six hours could occur.  This should last through Thursday morning (again local time) before drifting east…bringing heavy rainfall across eastern Visayas into Thursday evening.

Here’s the GFS model’s upcoming forecast estimates for this potential rainfall event.

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours…is low.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Nov
25
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean
Sea or the Gulf of Mexico 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days 

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Nov
24
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 97S in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 290 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia – circled in yellow above.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts flaring and disorganized deep convection along the outer periphery…of a broad low level circulation center.

This system has yet to consolidate, as it remains broad and the convective organization remains poor.

Upper level analysis reveals a marginal environment, with moderate to high 20-30 knot (23-35 mph) wind shear…along with fair outflow.

Sea surface temperatures in the area are conducive for development, while sustained surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots (17-23 mph).

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours…remains low.

Here’s a JTWC satellite image of this area


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Nov
24
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean
Sea or the Gulf of Mexico 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days 

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Nov
21
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour Precipitation Accumulation

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest NE Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

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