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Feb
17
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

However, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 16 NM north of Mornington Island, Australia

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this area

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a slight weakening in deep convection, although radar imagery shows a well-defined low level circulation center…with cloud banding wrapping in from the north.

Surface observations from Mornington Island show east-southeasterly winds at 20-25 knots, gusting to 30-35 knots.

Environmental conditions are dynamically favorable for further development, with dual channel outflow, low to moderate wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global model guidance depicts a near stationary motion, with continued development over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria…over the next 1-2 days. However, some of the models show the disturbance moving inland and delaying further intensification.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

Meanwhile, there’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90P…which is located approximately 315 NM southeast of Papeete, Tahiti

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this disturbance….along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this disturbance.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a defined, partially exposed low level circulation center, with persistent deep convection over the eastern semi-circle.

The system is located along the leading edge of an upper level trough of low pressure, with strong diffluence…which is fueling the persistent convection. At the same time, there is strong 20-30 knot wind shear over this disturbance.

Global models indicate a southward track, and on an intensification trend…transitioning to a full sub-tropical cyclone within 1-2 days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
16
2017

Hazard Highlights

Tropical Cyclone Dineo Impacts Mozambique

HH021617

PDC Disaster Alert, centered on Mozambique, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Rainfall Accumulation (1 Day) layers.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo made landfall near the city of Massinga, Mozambique, on February 15, bringing heavy rains and high winds up to 130 kilometers per hour (80 miles per hour) (ECHO Daily Flash, 16FEB17). Although Dineo is forecast to weaken as it tracks inland, heavy rain and high winds are possible for parts of Mozambique, Botswana, and Namibia through the end of the week (ReliefWeb/South African Weather Service).

As of February 16, seven fatalities have been reported by Mozambique’s disaster center. According to reports, an estimated 130,000 people have been affected and 20,000 homes were destroyed (Reuters).

RVA Country Profile: Mozambique

HH021617

This Week in Hazards

  • Wildfires burning across New Zealand’s South Island have prompted the evacuation of several hundred people in Christchurch (ECHO Daily Flash, 15FEB17, Christchurch City Council). As of February 15, a State of Local Emergency has been declared for Christchurch city and the Selwyn district (NZ Civil Defence). For more information on the wildfires, visit the Christchurch Civil Defense Emergency Management (CDEM) Facebook page.

Current Hazard Warnings

Floods: United States (Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming), Peru, Argentina, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Botswana (Eastern Region), South Africa (Northeastern Region), Namibia (Eastern Region), Afghanistan, Pakistan (Northwestern Region), Tajikistan (Southwestern Region), Uzbekistan (Southern Region), Turkmenistan (Eastern Region), Australia (Western Australia)

Winter Storm: United States (New Hampshire), Canada (Nunavut, Eastern Region)

Avalanche: United States (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana)

Wildfire: Chile, New Zealand (Christchurch)

High Wind: United States (Hawaii)

Drought: Sri Lanka, Madagascar, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, United States (California, Southern Region, Northeastern Region)

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible of Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
16
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

However, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90P…which is located approximately 105 NM north-northeast of Papeete, Tahiti

Here’s a Navy satellite image of this disturbance….along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation center with disorganized deep convection. At the same time, there’s fragmented cloud banding over the northern semi-circle, although with no evidence of a defined center…or any banding over the southern part of this disturbance.

Surface observations in the area indicate generally light winds…although with stronger winds associated with the convective bands to the north.

Global models indicate a southward track, and intensification within the next 2-3 days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

Meanwhile, there’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 20 NM north-northeast of Mornington Island, Australia

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this area

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery reveals deep convection decreasing, although radar imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center…with cloud banding wrapping into a well defined center.

Satellite imagery also shows a weak eye feature, with surface winds from the southeast at 15-20 knots…gusting to 25-30 knots. The JTWC notes that if this system remains over water, environmental conditions are dynamically favorable for further development.

Global model guidance depict a near stationary motion and slow development, as the system tracks along the southern Gulf of Carpenteria…over the next 2-days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
15
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo) remains active…located about 235 NM west-southwest of Europa Island

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, PDC Active Hazards and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, PDC Active Hazards and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo) has attained 70 knots…and will be making landfall over eastern Mozambique soon

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 05S

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict a well defined spiral system, with deep convective cloud banding…and a newly formed central eye.

TC 05S remains in a favorable environment supporting near radial outflow, low wind shear aloft…and still very warm sea water temperatures.

TC Dineo has likely reached its peak intensity, with no further strengthening expected, as the storm nears the coast, and land interaction occurs…disrupting the low level wind field during the next 6-hours.

TC 05S is moving on a west-southwestward track, and with the system moving inland, full dissipation will occur over land.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #5 were 70 knots with gusts of 85 knots.

According to various South African news sources: 

South African Weather Service chief forecaster Kevin Rae said that Dineo‚ classified for now as a Severe Tropical Storm‚ would gather strength as it reached the coast of Mozambique late on Wednesday evening‚ near Massinga‚ north of Inhambane.

“Dineo is also quite likely to undergo a final surge of intensification‚ just before arriving over land and there is a good chance that it will reach Tropical Cyclone status‚” he said in a weather update.

The storm was positioned in the Mozambique Channel in the early hours of Wednesday moving at about 14km/h.

“Given that Dineo is likely to reach Tropical Cyclone intensity during today‚ the projected maximum strength of surface winds associated with the system will be 70 knots‚ or about 130km/h. Whilst this wind strength is somewhat weaker than the earlier estimate of 160 to 170km/h‚ this is still a formidable storm system which has the potential to cause much damage to coastal and inland infrastructure‚” said Rae.

Communities in southern Mozambique will be vulnerable to torrential rain and flooding.

Sea conditions along the southern Mozambican coast will be very rough – of the order of six to eight metres. There is an additional threat of a marine storm surge along the coastline north of Xai-Xai.

He warned that southern Mozambique would experience “very heavy rainfall‚ most likely in the region of 100 to 200mm per day‚ or even more”.

South Africa will experience heavy rainfall over the northern lowveld and adjacent escarpment regions of Limpopo on Thursday evening.

Rae said the greatest impact was likely overnight on Thursday when “heavy rain can be expected over the entire eastern half of Limpopo‚ including the Kruger National Park‚ where 100 to 200mm of rain could occur per day.”

Dineo was expected to dissipate in the region of Musina and Beit Bridge on Friday and drift towards Botswana by Saturday.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
14
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo) remains active…located about 78 NM west of Europa Island

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, PDC Active Hazards and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, PDC Active Hazards and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo) remains active in the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar…forecast to attain 75 knots before making landfall over eastern Mozambique

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 05S / Radar image of this storm

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict a consolidating tightly wound spiral system, with relatively shallow cloud banding…on the western and northern peripheries. These images show an eye feature struggling to form.

TC 05S is in a very favorable environment with upper levels supporting dual channel outflow, and low wind shear. At the same time, sea surface temperatures are extremely warm.

TC Dineo will have a short window to intensify over the next 24 hours, before it makes landfall…reaching a peak intensity of 75 knots.

TC 05S is moving on a southwestward track, with landfall expected within 30 hours. As the system moves inland, it will fully dissipate within 72 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots.

According to various South African news sources: The South African Weather Service has issued an update on the Tropical Storm Dineo, saying it is expected to reach Cyclone status early on Wednesday, 15 February. (local time)

The Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) La Reunion has updated the expected evolution of Dineo, which is now expected to reach Tropical Cyclone stage winds of up to 118-165km/h.

Thereafter, the SA Weather Service says, a “further intensification is expected and the storm will reach the Intense Tropical Cyclone stage with winds of up to 166-212 km/h around midday on Wednesday, before making landfall at midnight near Inhambane in southern Mozambique”.

South Africa will start to experience the rain from this tropical system on Thursday over the Lowveld, spreading westwards by Friday (local time).

Over South Africa on Tuesday, scattered thundershowers are expected to develop mainly this afternoon over the central, south-eastern and eastern parts with heavier showers possible over the south-eastern parts of Mpumalanga and northern parts of KwaZulu-Natal.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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