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Oct
16
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

There’s a tropical disturbance that has a low chance of developing, and is expected to turn north and then northeast…with Bermuda a possible target

This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 92L, here’s a satellite image, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing.

This system brought heavy rain and flooding to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday.

Invest 92L could develop into a tropical depression or storm early this week. If this system does develop into a tropical storm, it would receive the name Philippe.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC):

Broad low pressure centered about 500 miles southwest of Bermuda continues to produce an elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms which extends from Puerto Rico northward over the western Atlantic Ocean.

The low’s circulation is not well defined, and significant tropical development appears unlikely during the next day or so due to strong upper-level winds.

The disturbance is forecast to move generally northeastward, merging with a frontal system over the western Atlantic by Tuesday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Oct
16
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Lan) is located about 239 NM north-northwest of Koror, Palau

Tropical Storm 25W (Lan) is strengthening over the Philippine Sea…and will reach typhoon strength with time

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite images show formative cloud bands wrapping in from the southern and eastern quadrants, which have deepened…although slightly displaced eastward of the center.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is in an area of moderate 15-25 knot wind shear, which is mostly offset by good radial outflow. In addition, along track sea surface temperatures remain conducive for development.

TS 25W will track just north of westward through the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the system is expected to turn more northward, while favorable environmental conditions will persist, and allow for steady intensification. By 72 hours, TS 25W is expected to strengthen to a moderate typhoon with 90 knot winds.

After 72 hours, TS Lan will continue its northward progression, then after 96 hours, it will will turn north-northeast. Given the warm sea surface temperatures, and favorable upper level conditions…a period of rapid intensification is possible, reaching 110 knots within 120 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #6 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_2d0.png

There are two tropical disturbances noted in the northeast Pacific Ocean

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located about a thousand miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become significantly less organized since this morning due to very strong upper-level winds. In addition, the low has moved over colder waters, and development of this system is becoming less likely while it moves northwestward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

2.) Finally, another low pressure area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms while moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Development of this system is not expected due to increasing upper-level winds and proximity of dry air.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 25W (Lan)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Oct
15
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Post-Tropical Cyclone 17L (Ophelia) is located about 220 mile southwest of Mizen Head, Ireland – Last Advisory

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/ir4-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia is losing its tropical characterover the far eastern Atlantic…as a Category 1 system

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a graphic showing where Ophelia is, along with other current information

On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will approach Ireland Monday morning. However, strong winds and rains should begin earlier.

Ophelia has become the 10th consecutive storm to grow to hurricane strength…a streak of intense systems that have tied a record last set in the late 1800’s.

It comes in a season that has already produced five major hurricanes (now six), including three Category 5 storms…and 15 named storms.

Maximum sustained winds are 85 mph

According to the NHC:

Hurricane Ophelia  Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

Within just the past six hours, the last bit of deep convection near Ophelia’s center has been sheared off well to the north, and the cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure. Ophelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an attached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a cold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal. The powerful cyclone continues to produce hurricane-force winds, with recent ASCAT data showing wind vectors as high as 70 kt to the east of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 75 kt to account for undersampling. The occluded low is forecast to gradually fill and weaken during the next couple of days, and it is likely to dissipate near the western coast of Norway by 48 hours. Despite the expected weakening, the post-tropical cyclone is still likely to bring hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, to portions of western Ireland on Monday.

Ophelia has accelerated and retrograded slightly during the past 6-12 hours during the occlusion process, and the long-term motion estimate is northward, or 010/38 kt. Now that occlusion is complete, the post-tropical cyclone should resume a north- northeastward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, within the next 12 hours. That heading should continue for the ensuing day or two, bringing the center of the cyclone near the western coast of Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night. The dynamical track models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC forecast is not too different from the previous one.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center now that Ophelia has become post-tropical. Local forecasts, warnings, and other communications regarding the post-tropical cyclone that are pertinent to Ireland and the United Kingdom will continue to be available from Met Eireann and the UK Met Office.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom Monday and Monday night. Strong winds and heavy rain are likely in portions of these areas, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of the NHC forecast cone.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Post-Tropical Cyclone 17L (Ophelia) Last Advisory

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.) A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Puerto Rico and Bermuda is associated with a broad area of low pressure, which is centered about 150 miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Any development of this low while it moves generally northward over the western Atlantic during the next day or so is expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds, and the system is likely to merge with a front and become extratropical in a couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Oct
14
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Ophelia) is located about 635 miles east-northeast of the Azores

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/ir4-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Hurricane Ophelia remains active over the far eastern Atlantic…as a Category 1 system

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a graphic showing where Ophelia is, along with other current information

On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will approach Ireland tomorrow morning. However, strong winds and rains should begin earlier.

Ophelia has become the 10th consecutive storm to grow to hurricane strength…a streak of intense systems that have tied a record last set in the late 1800’s.

It comes in a season that has already produced five major hurricanes (now six), including three Category 5 storms…and 15 named storms.

Maximum sustained winds are 90 mph

According to the NHC:

Hurricane Ophelia  Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

After displaying a distinct eye overnight, recent satellite imagery indicate that the cloud pattern of Ophelia has begun to deteriorate and the eye is no longer apparent. The deep convection is also weakening fast and consequently, Dvorak numbers have begun to decrease while analysts are trying to lower them as much as the technique allows. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 80 kt. Given the cold waters of about 20 deg C, and the strong shear, Ophelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 33 kt, well embedded within the fast flow ahead of a large trough. This pattern is expected to persist, so no significant change in track is anticipated before dissipation. Guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement and most of the models bring a weakened post-tropical Ophelia to the southern coast of Ireland Monday morning (AST or Miami time). Thereafter, the cyclone will continue over northern Great Britain until dissipation.

Strong winds and rains associated with Post-Tropical Ophelia will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 17L (Ophelia)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.) The broad area of low pressure NHC has been tracking for a few days is now centered a little more than 100 miles north of Puerto Rico. The low is producing numerous showers and a few squalls mainly to the east of the center. Further development of this system, if any, will likely ocurr while the low and its associated activity move toward the northwest and north during the next two to three days. After that time, this system is expected to merge with a cold front.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Oct
13
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Ophelia) is located about 200 miles south of the Azores

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/imagery/ir0-lalo.gif

Hurricane Ophelia remains active over the far eastern Atlantic…as a Category 3 system

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a graphic showing where Ophelia is, along with other current information

Hurricane Ophelia is not a threat to the United States, although potentially brushing parts of the Azores this weekend.

Only 15 hurricanes have passed within 200 nautical miles of the Azores since 1851, according to NOAA’s historical hurricane database.

Ophelia may become a dangerous post-tropical system next week…near the Irish Coast.

While the storm poses no threat to land at the moment, it has become the 10th consecutive storm to grow to hurricane strength…a streak of intense systems that have tied a record last set in the late 1800’s.

It comes in a season that has already produced five major hurricanes, including three Category 5 storms…and 15 named storms.

Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph

According to the NHC:

Hurricane Ophelia  Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

During the past few hours, Ophelia’s satellite presentation has improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt, making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner. Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength. Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 17L (Ophelia)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.) Radar and surface observations from the eastern Caribbean indicate that a broad area of low pressure is gradually approaching the Leeward Islands. This low is accompanied by showers and squalls mainly to the east of the center, and this activity is expected to spread westward over the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands today and Sunday. Upper-level winds are expected to be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, but the environment could turn favorable for some development early next week when the system begins to move northward and then recurves over the west-central Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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