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Oct
21
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Storm 02C (Ana) remains active in the north central Pacificlocated approximately 420 miles west of Lihue, Hawaii – Tropical Storm

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, with 3 hour precipitation accumulation for Tropical Cyclone 02C(Ana)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, with 3 hour precipitation accumulation for Tropical Cyclone 02C(Ana)

Tropical storm 02C (Ana) is moving away from the Hawaiian Islands…  

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) is locating this storm about 420 miles west of Lihue, Hawaii.

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

02C (Ana) … Tropical Storm

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii is issuing advisories on tropical storm Ana, located 420 miles west of Lihue, Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCPCP5 and WMO header WTPA35 PHFO.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday morning.

NOAA textual forecast
NOAA graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7S 87.3E, 
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Oct
21
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico

Medium chance of storm development over the next 2 days

Medium chance of storm development over the next 2 days

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche has become better
defined. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms are
currently not well organized, this system has the potential to
become a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while it moves
slowly eastward toward the western Yucatan Peninsula. Later in the
week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a
frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern
Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Interests
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of the disturbance

Low chance of storm development over the next 2 days

Low chance of storm development over the next 2 days

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Azores. This system
is producing winds of gale-force and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves
slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Thursday
and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of the disturbance

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche has become better
defined. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms are
currently not well organized, this system has the potential to
become a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while it moves
slowly eastward toward the western Yucatan Peninsula.  Later in the
week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a
frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern
Caribbean Sea.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Interests
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Azores. This system
is producing winds of gale-force and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves
slowly westward.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Thursday
and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Azores. This system
is producing winds of gale-force and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves
slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Thursday
and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche has become better
defined. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms are
currently not well organized, this system has the potential to
become a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while it moves
slowly eastward toward the western Yucatan Peninsula. Later in the
week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a
frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern
Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Interests
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Oct
20
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Storm 02C (Ana) remains active in the north central Pacificlocated approximately 270 miles west southwest of Lihue, Hawaii – Tropical Storm

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, with 3 hour precipitation accumulation for Tropical Cyclone 02C (Ana)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, with 3 hour precipitation accumulation for Tropical Cyclone 02C (Ana)

Tropical storm 02C (Ana) is moving away from the Hawaiian Islands…  

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) is locating this storm about 270 miles west southwest of Lihue, Hawaii.

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing

Low chance of storm development over the next 48 hours

Low chance of storm development over the next 48 hours

AN AREA OF DISTURBANCE IS OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS

TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER MODEL
FIELDS TO NOT DEPICT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

02C (Ana) … Tropical Storm

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii is issuing advisories on tropical storm Ana, located 270 miles west southwest of Lihue, Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCPCP5 and WMO header WTPA35 PHFO.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday morning.

NOAA textual forecast
NOAA graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.3S 87.9E, 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7S 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM WEST-NORTHWEST 
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 201553Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, POSITIVE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER MODEL 
FIELDS TO NOT DEPICT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Oct
20
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico

Medium chance of storm development over the next 2 days

Medium chance of storm development over the next 2 days

An area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This system has some potential to become a tropical cyclone during
the next two to three days while it moves slowly eastward to
east-northeastward, before it interacts and possibly merges with a
frontal system towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of the disturbance

Low chance of storm development over the next 48 hours

Low chance of storm development over the next 48 hours

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of the disturbance

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This system has some potential to become a tropical cyclone during
the next two to three days while it moves slowly eastward to
east-northeastward, before it interacts and possibly merges with a
frontal system towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent.

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

An area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This system has some potential to become a tropical cyclone during
the next two to three days while it moves slowly eastward to
east-northeastward, before it interacts and possibly merges with a
frontal system towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Oct
18
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 02C (Ana) remains active in the north central Pacificlocated approximately 195 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii – Hurricane Category 1

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, with 3 hour precipitation accumulation for Tropical Cyclone 02C (Ana)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, with 3 hour precipitation accumulation for Tropical Cyclone 02C (Ana)

Hurricane 02C (Ana) is passing by the Hawaiian Islands… Ana is a category 1 hurricane 

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) is locating this storm about 195 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

Tropical storm Trudy has made landfall on the Mexican coast…approximately 100 miles east of Acapulco

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with the latest computer model outlooks.

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Storm Trudy, located less of a hundred miles east of
Acapulco.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA…BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY.

RAINFALL…TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES…

ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF…SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO…LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

Hurricane 02C (Ana) … Category 1

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii is issuing advisories on tropical storm Ana, located 195 miles south of Honolulu Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCPCP5 and WMO header WTPA35 PHFO.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday morning.

NOAA textual forecast
NOAA graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1S 64.6E, 
APPROXIMATELY 485 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED 
INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. AN 180025Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE 
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT 
WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
MODERATE 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. 
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE 
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

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