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Jun
18
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing

 http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hicbsat_None_anim.gif

Periods of heavy rainfall are likely across coastal Texas this week, which could cause flooding issues.

This rainfall is expected to linger over eastern Texas into mid-week…while interacting with widespread tropical moisture.

According to the NHC, Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler Radar data indicate that a surface trough associated with an upper-level low pressure system, has moved onto the coast of Texas.

This system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms and strong gusty winds over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas are likely to continue during the next few days.

Rain amounts of 3-5 inches are expected through Wednesday near and inland from the Texas coast. Some locations could see heavier totals of 5-10 inches. More rain is possible Thursday depending how this weather pattern develops.

Here’s the looping radar images for the Houston, Corpus Christi areas of Texas…and for Lake Charles, LA

Here’s the NWS 7-day rainfall outlook graphic

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
18
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Post-Tropical Cyclone 04E (Carlotta) is located about 95 miles west of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico

 

 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis-swir_04E_201806190336.jpg

Tropical Depression 04E (Carlotta) remains modestly active…near the Mexican coast

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical depression

Here’s a near time wind profile of Carlotta

According to the NHC, A microwave image indicated that a small mid-level circulation remained, but Carlotta’s low-level circulation was either very small and indistinct, or it was located along the coast of Mexico. For this, the final advisory, it is assumed that the low-level center is beneath the remnant mid-level circulation. The upper-level circulation noted in hi-res GOES-16 visible imagery, has continued to move southwestward and decouple from the rest of the circulation, and what little convection that does exist is rather amorphous-looking and disorganized.

Based on the disheveled appearance of the system, Carlotta is considered to be a remnant low pressure system with 20 knot winds. The initial motion estimate is 315 degrees/03 knots. Steering currents are weak and the shallow nature of the tiny cyclone should prevent Carlotta’s remnant circulation from moving inland over the high mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. As a result, the system is forecast to drift northwestward and skirt the coast of Mexico for the next 12-24 hours until dissipation or absorption into the monsoon trough occurs some time on Tuesday.

Although there could be some intermittent short-lived bursts of convection, proximity to land, modest northerly wind shear, and dry mid-level air should prevent the remnant low from regenerating into a tropical cyclone. Although Carlotta is no longer a tropical cyclone, an abundance of tropical moisture flowing inland from the Pacific is expected to produce heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima for the next couple of days.  This is the last advisory on Carlotta issued by the National Hurricane Center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero, Michoacan and Colima coasts, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Carlotta) Last Advisory

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days 

Western North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

© 2015-2018 Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) – All rights reserved.  Commercial use is permitted only with explicit approval of PDC

Jun
17
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Carlotta) is located about 55 miles south of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and the TAOS model for Tropical Cyclone 04E (Carlotta)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis-swir_04E_201806180236.jpg

Tropical Depression 04E (Carlotta) remains active…near the Mexican coast

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical depression

Here’s a near time wind profile of Carlotta

According to the NHC, Visible satellite imagery indicates that Carlotta has maintained a small but robust low-level circulation, with strong convection bursting over and south of the well-defined center. The recent development of deep convection has likely amplified the vertical circulation, resulting in the forward motion being slightly retarded by the north-northwesterly upper-level winds. However, a stout ridge to the north of the small cyclone should keep the system moving in a general west-northwestward direction just offshore the coast of Mexico for the next day or so.

Pulsing convection with tops to near -80C has been occurring since the previous advisory. However, wind shear of around 15 knots, along with drier mid-level air coming in off of mainland Mexico are expected to steadily weaken the system, resulting in degeneration into a remnant low on Monday. The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico…could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Rainfall: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero, Michoacan and Colima coasts, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible.

These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast.

SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96W active in the South China Sea…located approximately 164 NM south of Hong Kong

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center, with disorganized flaring convection displaced to the south.

The system is located in a marginally favorable environment, with low to moderate wind shear, and broad diffluence aloft.

Most of the models track the system northward towards mainland China in the next 24-36 hours…with weak development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Carlotta)

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days 

Western North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

© 2015-2018 Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) – All rights reserved.  Commercial use is permitted only with explicit approval of PDC

Jun
17
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing

 http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hicbsat_None_anim.gif

A surface trough is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the west-central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Strong gusty winds to near 40 mph are accompanying some of the stronger thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions do not support significant development. However, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to continue across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. This activity will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts later tonight and on Monday.

Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3″ are expected with some locations in coastal Texas possibly receiving more than 3″ through Tuesday.

A wet pattern may move across the southern Plains…into much of next week.

Rainfall rates of greater than 3″ per hour are possible…especially later today into Monday.

Here’s the looping radar images for the Houston, Corpus Christi areas of Texas…and for Lake Charles, LA

Here’s the NWS 7-day rainfall outlook graphic

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
16
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Carlotta) is located about 40 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Gaemi) is located about 64 miles east-northeast of Kadena AB – Final Warning

   https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis-swir_04E_201806162251.jpg

Tropical Storm 04E (Carlotta) remains active…moving inland over the Mexican coast soon

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical storm

Here’s a near time wind profile of Carlotta

According to the NHC, Satellite imagery and radar images from Acapulco Mexico suggest that there continues to be little change in the organization of the storm. Carlotta continues to be affected by some northerly shear associated with an upper-level low over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and no important changes in intensity are anticipated prior to landfall.

Carlotta has a small circulation that, after the center crosses the coast, is likely to weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico and dissipate in a day or so. Animation of the radar images and high-resolution GOES16 visible imagery suggest that the center is inching northward, and the initial motion estimate is 360/1 knot. Carlotta remains in an environment of weak steering currents between mid-level high pressure systems.

The track forecast reasoning is that the tropical cyclone will move very slowly northward to north-northwestward, between the two highs. All of the global models show Carlotta moving inland soon. Regardless of whether the center moves inland, the primary expected hazards from Carlotta continue to be heavy rainfall and the associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero and southwestern Oaxaca coasts, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area later today and continue through tomorrow.

SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and the TAOS model for now retired Tropical Cyclone 08W (Gaemi)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/08W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Gaemi) is dissipating…south of the Japanese Islands – Final Warning

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical storm.

According to the JTWC,satellite imagery shows the cyclone is undergoing extra-tropical transition, with deep convection to the northeast of the broad low level circulation center.

TS 08W (Gaemi) is located under an upper level trough, with strong wind shear of near 40 knots.

This system will maintain a northeastward track…with the center remaining offshore from land

Maximum sustained surface winds as of the JTWC Warning #9 were estimated at 35 knots…with gusts to 45

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Carlotta)

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Gaemi) Final Warning

JTWC texual advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

© 2015-2018 Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) – All rights reserved.  Commercial use is permitted only with explicit approval of PDC

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