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Oct
23
2014

Hazard Highlights

Relentless Rain in Central America; New MERS Cluster in Saudi Arabia

Remnants of Cyclone May Worsen Flood Conditions in Central America

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PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards showing Rainfall Accumulation (7 Day) and Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions layers.

Several parts of Central America have been experiencing above-average rainfall over the past four weeks, and forecasts show the trend continuing as the dissipating Tropical Depression Nine moves eastward into the Yucatan Channel (CPC). Seasonal rainfall surpluses have been recorded across Central America, and over the past week, heavy rains triggered floods in departments of Guatemala, San Pedro Sula in western Honduras, and north-central Nicaragua. Reports indicate that as of October 20, floods and landslides had claimed more than 30 lives and affected over 100,000 people. (ECHO Daily Flash 21 October 2014)

According to the NHC’s last public advisory for Tropical Depression Nine on October 22 (2200 CDT), the system is expected to weaken as it tracks inland over the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, but total rainfall accumulations of 5-10 inches (maximum 15 inches) are expected, increasing the risk of flash flooding  (NHC Advisory #5).

MERS Cluster Prompts Improved Hospital Measures

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PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards and Population Density (LANDSCAN) layers.

Health officials in Saudi Arabia confirmed nine new cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in the city of Taif (near Mecca) over the past two weeks, and warned that more cases may be on the way (MOH, CIDRAP). In addition to implementing new infection control measures in two local hospitals, the Ministry of Health is expanding its collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture, as exposure to camels is believed to be the cause of the recent cases. Studies indicate that camels play an important role in the transmission of MERS to humans (ECDC). As of October 21, 906 confirmed cases of MERS have been reported worldwide, including 361 deaths (ECDC).

Current Hazard Warnings

Drought: United States (Southwest, Pacific), Bolivia

Biomedical: West Africa

Wildfire: United States (Oregon, California)

Flood: Czech Republic (Southwest), Central America (Pacific Basin), Sudan (South)

Landslide: Central America (Pacific Basin)

Severe Weather: Austria

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the Global Hazards Atlas.

Oct
23
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Storm 02C (Ana) remains active in the north central Pacificlocated approximately 290 miles northwest of French Frigate Shoals – Tropical Storm

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Storm Ana in the Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Storm Ana in the Pacific

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, and an area of tropical disturbance in the Eastern Pacific with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, and an area of tropical disturbance in the Eastern Pacific with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

Here’s a satellite image of this area

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, and an area of tropical disturbance in the Indian Ocean with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, and an area of tropical disturbance in the Indian Ocean with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-
southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are not expected to be favorable for tropical cyclone formation
during the next couple of days. However, these conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development of this system
after that time while the low drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Satellite Image of this area

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

Tropical Storm 02C (Ana)

NOAA textual forecast
NOAA graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 68.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 62.9E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES. A 231348Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DISORGANIZATION IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. NAVGEM AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A BROAD TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Oct
23
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, and the remnants of 09L in the Gulf of Mexico.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, and the remnants of 09L in the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of the area

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine over the southern Yucatan
peninsula are expected to move eastward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea by late Friday. This system has a small chance of
regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in two
or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Oct
22
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Storm 02C (Ana) remains active in the north central Pacificlocated approximately 530 miles west of Lihue, Hawaii – Tropical Storm

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Storm Ana in the Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Storm Ana in the Pacific

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite Image of this area

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

Tropical Storm 02C (Ana)

NOAA textual forecast
NOAA graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea

Oct
22
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Nine is active in the Gulf of Mexico…located approximately 110 miles west-southwest of Campeche, Mexico

nine_102214

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers…for Tropical Depression Nine in the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of the area

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour rain fall accumulations, Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Depression Nine in the Gulf of Mexico, with an area of tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next 24 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Depression Nine in the Gulf of Mexico, with an area of tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next 24 hours.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of the disturbance

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large non-tropical low, located over the northeastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles south of the western Azores, continues to
produce disorganized showers. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become less conducive for development by Thursday while the low
meanders. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression 9L (Nine) 

NOAA textual forecast
NOAA graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

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