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Special Weather Summary

Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones Jova, Irwin...and tropical disturbance 99E

The eastern north Pacific continues to be very active at the moment, with a major hurricane, a weakening tropical storm, and an area under investigation, with a moderate 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone...all happening within a fairly small area of the ocean offshore from Mexico.

Major hurricane Jova: Jova is being rated as a strong category 3 hurricane, forecast to become a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 135 mph within 12 hours. This very dangerous hurricane is located about 180 miles offshore from mainland Mexico...southwest of Manzanillo. There may be some slight weakening before Jova strikes the southwest coast, bring battering surf, storm surge, flooding rainfall, and very strong damaging winds.

NHC graphical track map

NOAA satellite image of Jova

UW-CIMSS TCTRAK /Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery - showing latitude, longitude and wind speed in knots as it approaches the Mexican coast

Weather Underground computer forecast models for Jova

Tropical storm Irwin: Irwin continues to be the farthest west of these three tropical systems, near 15N and 117W. The current sustained winds near the center are 40 mph. The NHC forecast has this tropical cyclone dropping down into the less dangerous tropical depression category. Rather than heading towards the west or north, as if often the case, this storm continues to head towards the east, as it moves towards mainland Mexico. The latest advisory has the position 715 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

NHC graphical track map

NOAA satellite image of Irwin

UW-CIMSS TCTRAK /Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery – showing latitude, longitude and wind speed in knots

Weather Underground computer forecast models for Irwin

Invest 99E:  This tropical disturbance remains active about 300 miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next two days. If this disturbance were to strengthen into a tropical depression, it would be given the number 12E, and if further development took place...given the name Kenneth.

NHC placement of this disturbance, orange circled area

NOAA satellite image of 99E

Weather Underground computer forecast models for 99E

Hawaii Weather Overview


EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT: 
We've just come through a perfectly good weekend, with the trade winds blowing, and a fairly typical array of windward biased showers at times.  The only other feature that stood out was the rather long lasting high cirrus clouds. The small craft wind advisory for those windiest coastal and channel waters around Maui County and the Big Island...are still active for the moment.

It appears that we will start to push into a lighter trade wind flow starting tomorrow. This will likely end the small craft wind advisories, with gradually lighter winds continuing through the work week.  The trade winds won't stop altogether, so that showers will be carried into our windward sides at times. Otherwise, there shouldn't be all that much difference in our local weather conditions through Friday. 

The latest forecast shows that a cold front may drop down into the state later Friday into Saturday morning. It's interesting that the GFS model shows this clearly happening, with a second cold front approaching the state early next week. In contrast, the Navy's NOGAPS forecast model doesn't show this first cold front at all, or at least doesn't bring it into the state. It's still a bit early in the week, so that there may be some additional fine tuning as we move through the next several days. It is getting to be that time of the year when we would normally look for more frequent cold fronts to begin arriving...especially as we have a La Nina influence in the Pacific. Typically, La Nina can provide somewhat more than the normal amount of precipitation during our late autumn through spring seasons.

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT MON October 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED INLAND NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS DEFINED. SINCE THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER WATER...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE LAST MENTION OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – AM – Pacific / Indian Oceans


Tropical cyclone 10E (Jova)  is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 220 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Strengthening major hurricane…125 mph sustained winds)

Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 745 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Tropical storm…40 mph sustained winds)

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 10E (Jova)

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
PDC Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Irwin)  

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
PDC Global Hazards Atlas

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11AM PDT MON OCTOBER 10, 2011

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 745 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Latest eastern Pacific IR satellite image

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

800 AM HST MON OCTOBER 10 2011

No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday morning

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – PM – Pacific / Indian Oceans


Tropical cyclone 10E (Jova)  is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 490 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Strengthening tropical storm…65 mph sustained winds)

Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 960 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Strengthening hurricane…90 mph sustained winds)

 

Hawaii Weather Overview


EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT: 
The trade winds are being driven by a moderately strong high pressure system far to the northeast of the islands. This high is located well over half way towards the California coast, although it has an associated ridge of high pressure extending west-southwest back to a point around 30 degrees north latitude...to the north of our islands. These moderately strong trade winds will hold steady through the weekend, into the first several days of the new week ahead. There's a chance that some change in our wind speeds and directions could occur beginning during the second half of next week.

Showers will continue to be drawn over the windward sides of the islands, as showery clouds get carried our way on the trade wind flow. We've seen a few showers being carried all the way over into the leeward sides on the smaller islands. The clouds upstream of the islands look fairly normal at this time, so there doesn't appear to be anything unusual on tap in terms of our precipitation through the next 5-6 days. Towards the second half of the upcoming new work week, around next Thursday or Friday, the models are suggesting that we may see some changes coming our way...stay tuned.

 

Special Weather Summary

Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones Jova and Irwin

The eastern north Pacific continues to be very active at the moment, with a hurricane, a tropical storm, and an area under investigation, with a moderate 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone...all happening within a fairly small area of the ocean.

Hurricane Irwin: Irwin is the farthest west of these three tropical systems, near 14N and 122W. The current sustained winds near the center are 92 mph, with  gusts to 115 mph. The NHC forecast has this tropical cyclone remaining at the hurricane level through the middle of the new week ahead. Rather than heading towards the west or north, as if often the case, this hurricane veers around towards the east, as it moves towards mainland Mexico, well to the south of the southern tip of Baja, California.

NHC graphical track map

NOAA satellite image of Irwin

UW-CIMSS TCTRAK /Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery - showing latitude, longitude and wind speed in knots

Weather Underground computer forecast models for Irwin

Tropical Storm Jova: Jova is involved in a somewhat unfavorable environment for strengthening, although this is expected to change later Saturday, at which point a rapid intensification could take place. The sustained winds at the time of this writing were still in the tropical storm category, blowing 65 mph, with gusts to near 75 mph. The NHC forecast brings Jova to a hurricane by late Saturday morning. This storm is forecast to become a major hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast this coming Monday night.

NHC graphical track map

NOAA satellite image of Jova

UW-CIMSS TCTRAK / /Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery - showing latitude, longitude and wind speed in knots

Weather Underground computer forecast models for Jova

Invest 99E:  This tropical disturbance has formed a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next two days. If this disturbance were to strengthen into a tropical depression, it would be given the number 12E, and if further development took place...given the name Kenneth.

NHC placement of this disturbance, orange circled area

NOAA satellite image of 99E

Weather Underground computer forecast models for 99E

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – AM – Pacific / Indian Oceans


Tropical cyclone 10E (Jova)  is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 535 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Strengthening tropical storm…60 mph sustained winds)

Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 925 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Strengthening hurricane…85 mph sustained winds)

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 10E (Jova)

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
PDC Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Irwin)  

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
PDC Global Hazards Atlas

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11AM PDT FRI OCTOBER 7, 2011

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 535 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND ON HURRICANE IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Latest eastern Pacific IR satellite image

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

800 AM HST FRI OCTOBER 7 2011

No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday morning

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 17L (Philippe) is active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 575 miles east-southeast of Bermuda (Hurricane...sustained winds of 85 mph)

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT FRI October 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map

NOAA Satellite image

Global Hazards Atlas

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – PM – Pacific / Indian Oceans


Tropical cyclone 10E (Jova)  is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 490 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Tropical storm…45 mph sustained winds)

Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 885 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Strengthening tropical storm…58 mph sustained winds)

 

Page 413 of 415

PDC Senior Weather Specialist

Glenn James has been working with PDC for two decades as lead meteorologist, bringing together the most accurate, up-to-date tropical cyclone developments from around the world into a single, one-stop weather page. Glenn is a meteorologist working in the area of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans and has degrees in Physical Geography/Meteorology from Sonoma State University in northern California. He taught at the University of Hawaii, Maui campus for ten years, before joining the Pacific Disaster Center as the Senior Weather Specialist in 1996. He was awarded the Dr. Arthur N.L. Chiu Award (for Hurricane Preparedness) by the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency in 2015.

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Myanmar (Burma)

DISASTER MANAGEMENT ADVISOR, U.S. FOREST SERVICE, MYANMAR (2017)

"The big floods in Southern China are causing some real problems for Vietnam and Myanmar and DMRS/EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) is the best visualization for this regional flood situation."

Susan Cruz
Philippines

DIRECTOR, OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE (2015)

"We are very appreciative of your support to our country."

Giuseppe Timperio
21 Lower Kent Ridge Rd, Singapore 119077

RESEARCH ENGINEER, ADVANCED SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT & HUMANITARIAN LOGISTICS, NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE (2016)

"I knew of 'InAWARE' and I am impressed by its capabilities. Information sharing in the humanitarian context is still a big challenge (especially in ASEAN), and the efforts you are putting to close this gap are highly appreciated, and indeed highly useful for the whole humanitarian community."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho
Matraman, East Jakarta City, Jakarta 13120, Indonesia

HEAD OF DATA, INFORMATION, AND PUBLIC RELATIONS FOR INDONESIA'S NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AGENCY, BNPB

Harlan V. Hale
Banten, Indonesia

REGIONAL ADVISOR, USAID/DCHA/OFDA/EAP

"From a disaster management perspective, these agencies [PDC, HOT, PetaBencana.id] have combined their skills, have worked well together, and have created something that is really innovative, useful, and can actually improve both the disaster response by the government and citizen's participation in it as well."

Willem Rampangilei
Jl. Anyar No.12, RT.2/RW.1, Leuwinutug, Kec. Citeureup, Bogor, Jawa Barat 16810, Indonesia

CHIEF, BNPB

"As I mentioned when we met recently at BNPB HQ Jakarta, I want to extend my appreciation to you, to your colleagues at PDC, and to USAID/OFDA for your hard work and dedication – and for your tangible results – in building capabilities and capacities for disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, especially in the area of hazard monitoring and early warning."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho
West Java, Indonesia

HEAD OF DATA, INFORMATION, AND PUBLIC RELATIONS, BNPB (2017)

"Thank you very much for your support in Mt Agung eruption. Very useful to us."

Captain Stephen M. Russell
Hay St, Nassau, The Bahamas

Director, National Emergency Management Agency, The Bahamas (2019)

PDC's advanced modeling capabilities and mapped products helped accurately anticipate the nature and extent of impacts from Dorian so that we could protect the most at-risk communities and coordinate life-saving humanitarian relief. These products were used daily in planning and public outreach, and in briefing national officials, including the Prime Minister, to prepare effectively. In addition, PDC team members gathered, analyzed, and disseminated critical information that helped organize crucial emergency support functions with the responsibility for evacuation
and relief, public health and human services, search and rescue, and the restoration of critical public infrastructure.

John Marinos
Bangkok, Thailand

Regional Information Management Officer
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Bangkok (2019)

I was specifically asked to pass on to you how everyone was impressed and grateful for the JADE for the Afghanistan scenario. It was exactly what they needed to begin discussions on contingency planning and all that. It of course paves the way for when we need to do one there for real.

Kevin Miller
Sacramento, CA, USA

Earthquake & Tsunami Program Manager
Seismic Hazards Branch, California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (2019)

We appreciate the update and the fantastic map information products for the Garlock Scenario and are putting them to use on contingency planning. These are the types of info that can be shown in large format around the SOC helping with situational awareness.

John Marinos
Geneva, Switzerland

UNOCHA Information Specialist, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

PDC–United Nations OCHA collaborate on advanced data and science to support humanitarian assistance

Jenifer E. Smoak
Kuala Lumpur, Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaSenior Director, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief, United States Department of Defense (2019)

There is no doubt that we would have been unable to conduct the 2019 COMMEX and STAFFEX
without PDC's support. In the words of INDOPACOM's Exercises Chief, this exercise was the most robust of its kind ever to be conducted in INDOPACOM.

Scott Griffin
Camp H. M. Smith, Halawa, HI 96701, USADeputy, C4 Engagements and Interoperablity, J65 U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (2019)

I am writing on behalf of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's Multinational Communications Interoperability Program (MCIP) to express our gratitude for the support your organization has provided in building and executing exercises, briefs to senior personnel, and training on DisasterAWARE. PDC's exceptional contributions led the effort to build a meaningful scenario and was the basis on which a very successful PACIFIC ENDEAVOR 2019 (PE19) was completed.

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