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Current Hazard Updates

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    16 minutes ago ADVISORY

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VIEW ALL HAZARDS

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – PM – Pacific / Indian Oceans


There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5PM PDT WED OCTOBER 5, 2011

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map - Showing the areas under investigation above

Latest eastern Pacific IR satellite image

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

200 PM HST WED OCTOBER 5 2011

No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday afternoon

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Hawaii Weather Overview


EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT:    
The trade winds will be on the stronger and gusty side of the wind spectrum today. As we push into Thursday, we’ll begin to see a slightly lighter wind flow arriving over the islands…which will continue through the rest of this week. The winds aren’t going to be stopping completely by any means, although will mellow out a touch. We’ll likely find light to moderately strong trade winds continuing into the first day or two of next week.

The latest computer models are showing a cold front digging southward towards the tropics around the middle of next week. This in turn would turn our long lasting trade winds off, or slow them way down for several days. Some of the models are now showing a low pressure system forming to the northwest of the state. If, and this is still quite a large if, this were to happen, we could see southwest kona winds kick in, which could carry showers our way for several days…stay tuned for more about these two possibilities.

Meanwhile, the surf’s up along our south and west facing beaches. The NWS high surf advisory remains active on the southern leeward beaches, although will likely be dropped by Thursday. The north shores have some surf, as do the east facing beaches...although they're quite a bit smaller. The south shore surf will be diminishing through the rest of the week, as usually happens this time of year. The north and west shores will become more and more active as we head deeper into our autumn season.

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 17L (Philippe) is active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 530 miles south-southeast of Bermuda…sustained winds of 65 mph.


PDC Global Hazards Atlas showing Tropical cyclone Philippe, with storm track, error cone, and 3 hour accumulated rainfall

 

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT WED October 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map

NOAA Satellite image

Global Hazards Atlas

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – AM – Pacific / Indian Oceans


Tropical cyclone 22W (Nalgae)
is dissipating in the Gulf of Tonkin…located approximately 100 NM north of Hue, Vietnam (Weakening tropical depression…20 knot sustained winds) - Final Warning

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11AM PDT WED OCTOBER 5, 2011

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED  IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map - Showing the areas under investigation above

Latest eastern Pacific IR satellite image

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

800 AM HST WED OCTOBER 5 2011

No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday morning

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 22W (Nalgae) - Final Warning

JTWC textual product
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – PM – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 22W (Nalgae) is active in the Gulf of Tonkin…located approximately 180 NM southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam (Weakening tropical depression…30 knot sustained winds)

 
 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5PM PDT TUE OCTOBER 4, 2011

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map - Showing the area under investigation above

Latest eastern Pacific IR satellite image

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

200 PM HST TUE OCTOBER 4 2011

No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 22W (Nalgae)    

JTWC textual product
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Hawaii Weather Overview


EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT:   
The trade winds will hold steady in the rather strong and gusty realms through mid-week or Thursday. This is keeping our small craft wind advisory active over those windiest coastal and channel waters in Maui County and the Big Island. As the high pressure area now to our north, moves eastward through the week…our local trade winds will taper off  gradually into the weekend.

Meanwhile, our island skies will remain cloudier than usual, with a combination of high cirrus clouds above, and lower level clouds being carried our way on the breezy trades.  As the trade winds peak in strength over the next few days, they will continue to carry somewhat more showery clouds our way, generally arriving along the windward coasts and slopes. The leeward sides may eventually see a few showers being carried over that way on the locally strong and gusty trade winds.

The weather related feature during this first half of the week, which will have the greatest impact…will be the larger than normal south swell along our leeward beaches. We have an active high surf advisory along those beaches…likely lasting through Wednesday. Large surf in respect to these south and west facing beaches, will necessitate caution for our local visitors and others too.  At the same time, we'll find wind swell waves kicked up by the trade winds on our east shores, and some waves from the north through northwest breaking along our north shores too.

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – AM – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 22W (Nalgae) is active in the Gulf of Tonkin…located approximately 210 NM southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam (Strengthening tropical depression…30 knot sustained winds)

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11AM PDT TUE OCTOBER 4, 2011

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map - Showing the area under investigation above

Latest eastern Pacific IR satellite image

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

800 AM HST TUE OCTOBER 4 2011

No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 22W (Nalgae)    

JTWC textual product
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 17L (Philippe) is active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 665 miles south-southeast of Bermuda…sustained winds of 65 mph)

 

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT TUE October 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 665 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map

NOAA Satellite image

Global Hazards Atlas

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – PM – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 22W (Nalgae) is active over the South China Sea…located approximately 340 NM east-southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam (Weakening tropical storm…40 knot sustained winds)

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5PM PDT MON OCTOBER 3, 2011

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map - Showing the area under investigation above

Latest eastern Pacific IR satellite image

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

200 PM HST MON OCTOBER 3 2011

No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday afternoon

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 22W (Nalgae)    

JTWC textual product
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Hawaii Weather Overview


EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT: 
The trade winds are on the rise in terms of strength, which will hold steady in the rather strong gusty realms through Thursday or so. This has sparked a small craft wind advisory over those windiest coastal and channel waters in Maui County and the Big Island. As the high pressure area now to our north, moves eastward through the week...our local trade winds will calm down some Friday into the weekend.

Meanwhile, our island skies will range between clear to mostly cloudy at times, although rainfall will be at a minimal for the time being. At the moment, we find lots of high cirrus clouds being carried our way aloft, from the southwest. As the trade winds peak in strength over the next few days, they will begin to carry somewhat more showery clouds our way, generally arriving along the windward coasts and slopes. The leeward sides may eventually see a few showers being carried over that way on the locally strong and gusty trade winds.

The weather related feature during this first half of the week, which will have the greatest impact...will be the rising south swell along our leeward beaches. There will be high surf advisory flags going up along those beaches beginning this afternoon...and likely lasting through Wednesday. Large to very large surf in respect to these south and west facing beaches, will necessitate caution for our local visitors and others too. This early autumn south swell will start to ease up Thursday onwards.

Page 398 of 399

PDC Senior Weather Specialist

Glenn James has been working with PDC for two decades as lead meteorologist, bringing together the most accurate, up-to-date tropical cyclone developments from around the world into a single, one-stop weather page. Glenn is a meteorologist working in the area of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans and has degrees in Physical Geography/Meteorology from Sonoma State University in northern California. He taught at the University of Hawaii, Maui campus for ten years, before joining the Pacific Disaster Center as the Senior Weather Specialist in 1996. He was awarded the Dr. Arthur N.L. Chiu Award (for Hurricane Preparedness) by the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency in 2015.

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500 C St SW, Washington, DC 20024, USA

FEMA NATIONAL HEADQUARTERS GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION OFFICER (2015)

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"Many thanks for your important information about the ongoing outbreak of Zika virus in the Americas."

Mr. Eliezer Serrano, Jr.
Rio de Janeiro, State of Rio de Janeiro, BrazilLEAD DATA FUSION MANAGER, U.S. SOUTHCOM JOINT OPERATIONS CENTER (2016)

PDC's support in the SOUTHCOM region and its commitment to promote public safety were unfailing during the Rio Olympics. [DisasterAWARE] greatly enhanced our situational awareness and offered an abundance of useful data and safety monitoring information."

Don Price
Myanmar (Burma)DISASTER MANAGEMENT ADVISOR, U.S. FOREST SERVICE, MYANMAR (2017)

"The big floods in Southern China are causing some real problems for Vietnam and Myanmar and DMRS/EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) is the best visualization for this regional flood situation."

Susan Cruz
PhilippinesDIRECTOR, OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE (2015)

"We are very appreciative of your support to our country."

Giuseppe Timperio
21 Lower Kent Ridge Rd, Singapore 119077RESEARCH ENGINEER, ADVANCED SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT & HUMANITARIAN LOGISTICS, NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE (2016)

"I knew of 'InAWARE' and I am impressed by its capabilities. Information sharing in the humanitarian context is still a big challenge (especially in ASEAN), and the efforts you are putting to close this gap are highly appreciated, and indeed highly useful for the whole humanitarian community."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho
Matraman, East Jakarta City, Jakarta 13120, Indonesia

HEAD OF DATA, INFORMATION, AND PUBLIC RELATIONS FOR INDONESIA'S NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AGENCY, BNPB

Harlan V. Hale
Banten, IndonesiaREGIONAL ADVISOR, USAID/DCHA/OFDA/EAP

"From a disaster management perspective, these agencies [PDC, HOT, PetaBencana.id] have combined their skills, have worked well together, and have created something that is really innovative, useful, and can actually improve both the disaster response by the government and citizen's participation in it as well."

Willem Rampangilei
Jl. Anyar No.12, RT.2/RW.1, Leuwinutug, Kec. Citeureup, Bogor, Jawa Barat 16810, IndonesiaCHIEF, BNPB

"As I mentioned when we met recently at BNPB HQ Jakarta, I want to extend my appreciation to you, to your colleagues at PDC, and to USAID/OFDA for your hard work and dedication – and for your tangible results – in building capabilities and capacities for disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, especially in the area of hazard monitoring and early warning."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho
West Java, IndonesiaHEAD OF DATA, INFORMATION, AND PUBLIC RELATIONS, BNPB (2017)

"Thank you very much for your support in Mt Agung eruption. Very useful to us."

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