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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – AM – Pacific / Indian Oceans


Tropical cyclone 10E (Jova)  is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 220 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Strengthening major hurricane…125 mph sustained winds)

Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 745 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Tropical storm…40 mph sustained winds)

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 10E (Jova)

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
PDC Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Irwin)  

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
PDC Global Hazards Atlas

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11AM PDT MON OCTOBER 10, 2011

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 745 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Latest eastern Pacific IR satellite image

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

800 AM HST MON OCTOBER 10 2011

No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday morning

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – PM – Pacific / Indian Oceans


Tropical cyclone 10E (Jova)  is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 490 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Strengthening tropical storm…65 mph sustained winds)

Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 960 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Strengthening hurricane…90 mph sustained winds)

 

Hawaii Weather Overview


EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT: 
The trade winds are being driven by a moderately strong high pressure system far to the northeast of the islands. This high is located well over half way towards the California coast, although it has an associated ridge of high pressure extending west-southwest back to a point around 30 degrees north latitude...to the north of our islands. These moderately strong trade winds will hold steady through the weekend, into the first several days of the new week ahead. There's a chance that some change in our wind speeds and directions could occur beginning during the second half of next week.

Showers will continue to be drawn over the windward sides of the islands, as showery clouds get carried our way on the trade wind flow. We've seen a few showers being carried all the way over into the leeward sides on the smaller islands. The clouds upstream of the islands look fairly normal at this time, so there doesn't appear to be anything unusual on tap in terms of our precipitation through the next 5-6 days. Towards the second half of the upcoming new work week, around next Thursday or Friday, the models are suggesting that we may see some changes coming our way...stay tuned.

 

Special Weather Summary

Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones Jova and Irwin

The eastern north Pacific continues to be very active at the moment, with a hurricane, a tropical storm, and an area under investigation, with a moderate 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone...all happening within a fairly small area of the ocean.

Hurricane Irwin: Irwin is the farthest west of these three tropical systems, near 14N and 122W. The current sustained winds near the center are 92 mph, with  gusts to 115 mph. The NHC forecast has this tropical cyclone remaining at the hurricane level through the middle of the new week ahead. Rather than heading towards the west or north, as if often the case, this hurricane veers around towards the east, as it moves towards mainland Mexico, well to the south of the southern tip of Baja, California.

NHC graphical track map

NOAA satellite image of Irwin

UW-CIMSS TCTRAK /Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery - showing latitude, longitude and wind speed in knots

Weather Underground computer forecast models for Irwin

Tropical Storm Jova: Jova is involved in a somewhat unfavorable environment for strengthening, although this is expected to change later Saturday, at which point a rapid intensification could take place. The sustained winds at the time of this writing were still in the tropical storm category, blowing 65 mph, with gusts to near 75 mph. The NHC forecast brings Jova to a hurricane by late Saturday morning. This storm is forecast to become a major hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast this coming Monday night.

NHC graphical track map

NOAA satellite image of Jova

UW-CIMSS TCTRAK / /Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery - showing latitude, longitude and wind speed in knots

Weather Underground computer forecast models for Jova

Invest 99E:  This tropical disturbance has formed a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next two days. If this disturbance were to strengthen into a tropical depression, it would be given the number 12E, and if further development took place...given the name Kenneth.

NHC placement of this disturbance, orange circled area

NOAA satellite image of 99E

Weather Underground computer forecast models for 99E

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – AM – Pacific / Indian Oceans


Tropical cyclone 10E (Jova)  is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 535 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Strengthening tropical storm…60 mph sustained winds)

Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 925 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Strengthening hurricane…85 mph sustained winds)

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 10E (Jova)

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
PDC Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Irwin)  

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
PDC Global Hazards Atlas

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11AM PDT FRI OCTOBER 7, 2011

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 535 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND ON HURRICANE IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Latest eastern Pacific IR satellite image

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

800 AM HST FRI OCTOBER 7 2011

No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday morning

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 17L (Philippe) is active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 575 miles east-southeast of Bermuda (Hurricane...sustained winds of 85 mph)

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT FRI October 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map

NOAA Satellite image

Global Hazards Atlas

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – PM – Pacific / Indian Oceans


Tropical cyclone 10E (Jova)  is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 490 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Tropical storm…45 mph sustained winds)

Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 885 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Strengthening tropical storm…58 mph sustained winds)

 

Hawaii Weather Overview


EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT:   
The trade winds remain our major weather element, although the high surf along our leeward beaches have been giving our locally gusty winds a run for their money in this regard. A full bodied 1026 millibar high pressure system remains more or less parked to our north-northeast. This trade wind producing high pressure center will gradually be shifting eastward, and as it does...our local winds will slack-off slightly through the next 4-5 days. The small craft wind advisories, which we've in place around Maui County and the Big Island most of this week, have been dropped now, in anticipation of these slightly lighter trades.

In the rain department, there will continue to be those occasional showers. This will as usual, focus their efforts most effectively along our north and east facing windward coasts and slopes. Local radar shows that there have been a few showers sporting medium intensities, although these have remained offshore to the south of the islands. The rather extensive high cirrus clouds of late, continue to spread over the islands. These icy clouds don't drop rain over our islands, or over the surrounding ocean either, although they certainly dim our sunshine during the days. The up side of this however is the colorful sunrise and sunset colors.

Looking into next week, after finishing off this week in a rather pleasant way, we find some possible changes around next Thursday. The GFS forecast model shows a cold front extending down into the subtropics to our northwest. Then, around the middle of next week a low pressure system forms along the tail-end of this frontal boundary. It's still too early to know exactly what changes may result in our local weather then, although perhaps a week from today...we could see the possibility of some showers arriving around Friday into the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 17L (Philippe) is active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 425 miles southeast of Bermuda (Hurricane...sustained winds of 80 mph)

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT THUR October 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map

NOAA Satellite image

Global Hazards Atlas

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – AM – Pacific / Indian Oceans


Tropical cyclone 10E  is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 540 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Tropical depression…35 mph sustained winds)

Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 885 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Tropical storm…40 mph sustained winds)

 

Page 397 of 399

PDC Senior Weather Specialist

Glenn James has been working with PDC for two decades as lead meteorologist, bringing together the most accurate, up-to-date tropical cyclone developments from around the world into a single, one-stop weather page. Glenn is a meteorologist working in the area of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans and has degrees in Physical Geography/Meteorology from Sonoma State University in northern California. He taught at the University of Hawaii, Maui campus for ten years, before joining the Pacific Disaster Center as the Senior Weather Specialist in 1996. He was awarded the Dr. Arthur N.L. Chiu Award (for Hurricane Preparedness) by the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency in 2015.

What our partners are saying about us...

Title Address Description
Kenta Hamasaki
Honolulu, HI, USATHE CONSULATE GENERAL OF JAPAN, HONOLULU, HI (2016)

"Aloha Julie. Hello. After the registration [for DisasterAWARE], I started to receive warnings such as Typhoon Meranti. That data contains necessary info and is so graphic that it's easy to know at a glance how the impact is. This is very important for our duties. Thank you again."

Paulo Bayly
FijiPERMANENT SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE & TRANSPORT, FIJI (2016)

"Thank you and your team for so quickly responding to our needs."

Ana Ake
TongaMINISTRY OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS, KINGDOM OF TONGA (2017)

"I was first introduced to EMOPS (DisasterAWARE)...during a HA/DR training in Auckland this year. I've worked with several tools and it is obvious that EMOPS is the only sustainable tool that is available and is openly available."

Jonathan Colwell
California, USAGOESPATIAL COORDINATOR, DHS-FEMA REGION 9 (2016)

"EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) made my day so much easier while monitoring [Tropical Cyclone] AMOS. Data that I thought I'd spend a good part of the morning digging for was available, as were the tools to draw polygons and annotate and meet the requirement."

John Andoe
Texas, USAEMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATOR, TEXAS HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (2017)

“Keep up the good work. I'm using EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) in Texas to monitor Hurricane Harvey.”

Matt Lott
Virginia, USAEMERGENCY COORDINATOR OF SAFETY, SECURITY AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (2016)

"I work for the Virginia DOT as an emergency planner. I would like to be added to your distribution list for awareness products. I followed work during Hurricane Mathew and would like to avail our organization of your great products."

USDA Foreign Agriculture Service officer
Washington, DC, USAUSDA (2016)

"Your suggestion that we look at PDC content and capabilities has really paid off. We partnered with them, and are ingesting their global disaster feeds into [Global Agricultural & Disaster Assessment System] GADAS. The addition of a couple of our own applications to quickly delineate impacted areas and extract agricultural acreage and population has proved quite valuable."

Christopher Vaughan
500 C St SW, Washington, DC 20024, USA

FEMA NATIONAL HEADQUARTERS GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION OFFICER (2015)

"My sincerest thanks to the PDC team during this event. [Tropical Cyclone Dolphin] Your professionalism and dedication to the mission is to be commended. I'm sure we will have plenty to discuss/improve upon in the weeks to follow. Thanks again for all the support. Great job team."

Daniel B. Whitley
1400 Independence Ave SW #5071, Washington, DC 20250, USAACTING ASSOCIATE ADMINISTRATOR, FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE (2017)

"On behalf of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Services, I would like to express my appreciation and full support of the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) for its essential contributions...with data and support...we've been able to improve our global agricultural production and disaster assessment analyses, products, and decision outcomes."

Jesse Rozelle
500 C St SW, Washington, DC 20024, USAPROGRAM MANAGER, NATURAL HAZARDS RISK ASSESSMENT PROGRAM, FEMA (2017)

"Aloha PDC team: I wanted to express my sincere gratitude for all of your support during Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The modeling and risk assessment support you have provided to FEMA has been incredibly helpful for our response efforts and our emergency management partners. I'm looking forward to a continued partnership."

Lisa Samson on PDC products during hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria
Miami, FL, USA

ASSISTANT DEPUTY DIRECTOR, EXERCISES & COALITION AFFAIRS, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2017)

"[I] wanted to pass along that the reports that PDC is generating are succinct and extremely informative. I've passed along to other colleagues in the HQs staff and other COCOMs to peak their interest. Well done!"

William I. Clark
9301 NW 33rd St, Doral, FL 33178, USA

HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE DIVISION CHIEF, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2017)

"Our success during response efforts is directly related to PDC's contribution. The set of tools offered by your decision support system (DisasterAWARE), the large amount of data, the modeling and assessments, and skill set of your staff are unique. They provide my team with great situational awareness in a timely manner, enabling rapid and informed decision making in critical periods."

Brian Abbott
Doral, FL, USALIEUTENANT COLONEL, PUBLIC-PRIVATE COOPERATION PROGRAM COORDINATOR, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2016)

"As a Public-Private Cooperation (PPC) Program Coordinator, PDC's vision and leadership translates into strategies that enable others to effectively achieve results."

Gayle Outten-Moncour
The Bahamas

BAHAMAS DISASTER RECOVERY MANAGER AND FIRST ASSISTANT SECRETARY

Jeremy K. Delancy
Nassau, The Bahamas

SENIOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF SOCIAL SERVICES & COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT, COMMONWEALTH OF THE BAHAMAS (2016)

"I wanted [PDC] to know that I used DisasterAWARE during Hurricane Joaquin and it performed admirably. Some further training will be needed for us to use it to its full capabilities. One of the persons who was quite impressed is Chief Meteorological Officer, Mr. Arnold King."

Carolann Albury
E Bay St, Nassau, The Bahamas

DIRECTOR, BAHAMAS NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (2017)

"…thank you all for the assistance you have rendered on so many occasions to The BNGISC but more importantly to The Bahamas."

Marcus Elten
New York, NY, USAUNITED NATIONS OCHA (2016)

"I was impressed with how quickly you guys developed situational awareness products...quite impressed with your team's work."

Claudia Mateo
Dominican RepublicPRESIDENT, REPUBLICA DOMINCANA COMISIÓN NACIONAL DE ENERGÍA

"Thank you for being aware of our situation and for the sending of images for analysis."

Paul Ugarte
GuatemalaCONRED SPECIAL ADVISOR TO THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY OF GUATEMALA

Eric Yarrell
Comayagua, Honduras

LIEUTENANT COLONEL, UNITED STATES AIR FORCE, JTF-BRAVO (2017)

"JTF-Bravo sincerely appreciated the HADR decision-support information provided by the Pacific Disaster Center during Hurricane Irma response… has been both timely and valuable support of current operations."

Augusto Moreno O'Phelan
PeruDIRECTOR GENERAL FOR POLICY AND STRATEGY, MINISTRY OF DEFENSE, PERU (2016)

"Many thanks for your important information about the ongoing outbreak of Zika virus in the Americas."

Mr. Eliezer Serrano, Jr.
Rio de Janeiro, State of Rio de Janeiro, BrazilLEAD DATA FUSION MANAGER, U.S. SOUTHCOM JOINT OPERATIONS CENTER (2016)

PDC's support in the SOUTHCOM region and its commitment to promote public safety were unfailing during the Rio Olympics. [DisasterAWARE] greatly enhanced our situational awareness and offered an abundance of useful data and safety monitoring information."

Don Price
Myanmar (Burma)DISASTER MANAGEMENT ADVISOR, U.S. FOREST SERVICE, MYANMAR (2017)

"The big floods in Southern China are causing some real problems for Vietnam and Myanmar and DMRS/EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) is the best visualization for this regional flood situation."

Susan Cruz
PhilippinesDIRECTOR, OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE (2015)

"We are very appreciative of your support to our country."

Giuseppe Timperio
21 Lower Kent Ridge Rd, Singapore 119077RESEARCH ENGINEER, ADVANCED SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT & HUMANITARIAN LOGISTICS, NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE (2016)

"I knew of 'InAWARE' and I am impressed by its capabilities. Information sharing in the humanitarian context is still a big challenge (especially in ASEAN), and the efforts you are putting to close this gap are highly appreciated, and indeed highly useful for the whole humanitarian community."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho
Matraman, East Jakarta City, Jakarta 13120, Indonesia

HEAD OF DATA, INFORMATION, AND PUBLIC RELATIONS FOR INDONESIA'S NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AGENCY, BNPB

Harlan V. Hale
Banten, IndonesiaREGIONAL ADVISOR, USAID/DCHA/OFDA/EAP

"From a disaster management perspective, these agencies [PDC, HOT, PetaBencana.id] have combined their skills, have worked well together, and have created something that is really innovative, useful, and can actually improve both the disaster response by the government and citizen's participation in it as well."

Willem Rampangilei
Jl. Anyar No.12, RT.2/RW.1, Leuwinutug, Kec. Citeureup, Bogor, Jawa Barat 16810, IndonesiaCHIEF, BNPB

"As I mentioned when we met recently at BNPB HQ Jakarta, I want to extend my appreciation to you, to your colleagues at PDC, and to USAID/OFDA for your hard work and dedication – and for your tangible results – in building capabilities and capacities for disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, especially in the area of hazard monitoring and early warning."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho
West Java, IndonesiaHEAD OF DATA, INFORMATION, AND PUBLIC RELATIONS, BNPB (2017)

"Thank you very much for your support in Mt Agung eruption. Very useful to us."

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