Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, October 23, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of America

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone Melissa…is located about 280 miles southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti

Atlantic Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

MELISSA REORGANIZING AND EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON…HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND

According to the NHC advisory number 9

Melissa is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward motion is forecast during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradually strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by more rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti and Jamaica beginning on late Friday or Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica earlier on Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 6 to 12 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in the exact totals. Regardless, significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected.

Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days.