Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, September 15, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone Mario is located about 340 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Northeast Pacific Ocean:  

Tropical Cyclone Mario

MARIO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS

According to the NHC advisory number 14

Mario is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico:

>>> An trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east Pacific.

*Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
*Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

>>> There’s a, area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 108 NM north of Legazpi

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a system that is becoming more compact and developing a low-level circulation (llc). Formative banding is evident along the northwest periphery of the llc. A partial 160106z ascat-c image shows 20-25 knot winds north of center.

Global models indicate development with a west-northwestward track over the next 24 hours.

Deterministic and ensemble models depict intensification with a north-northwestward track toward Luzon, Philippines.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.