Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, June 30, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Flossie)…is located about 200 south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico

Northeast Pacific Ocean:  

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Flossie)

FLOSSIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO

According to the NHC advisory number 7

Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

South of Southwestern Mexico:

>>> An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:  There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific

>>> An area of disturbed weather, which is being referred to as Invest 98W, is located approximately 677 NM east of Manila, Philippines

Multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a slowly consolidating low level circulation center with building convection throughout the circulation. However, a recent ascat-c pass portrays the suspected area to be a broad area of troughing.

Environmental analysis reveals a highly favorable environment for development with low level vertical wind shear of 10-15 knots, good dual-channel upper-level outflow and warm sea surface
temperatures.

Deterministic and ensemble models indicate low likelihood of development over the next two days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.