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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, November 4, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 31W (Kalmaegi)…is located 240 NM south of Manila, Philippines

Tropical Cyclone 32W…is located 216 NM east of Yap

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 31W (Kalmaegi)

According to the JTWC warning number 14…sustained winds are 70 knots with gusts to 85 knots

Typhoon 31W (Kalmaegi) is still recovering from its time over the central Philippines having temporarily decreased in intensity over the past 6 hours. The structure of TY Kalmaegi shows signs of tightening again as the circulation enters the Sulu Sea. Major convective activity is currently flaring in the southwest quadrant as depicted by animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery.

Environmental conditions reflect marginal conditions for continued development with strong outflow and warm sea surface temperatures (29 c to 30 c) offset by unfavorable vertical wind shear (25-30 kts).

TY Kalmaegi will continue to track westward over the Sulu Sea under the influence of a subtropical ridge to the northeast. The system will strengthen slightly over water before
encountering the northern portion of Palawan, Philippines. Following landfall over Palawan around 12 hours, the system will start a northwestward track as ridging over the Gulf of Tonkin takes over steering.

TY Kalmaegi is forecast to intensify again encountering marginally favorable conditions over the South China Sea characterized by warm sea surface temperatures (29 c to 30 c) and relatively lower vertical wind shear (20-25 kts). A peak intensity of 95 kts is forecast around 48 hours.

Between 48 hours and 72 TY Kalmaegi will make landfall south of Quy Nhon, Vietnam and begin a rapidly weakening trend facilitated by topographic interaction. The system will fully dissipate over land by 96 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 32W

According to the JTWC warning number 2…sustained winds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts developing deep convective banding nearly fully obscuring the low-level circulation center (llcc) associated with tropical depression 32W.

Environmental conditions remain conducive to development, including warm (30-31 c) sea surface temperatures (sst), low vertical wind shear (vws) of 5-10 kts, good equatorward outflow channel, counteracted only by moderately dry air to the north and northwest.

TD 32W is expected to continue consolidating and intensifying over the forecast period as it tracks toward the northern Philippines. The system is initially forecast to remain in a weak steering environment dominated by a northeasterly low-level flow north of the llcc and a westward extension of a str centered to the northeast.

therefore, over the next 12 hours, TD 32W is forecast to track very slowly, or even remain quasi-stationary, while further consolidating into a more compact tropical storm. simultaneously, the
extension of the str is expected to retrograde eastward, allowing the well-structured system to turn northwestward around 24-36 hours. Afterward, the system will track along the southwestern periphery of the ridge.

In terms of intensity, TD 32W is expected to reach typhoon-level wind maxima within the next 36 hours and continue strengthening as it remains in a favorable environment, provided the vortex becomes fully shielded from entraining dry air.