Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, April 20, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 31P…is located approximately 446 NM east of Darwin, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 31P

According to the JTWC Warning number 12, sustained winds are 30 knots, with gusts to 40 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a partially obscured low level circulation center (llcc) and isolated pockets of deep convection arrayed in an irregular pattern to the east and south of the llcc. Animated radar data out of Weipa shows defined low-level banding features, particularly to the south and west of the center, and weaker bands to the north and east.

The center has become increasingly defined over the past few hours in the radar imagery, suggesting the vortex, which is currently tilted west with
height, may be starting to vertically align. A microwave image showed a defined low emissivity region defining the llcc, which matched up well with the radar indicated center.

Comparison with the 91ghz channel reveals a decreased amount of vortex tilt, though all of the convective activity is confined to the south and east of the center, indicative of relatively dry air still ensconced to the north of the system.

Analysis reveals a favorable environment, with low (and lowering) northeasterly shear, very warm sea surface temperatures, high ohc and moderate poleward outflow aloft.

TC 31P has traced a rather meandering track over the past 12 hours or so, trapped in a weak steering pattern with no clear-cut steering influences. This has started to change over the last six hours, with the system now moving at about four knots towards the southwest as the a deep-layer subtropical ridge (str) center has begun to build in the Coral Sea.

Over the next 12 hours, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build over northern Australia which will push TC 31P onto a more westward track at first, slowly arcing onto a more northwestward track through the remainder of the forecast period.

In terms of intensity, as the system moves further away from the coast and further into the Gulf of Carpentaria, shear is forecast to steadily lower, which will allow for vortex symmetrization and vertical alignment.

Once the vortex aligns, TC 31P will quickly take advantage of the warm, high ohc waters of the Gulf and steadily intensify. the close approach to the northern shores of Arnhem Land after 24 hours will cause some disruption to the system which will compete with otherwise favorable conditions, to arrest further development through 48 hours. If the system remains further offshore however, it is possible it could intensify further.

By 72 hours, shear will begin to increase again as the system tracks equatorward, which along with dry air intrusions, will steadily weaken the system, which is forecast by 96 hours as it enters the Banda Sea.