Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, October 13, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Nakri) is located approximately 400 NM east of Yokosuka, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:  

South of Southern Mexico:

>>> A broad trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Little development is expected during the next few days while the system meanders well offshore. Towards the end of the week, environmental conditions appear more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while the system drifts northward then northwestward near or just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts little change in the intensity of typhoon 29W (Nakri) as evidenced by fairly steady cloud tops temperatures in eir imagery. As the system has tracked northeastward, steered by an elongated subtropical ridge (str) to the south, equatorward outflow has decreased. strong poleward outflow now stands out as the primary exhaust mechanism.

Current environmental conditions continue to become more unfavorable for TY Nakri with cooling sea surface temperatures (25 c to 26 c), high vertical wind shear (25-30 kts), and a significant amount of dry air wrapping into the core of the vortex.

Typhoon 29W (Nakri) will continue east-northeastward for the remainder of the forecast period.

Environmental conditions are forecast to increasingly deteriorate with the circulation encountering even higher wind shear (35-45 knots) and cooling sea surface temperatures (24 c to 25 c), while continuing to entrain dry air into the core of the system.

Extratropical transition (ett) will commence around 24 hours. though the forecast environmental setup suggests that the system could complete the ett cycle soon after 36 hours, the JTWC forecast maintains that TY Nakri will become fully extratropical at or prior to 48 hours, at an intensity of around 35 knots.

There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96W, which is located approximate 478 NM south of Guam

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery as well as a 130433 gmi 89ghz microwave image depict a poorly organized broad area of turning with weak flaring convection along the southern periphery.

Environmental analysis for this area is moderately favorable for development with very warm (30-31 c) sea surface temperatures, moderate poleward outflow, and low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear.

Deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement that the area of convection (96W) will develop along a north-westward track with gradual intensification over time, with the exception of ECMWF which lacks development until the system approaches the northern tip of Luzon.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.