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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, August 29, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Nongfa) is located approximately 90 NM north of Da Nang, Vietnam

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:

Invest 93E

>>> A weak area of low pressure located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while moving west-northwestward or westward at around 10 mph across the central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

South of Southern Mexico:

>>> A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico. An area of low pressure could form from this system this weekend or early next week, and environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form by the middle of next week while moving generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph offshore of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 20W

According to the JTWC warning number 8…sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to near 50 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc), with disorganized deep convection flaring over the southwest quadrant. Animated radar imagery reveals multiple convective bands wrapping tightly into a well-defined center.

Environmental conditions are marginally favorable with northerly to northeasterly upper-level flow hindering convective development over the eastern semicircle while moderate westward and robust poleward outflow are sustaining the convective banding over the western semicircle.

Tropical depression 20W will track west-northwestward along the southern periphery of the str through the forecast period, with landfall expected near 24 hours.

Slight intensification is possible over the next day due primarily to the robust poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures but limited by the persistent vws over the eastern semicircle. After 24 hours, the system will track over Vietnam, Laos and Thailand with rapid weakening and dissipation by 36 hours.