Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, August 23, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 19W (Kajiki) is located approximately 176 NM east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

South of Southwestern Mexico:

>>> A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well off the coast of Mexico. This system is expected to move into less favorable conditions to develop around the middle of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Tropical Cyclone 19W (Kajiki)

According to the JTWC warning number 7, sustained winds are 65 knots, with gusts to near 80 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a consolidating system, with a central dense overcast feature rebuilding over and now obscuring the low-level circulation (llc). Easterly vertical wind shear (vws) has decreased quickly allowing the outflow to expand over the eastern quadrant. A 230935z gmi 89ghz color composite microwave image reveals improved low-level banding wrapping into a well-defined low-level circulation center, with deep convective banding confined to the western and southern semicircles.

In addition to the improved eastward outflow, upper-level outflow remains robust, with strong equatorward outflow and improving poleward outflow driving the improved central convection.

Tropical storm 19W is forecast to track westward along the southern periphery of the str through the forecast period, skirting the southern coast of Hainan Island near 24 hours.

TS 19W is forecast to intensify steadily to a peak intensity of 75 knots by 24 hours assuming the core of the system stays south of Hainan as indicated by hafs-a. After 24 hours, upwelling cooler water should contribute to a slight weakening trend just prior to landfall. After 48 hours, the system will rapidly weaken overland and dissipate by 72 hours.