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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, August 21, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18W Lingling is located approximately 131 NM east-southeast of Sasebo, Japan – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

South of Southwestern Mexico:

>>> An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle portions of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Lingling) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 12, sustained winds are 25 knots, with gusts to near 35 knots

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 18 NM east of Casiguran, Philippines

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a broad, highly disorganized tropical wave like feature with flaring convection along the southern periphery of the low level circulation. Furthermore, a 210053z ascat metop-c 25km pass further emphasizes the broad nature of the system as it approaches the eastern coast of Luzon, Philippines. The ascat data as well as later msi suggests that the system may be starting to close-off into a closed circulation, though one that remains very broad.

Environmental analysis reveals a moderately favorable environment for development with low to moderate (15-20 knots) northerly vertical wind shear, moderate dual-channel outflow, and warm (29-30 c) sea surface temperatures.

Deterministic and ensemble models are in agreement on a westward track over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.