Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, September 12, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Mario) is located about 105 miles west of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico

Northeast Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Mario)

MARIO STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO

According to the NHC advisory number 5A

Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several hours. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast later tonight through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Mario should move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through tonight, and then begin to move farther away from the coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Mario is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

RAINFALL: Mario will lead to rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of 6 inches, across southern Mexico through Sunday. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Michoacan today. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along coastal portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 338 NM west-northwest of Cocos Islands

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) does not depict a definable low level circulation center (llcc) for invest 93s, only a very broad and ill-defined rotation with convection being sheared to the southern periphery. A 112122z ssmis 91ghz microwave image depicted an ill-defined and elongated rotation displaced to the northeast of a patch of disorganized convection.

Environmental analysis reveals marginal to favorable environment for development with low to moderate vertical wind shear (20-25 knots), strong upper level equatorward outflow and
warm (27-28 c) sea surface temperature.

Deterministic models have rapidly backed off on development over the last couple runs, with no models showing significant development within the next 24 hours. However, ensemble models are continuing to depict a modest amount of development during the same time window. Both global and ensemble guidance agree on a west-southwestward track over the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 22 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.