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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, September 1, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Kiko) is located about 1265 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 12E is located about 145 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Kiko)

According to the NHC advisory number 7

KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN

Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn back toward the west on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 12E

According to the NHC advisory number 1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest and north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system will likely become a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 95W, which is located approximately 450 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a broad area of troughing with persistent, flaring convection. a recent ship observation from 020300z shows 12 knot winds from the southeast.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for development with low vertical wind shear of 10-15 knots, dual-channel upper-level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures (sst) of 29-30 c.

Deterministic models indicate a closed circulation forming adjacent to a swath of 25-30 knot gradient winds over the next 24-36 hours, with slow intensification and a northward track toward western Japan. Ehe GEFS and ECENS ensembles also support a northward track toward Kyushu over the next two days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.