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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, August 31, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Kiko) is located approximately 1120 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Kiko)

According to the NHC advisory number 4

KIKO EXPECTED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS

Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected, and Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

South of Southern Mexico:

>>> A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coast of southern Mexico. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system within the next day or two, and it will likely become a tropical depression around the middle of the week. This system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Interests in the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 95W, which is located approximately 641 NM east of Manila, Philippines.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a broad and weakly defined low level circulation with sparse convection throughout. A 302357z ascat metop-b image further emphasizes
the elongated nature of 95W.

Environmental analysis for the area indicates marginally favorable conditions for development with low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots) and warm sea surface temperatures (30
c), offset by weak equatorward outflow aloft and the broad nature of the wind field.

Global deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement on a northward track with gradual development over the next 24-48 hours. ECMWF deterministic is currently an outlier and remains quasi-stationary in the Philippines Sea over the same time frame.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.