Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, August 12, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Henriette)…is located approximately 1040 NM north-northwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 16W (Podul)…is located approximately 182 NM south of Taipei, Taiwan

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Central Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Henriette)

HENRIETTE QUICKLY UNRAVELING IN THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC

According to the NHC advisory number 36

Henriette is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Afterwards, Henriette should slow down while turning northward and then northeastward before it dissipates by the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Henriette should become post-tropical by tomorrow, and dissipate by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 16W (Podul)  

According to the JTWC warning number 25 sustained winds are 90 knots with gusts to near 100 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery shows a significant improvement in overall structure, with a large, although still somewhat ragged, eye developing over the past few hours. Bands of relatively strong convection continue to develop in a band along the southern periphery of the circulation, and briefly wrap upshear, but have not been able to establish a fully closed eyewall on the northeast side. This is likely due to persistent northeasterly shear, which due to a lack of cimss data is based solely on model derived data. Likely there is enhanced mid-level shear from the east-northeast, as well as some lingering dry air, both of which are inhibiting the convection from fully pushing upshear and establishing a solid eyewall.

A 121238z gmi 37ghz image reveals a bean-shaped microwave eye, with a solid eyewall in all quadrants save for the north-northeast sector. The 89ghz image pretty much tells the same story, with the dryness in the mid-levels especially prevalent in the 89ghz image. Comparison of the two bands reveals a small amount of vortex tilt to the west-southwest. Of note, cimss data is intermittent and struggling to
maintain a lock on the target and is significantly under-estimating the current intensity, but raw adt values were as high as t5.4 earlier.

Environmental conditions are in the aggregate favorable with low to moderate deep-layer shear, warm ssts and moderate outflow aloft, offset somewhat by the more negative factors discussed above.

Typhoon 16W is forecast to continue tracking towards the northwest along the southern side of the str to the north, through the forecast period. As the system approaches Taiwan, the track will very likely exhibit erratic motion, with rack deflection, either right or left of the overall track, as well as significant deceleration. The amount of track deflection or deceleration will in large part depend on the exact location of landfall along the central mountain range (cmr) and cannot at this time be predicted with any accuracy.

Once the system does make landfall, within the next 12 to 18 hours, it will eventually pass over the cmr, and move into the Taiwan Strait, before quickly crossing the Strait and making a second landfall along the southeastern coast of China around 30 hours, then continuing inland into southern China.

In terms of intensity, the continued cycling of convection along the southern and southeastern periphery of the vortex has helped push back against the shear and animated water vapor imagery confirms that the upper-level flow is splitting around 250 NM upstream of the center. The nearest upper-air sounding from Ishigakijima shows easterly 200mb winds at 55 knots. Combined with the water vapor imagery, eir and microwave imagery, it is assessed that the tight shear gradient is positioned just north of the core of TY 16W, while the center and the southern half is under the influence of small-scale anticyclone aloft.

Going forward, model fields indicate continued moistening of the circulation, along with further reduction of shear, allowing for additional intensification through landfall. Once the system moves across the cmr, it will rapidly weaken, with the vortex likely decoupling in the process, before reforming in the Taiwan Strait. However, the system is not expected to intensify in the Strait, and is forecast to make landfall as a tropical storm, before rapidly weakening and dissipating over southern China by 48 hours.