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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, August 30, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Nongfa) is located approximately 199 NM south-southwest of Hanoi, Vietnam – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Western East Pacific

Invest 93E

>>> Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. If these trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to develop later tonight or on Sunday while it moves generally westward around 10 mph across the western part of the eastern Pacific basin. The system is likely to cross into the central Pacific basin by the middle to latter part of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

South of Southern Mexico:

>>> A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico. An area of low pressure could form from this system early next week, and it is likely to become a tropical depression by the middle of next week while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Western East Pacific

Invest 93E

>>> Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. If these trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to develop later tonight or on Sunday while it moves generally westward around 10 mph across the western part of the eastern Pacific basin. The system is likely to cross into the central Pacific basin by the middle to latter part of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 20W – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 10…sustained winds were 25 knots with gusts to near 35 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery reveals the low-level circulation center is obscured by upper-level cloud cover and flaring convection. A 301143z 91ghz ssmis image shows that the convection is confined to the western periphery of the system.

Nongfa made landfall shortly after 0600z and has rapidly deteriorated over the mountainous terrain in Vietnam and Laos.

20W is forecast to continue to weaken, with dissipation forecast to occur prior to 12 hours. Some models do track the remnant vorticity of 20W into the Bay of Bengal, but a very low chance of any significant development is expected due to the amount of time over land.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 95W, which is located approximately 658 NM east of Manila, Philippines.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a broad and weakly defined low level circulation with sparse convection throughout. A 302357z ascat metop-b image further emphasizes the elongated nature of 95W.

Environmental analysis for the area indicates marginally favorable conditions for development with low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots) and warm sea surface temperatures (30 c), offset by weak equatorward outflow aloft and the broad nature of the wind field.

Global deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement on a northward track with gradual development over the next 24-48 hours. ECMWF deterministic is currently an outlier and remains quasi-stationary in the Philippines Sea over the same time frame.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.