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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, August 28, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 20W is located approximately 283 NM east of Da Nang, Vietnam

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:

>>> A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

South of Southern Mexico:

>>> An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph offshore of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 20W

According to the JTWC warning number 4

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a broad low-level circulation with multiple mesovortices rotating cyclonically around an exposed centroid. The convective structure has degraded over the past six hours as indicated in the 281026z ssmis 91ghz color composite microwave image, with fragmented convective banding and a weakly defined low-level circulation center.

A 281347z ascat-b image reveals a defined circulation, with 25-30 knot winds, which supports the initial position and initial intensity with medium confidence. Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable with moderate vertical wind shear offset by westward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

Tropical depression 20W will track west-northwestward through 36 hours along the southwestern periphery of the str with slow intensification due to the marginally favorable conditions, broad nature of the llcc, and lack of a vertically aligned vortex.

Peak intensity is expected to remain in the 40-45 knot range at best. After 36 hours, the system will encounter increasing northeasterlies and increasing vertical wind shear, which will lead to a steady weakening trend. After landfall near 48 hours, the system will weaken rapidly and dissipate no later than 72 hours.