Current Snapshot

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

 

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98W…which is located approximately 313 NM east-southeast of Yap

Animated enhanced multi-spectral imagery (msi) depicts cycling deep convection that is over a poorly organized low level circulation center (llcc).

Environmental analysis for the area indicates favorable conditions for development with low vertical wind shear (10-15 kts), warm sea surface temperatures (30 c), and good equatorward outflow aloft.

Global deterministic models show 98W intensifying over the next 48 hours with gfs being the more intense model. While global ensembles are in good agreement with 98W intensifying and moving west.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 18 knots.The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

Arabian Sea

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92A…which is located approximately 309 NM west-southwest of Mumbai, India

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) depicts a broad, poorly defined low-level circulation center with flaring convection.

Environmental analysis reveals moderately favorable conditions for development with moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 kts), good poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures
(27-28 c).

Ensemble models are in disagreement, with ecens showing a stronger signal for development on a north-northeastward track and increased winds while gefs captures less confidence in regards to track and weaker winds. deterministic models are in agreement revealing a broad and poorly defined circulation that transits north-northeastward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.