Current Snapshot

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 33W

According to the JTWC warning number 2, sustained winds were 30 knots, with gusts to near 40 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a rapidly
consolidating circulation, with persistent deep convection beginning to form into a more symmetrical central dense overcast (cdo), as the system passed over southern Panay Island it was accompanied by an impressive burst of inner-core lightning, suggestive of rapid consolidation of the inner core of the system.

A 242308z ssmis 91ghz microwave image revealed nascent banding features wrapping into a still somewhat ill-defined circulation center, at least in the upper-levels. Animated radar data from Pagasa shows the nascent low level circulation center (llcc) becoming increasingly defined as it passes over the far southern portion of Panay Island.

Environmental conditions continue to improve, now characterized by low deep-layer easterly shear, warm ssts and strong poleward and equatorward outflow.

Having completed, or very nearly completed, its traverse across the central Philippine Islands, tropical depression 33W is set to imminently move over the relatively open waters of the northern Sulu Sea. The system is then expected to pass through the Linapacan Strait north of Palawan and emerge into the South China Sea (scs) within the next 12 hours.

Continuing northwestward along the southwestern periphery of the deep str, TD 33S will move into the central scs by 48 hours, where it will begin to slow down and turn more westward to west-southwestward as it moves into a competing steering pattern, trapped between ridging to the east and west and a weakness in the ridge pattern to the north.

After 72 hours, the system slows to a crawl, nearly quasi-stationary, trapped as it will be in the weak and competing steering pattern. Overall, TD 33W is expected to drift slowly northwestward along the coast of Vietnam after 72 hours, but there is significant uncertainty in this portion of the forecast, with a possibility of highly erratic, and looping motion.

The system has slowly intensified over the past six hours, held back as it moved over the rugged terrain a series of islands. Now that it is poised to move back over relatively open waters, the system is primed for a faster pace, potentially even rapid, intensification. Once getting its feet wet again, the system will still need a bit of time to achieve a vertically aligned vortex, but now that the shear has dropped off to just 5-10 knots, this process is expected to be relatively quick.

By the time it moves into the scs, TD 33W will be a weak tropical storm and several models suggest it could undergo a period of ri after 36 hours. The official forecast stops just short of ri, though if the current trend continues, the next forecast may go for it. Regardless, the system only has about 48 hours of good conditions before it slams into a strong northeasterly cold-surge
and very strong (30-35 knots) southerly shear gives it a good whack on the ol noggin.

The rapid increase in shear shortly after 48 hours could even lead to decapitation, but even if it does not, the system will weaken steadily beyond 48 hours. shear looks to decrease again after 96 hours, which will allow the system to at least maintain its intensity after this point, and potentially re-intensify
by the end of the forecast period.

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Fina) – Final Warning