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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, November 1, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 31W (Kalmaegi)…is located 164 NM north of Yap

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Central East Pacific:

>>> Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the Baja California Peninsula remains limited and disorganized.

Development of this system is unlikely as it moves slowly westward across the central part of the eastern Pacific during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 31W (Kalmaegi)

According to the JTWC warning number 4

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical depression 31W (Kalmaegi) with a symmetric central dense overcast (cdo) obscuring the low-level circulation center (llcc). The system is rather compact with the cdo measuring about 190 nm in diameter. A 011122z metop-b ascat image revealed an ill-defined center with primarily 25-30 knot winds. A small patch of 35 kts just northwest of the assessed center was analyzed to likely be rain contaminated,

Environmental analysis continues to indicate that 31W is in a favorable environment characterized by moderate radial outflow aloft, low (5-10 kts) vertical wind shear, and warm (29-30 c) sea surface temperatures.

31W is forecast to track northwestward through 24 hours, along the southwestern periphery of the str. After 24 hours, another str centered southwest of Taiwan will build and extend eastward, causing 31W to track westward as it approaches the Philippines. 31w is forecast to make landfall between 48 and 60 hours near southern Samar and Leyte. The track will then turn more
west-northwestward from 72 hours onward, as the system traverses through the South China Sea.

Regarding intensity, 31W will remain in a favorable environment for further development through landfall. The current forecast calls for rapid intensification (ri) from 12 to 48 hours in response to the very warm sea surface temperatures and high ohc values the system will encounter. The intensification trend will briefly come to a halt as the system tracks through the Visayas, but then will continue as the system tracks through the South China Sea and heads toward Vietnam. Equatorward outflow will greatly improve and sea surface temperatures will remain warm, allowing for intensification through the end of the forecast period.