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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, October 7, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of America
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone Jerry…is located about 1315 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands
Atlantic Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone Jerry
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC…THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON
According to the NHC advisory number 1
Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND SURF:
Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.
Gulf of America: There are no active tropical cyclones
A trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later today, and some slow development is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent