Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:
Tropical Cyclone 27W
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Octave) / Tropical Cyclone 27W / Tropical Cyclone 01B / Invest 90A – Pacific
Wednesday, October 1, 2025
Current Snapshot
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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, October 1, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Octave) is located about 875 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 27W is located about 350 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 01B is located about 387 NM south-southwest of Kolkata, India
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Octave)
OCTAVE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
According to the NHC advisory number 8
Octave is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
Offshore of the southwestern Coast of Mexico:
>>> A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Friday night or over the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward, remaining parallel to but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical depression 27W with fragmented banding and flaring convection
obscuring the low-level circulation center (llcc). A 010457z amsr2 89 ghz microwave image showed the improved convective banding within the northern and southwestern peripheries of the system.
obscuring the low-level circulation center (llcc). A 010457z amsr2 89 ghz microwave image showed the improved convective banding within the northern and southwestern peripheries of the system.
Environmental analysis indicates that 27W is in a favorable environment characterized by moderate poleward and equatorward outflow, low (5-10 kts) vertical wind shear, and warm (29-30 c) sea surface temperatures.
27W is forecast to track west-northwestward, under the influence of the building subtropical ridge to the north throughout the entire forecast period. An initial landfall is currently forecast to occur between 36 and 48 hours, along the southeastern portion of the Cagayan Province. A second landfall is then forecast to occur around 96 hours, near the Leizhou Peninsula.
Regarding intensity, 27W is forecast to marginally intensify over the next 12 hours as the wind field continues to consolidate. After 12 hours, a rapid, or near-rapid rate of intensification is expected as shear remains very low and the poleward outflow channel improves. A borderline typhoon strength system is forecast to make landfall within northeastern Luzon.
A brief period of stagnation in the intensity trend is expected as the system tracks along northern Luzon. Another period of intensification is forecast as 27W traverses through the South China Sea in response to the favorable environment in the area. A peak intensity will likely occur near 84 hours, which is not captured by the forecast due to temporal restrictions. After making landfall in southern China, terrain interaction will rapidly deteriorate the vortex.
Tropical Cyclone 01B
According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots
Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery shows northeasterly shear shoving the deep convection away from the low level circulation center (llcc), impeding development of TC 01B. The scatterometry shows a lop-sided system with all the windfields exceeding 30 knots lying over only the southern semicircle.
The upstream environment between the system and the coast is moderately more favorable. Current steering mechanism: a mid and upper level extension over the eastern Bay of Bengal is forcing the system towards the Indian coast.Tropical cyclone 01B will track through an area of slightly warmer waters and lower wind shear to the north, keeping the system viable through landfall. It is expected to come ashore south of Brahmapur, near Palasa. Wind fields will remain unbalanced, with no gale force easterlies likely over the poleward semicircle.
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90A, which is located approximately 195 NM south-southeast of Karachi
Animated enhanced infrared imagery (eir) depicts a partially exposed low level circulation center slowly consolidating and becoming embedded within flaring convection.
Environmental analysis shows favorable conditions for development with low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots), good equatorward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures (27-28 c).
Models are in good general agreement on steady development over the next 48 hours. The system is expected to have very slow track speeds and possible erratic motion over the next 24-48 hours due to the placement between ridging to both the
east and west.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.