By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, September 12, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Tropical Cyclone 13E (Mario) is located about 65 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone 13E (Mario)
MARIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT STARTS MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
According to the NHC advisory number 6
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several hours. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast later tonight through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Mario should gradually move away from the coast of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday night, and Mario is forecast to dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Mario will lead to rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of 6 inches, across southern Mexico through Sunday. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Michoacan today. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along coastal portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight.
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones
Western Pacific
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 153 NM east-southeast of Legazp
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 88 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
South Indian Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 338 NM west-northwest of Cocos Islands
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) does not depict a definable low level circulation center (llcc) for invest 93s, only a very broad and ill-defined rotation with convection being sheared to the southern periphery. A 112122z ssmis 91ghz microwave image depicted an ill-defined and elongated rotation displaced to the northeast of a patch of disorganized convection.
Environmental analysis reveals marginal to favorable environment for development with low to moderate vertical wind shear (20-25 knots), strong upper level equatorward outflow and
warm (27-28 c) sea surface temperature.
Deterministic models have rapidly backed off on development over the last couple runs, with no models showing significant development within the next 24 hours. However, ensemble models are continuing to depict a modest amount of development during the same time window. Both global and ensemble guidance agree on a west-southwestward track over the next 24-36 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 22 to 28 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.