Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Peipah)
Tropical Cyclone 11E (Kiko) / Tropical Cyclone 12E (Lorena) / Tropical Cyclone 21W (Peipah) – Pacific
Wednesday, September 3, 2025
Current Snapshot
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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, September 3, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 11E (Kiko) is located about 1560 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii
Tropical Cyclone 12E (Lorena) is located about 210 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Peipah) is located about 216 miles south-southeast of Sasebo, Japan
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone 11E (Kiko)
KIKO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
According to the NHC advisory number 16
Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Friday, with a gradual increase in forward speed expected over the weekend as Kiko approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday, followed by gradual weakening over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.
Tropical Cyclone 12E (Lorena)
LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY…RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA
According to the NHC advisory number 9
Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph, and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Thursday and continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through Thursday, approach the coast of Baja California Sur Thursday night, and move inland over the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to begin weakening quickly and become a tropical storm on Thursday. Lorena is likely to degenerate into a remnant low near or over the Baja California peninsula by early Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southeastern Baja California and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora through Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.
Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 4 inches, are expected from the Mexico states of Sinaloa northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning tonight and will spread northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur through Thursday and into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area south of Santa Fe through tonight, and in the watch area on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula Friday into Friday night.
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is likely along the coast of Baja California Sur near and to the right of where Lorena makes landfall.
SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central Pacific basin Friday night.
The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Hurricane Lorena, located in the East Pacific basin just off the west coast of Baja California Sur.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
According to the JTWC warning number 3, sustained winds are 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots
Tropical depression 21W is located within a wide swath of upper-level southerly winds between an upper-low to the southwest and an anticyclone near 30n 135e. As a result, there is a tight gradient of low to high (15 to 25 knots) vertical wind shear straddling the system. However, poleward outflow remains robust, with expanding equatorward outflow over the southern semicircle.
As indicated in animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery, this has allowed the system to slowly consolidate, with deep convective banding wrapping from the eastern semicircle into the northwest quadrant. EIR imagery shows a partially exposed low-level circulation center along the southern edge of the core convection, which supports the initial position with medium confidence.
TD 21W is forecast to track northward through 24 hours along the western periphery of the str, with steady intensification to a peak intensity of 40 knots at 24 hours. After 24 hours, the system will recurve around the northwestern periphery of the str on a generally east-northeastward trajectory.
TD 21W is expected to weaken slightly as it tracks across Japan but is forecast to maintain tropical storm strength winds over the eastern and southeastern quadrants. Near 48 hours, the system will commence extra-tropical transition (ett) as a major shortwave trough digs over central Japan, with jet strength winds over central Honshu supporting a developing front.
Global models indicate an increasingly complex synoptic pattern developing near 48 hours, with a deep low pressure area forming northeast of Tokyo and expansive region of gale force winds east of Japan. TD 21W is expected to get absorbed into
this midlatitude low or along the frontal boundary by 72 hours,
completing ett. The 34-knot wind radii expands rapidly at 72 hours due to the formation of the strong mid-latitude low and frontal system.
this midlatitude low or along the frontal boundary by 72 hours,
completing ett. The 34-knot wind radii expands rapidly at 72 hours due to the formation of the strong mid-latitude low and frontal system.