Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, August 20, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18W is located approximately 71 NM south-southwest of Sasebo, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

South of Southwestern Mexico:

>>> An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Lingling)

According to the JTWC warning number 8, sustained winds are 40 knots, with gusts to near 50 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a partially-exposed low-level circulation (llc), with flaring deep convection. The initial position is supported by the 200708z ssmis 91ghz  microwave image, which reveals a defined llc positioned just southwest of a small region of disorganized deep convection. Environmental conditions are marginal, with fair outflow offset by dry air entrainment.

Tropical depression 18W is forecast to  track north-northeastward to northeastward through the forecast period as it rounds the northwestern periphery of the str. Upper-level conditions have improved steadily over the past day as the system tracked away from an upper-level low near Taiwan, with improved equatorward outflow evident in the animated water vapor rgb imagery.

Additionally, eastward outflow has maintained. However, dry air entrainment through the column has continued to hinder any significant consolidation. There is a very short window for slight intensification to 35 knots over the next 12 hours until vertical wind shear increases to high (25-40 knots) levels and dry air overwhelms the system.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 339 NM east of Manila, Philippines

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a broad, highly disorganized tropical wave like feature with flaring convection along the southern periphery of the low level circulation. Furthermore, a 210053z ascat metop-c 25km pass further emphasizes the broad nature of the system as it approaches the eastern coast of Luzon, Philippines. The ascat data as well as later msi suggests that the system may be starting to close-off into a closed circulation, though one that remains very broad.

Environmental analysis reveals a moderately favorable environment for development with low to moderate (15-20 knots) northerly vertical wind shear, moderate dual-channel outflow, and warm (29-30 c) sea surface temperatures.

Deterministic and ensemble models are in agreement on a westward track over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.