Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, August 19, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18W is located approximately 251 NM south-southwest of Sasebo, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Tropical Cyclone 18W

According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds are 30 knots, with gusts to near 40 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a partially-exposed low-level circulation center (llcc), with a region of symmetric, intense convection persisting over the northwest quadrant. Animated radar imagery shows multiple convective bands over the eastern semicircle wrapping into the northwest quadrant.

An 181156z ascat-b image depicts a symmetric, well-defined circulation, with 25-30 knot winds over the eastern semi-circle, which supports the initial intensity of 30 knots and initial position with high confidence. animated water vapor imagery shows expanding poleward venting over the northern and eastern quadrants, with convergent upper-level flow persisting over the southwestern semicircle associated with a quasi-stationary upper-level low centered just east of Taiwan. Extensive dry air is present over the southwestern quadrant of the system limiting convective development over this region.

Tropical depression 18W will track northward to north-northeastward through 36 hours along the western periphery of the str. Modest intensification to a peak intensity of 35 knots is anticipated as the core moistens briefly and the system moves away from the upper-level low near Taiwan.

After 36 hours, TD 18W will recurve around the northwestern periphery of the str and weaken quickly due to increasing easterly flow and high (40-45 knots) vertical wind shear associated with a strong high situated over the Korean Peninsula. Additionally, extensive dry air will prevail across the Korean Strait and western Japan, which will lead to dissipation by 72 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 672 NM east of Manila, Philippines

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a wave like feature with flaring convection and mid-level cyclonic turning.

Environmental analysis reveals a marginal environment for development with low vertical wind shear (vws) of 5-15 knots, weak upper-level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures
of (sst) of 30-31 c.

Environmental conditions are assessed to be moderately favorable with good equatorward outflow and very warm (30-31c) ssts and low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear.

Deterministic and ensembles are in poor agreement on development but show confidence on a northwestward track toward Luzon, Philippines.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.