Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, July 28, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Iona)…is located about 810 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 02C (Keli)…is located about 1030 miles southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Co-may)…is located 181 NM west-northwest of Kadena AB

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Krosa)…is located 234 NM north-northeast of Iwo To

Northeast Pacific Ocean:  There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western East Pacific:

Invest 98E

>>> The area of low pressure located around 1500 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has changed little since earlier today. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form during the next day or two as it moves generally westward around 10 mph and enters the Central Pacific basin around midweek.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent 
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

South of Southwestern Mexico:

Invest 99E

>>> A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Central East Pacific:

>>> An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the central East Pacific, several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Iona)

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Co-may) 

According to the JTWC warning number 25 sustained winds are 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a broad and elongated low-level circulation center tracking northwestward along the low-level flow of a subtropical ridge to the north. Flaring convection within the outer bands of the tropical depression 11W. An earlier microwave image reveals the shallow nature of the circulation with minimal convection except along the outer bands. Water vapor imagery reveals an upper-level cyclone to the northwest enhancing the marginal outflow poleward.

TS 11W will continue to be driven northwestward under the weak steering influence of the subtropical ridge to the north for the next 24 hours. After 24 hours, the system will curve northward while rounding the southwestern quadrant of the ridge. After 96 hours, the system will curve northeastward on the low-level flow as a dissipated system.

TS 11W will remain in a marginal environment for development for the first 12 hours of the forecast period due to moderate vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment from the upper-level cyclone to the northwest. Vertical wind shear will decrease favorably after 24 hours, allowing for gradual re-intensification as the cyclone drifts westward and becomes weak. the system will continue to intensify under a marginally favorable environment to a peak of 40 knots by 48 hours.

The system will make landfall between 48-72 hours, initiating a dissipation due to topographic interaction. After 96 hours, the system will pass into the Yellow Sea, but strong vertical wind shear and an upper-level trough aloft will inhibit redevelopment.

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Krosa)

According to the JTWC warning number 22 sustained winds are 50 knots with gusts to near 65 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts spiral cloud bands and flaring convection wrapping into a low-level circulation center (llcc) over tropical storm 12W. The llcc has become broad as the system has weakened over the last six hours.

TS 12W will continue tracking northwestward weakly through 12 hours while remaining in a competing steering environment. After 12 hours, the ridge to the northwest builds, slowing the track speed significantly. As a result, TS 12W is expected to track irregularly in a quasi-stationary period.

The northwestern ridge will gradually weaken after 72 hours, and the
southeastern ridge will track TS 12W north-northeastward through the remainder of the forecast period. Dry air to the northwest associated with the deep-layer ridge and significant upwelling will continue to entrain into the llcc for the next 72 hours.

The system will move into warmer waters after 72 hours, resulting in slight re-intensification in a marginal environment with moderate vertical wind shear and marginal upper-level divergence to a peak of 60 knots.