Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, June 4, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones

Northeast Pacific Ocean:  There are no Tropical Cyclones

South of Southern Mexico

>>>  A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:  There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific

There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92W, which is located approximately 104 NM west of Yap.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a slowly consolidating ragged deep convective banding obscuring the low-level circulation center.

Environmental analysis reveals a moderate to favorable environment with low vertical wind shear (vws) of 10-15 knots, moderate equator outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement revealing gradual development over the next few days. The model guidance between gfs and ecmwf indicate varying timelines of development.

However, 92W is likely to develop in the near term despite a tutt cell inducing the
10-15 knot vertical wind shear from the north, while the tutt also favorably enhances outflow poleward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.