What happened and why it matters today

Two decades have passed since one of the deadliest natural disasters in recorded history claimed the lives of 228,000 people across 14 countries. For a younger generation, there’s little awareness of the colossal 9.1 magnitude earthquake that struck off the western coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, unleashing the deadliest tsunami in recorded history and reducing coastal cities to ruin. But for those alive to witness the tragic events of December 26, 2004, it is forever etched into memory.

Towering waves, some reaching heights of 160 feet, raced across the ocean at speeds of up to 300 miles per hour. Those near the epicenter of the quake had no chance to escape. Tragically, the destruction extended far beyond the initial impact zone, with coastal communities as far away as Africa—over 1,800 miles (3,000 kilometers) from the epicenter—caught off-guard.

The world was left in shock, grappling with how a catastrophe of this magnitude could occur and why so many perished even in places where there was plenty of time to evacuate.

The staggering loss of life and destruction that resulted from the tsunami sparked one of the largest cross-border humanitarian relief efforts in history, bringing together national governments, international and nongovernmental organizations (I/NGOs), and communities from around the world to aid in the response.

Photo: Humanitarian workers attempt to sort tons of humanitarian aid in Bangkok, Thailand following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Processes for receiving the correct types of aid and distributing goods were not well established at the time. Credit: Todd Bosse, Pacific Disaster Center

Recalling the tragedy, Ray Shirkhodai, Executive Director of the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), headquartered on the island of Maui in Hawai’i, said, “I was literally on the plane to go for a family reunion on the Big Island, and when I landed, I had three voicemails already. There was a big earthquake. Possibly a tsunami. I said, just make sure that the systems are running.

I remember it vividly because as we checked into the hotel, one of my boys turned on the TV, and before we set our suitcases down, the first footage of the waves reaching the shores of Aceh, Indonesia was being broadcast. I knew then this would be a dramatic disaster ahead of us.”

Shirkhodai led the organization’s frontline response to the 2004 tsunami. Working around the clock, the small applied science and technology center managed by the University of Hawai’i helped field requests from the humanitarian community and its regional contacts. Among those in immediate need of support were the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM), Mercy Corps, World Health Organization, U.S. military, and numerous other government agencies participating in the response.

In the earliest hours after the tsunami waves reached the shores of Aceh and elsewhere in Southeast Asia, a few ACDM members requested early warning alerts from PDC. Fearing risks of resonating waves during search and rescue, they wanted to protect the safety of humanitarian teams that were being deployed to coastal shorelines. PDC quickly added the organization to its hazard notification lists.

“What we had at the time was a framework and a working version of our multi-hazard system. We were processing tsunami warnings and modeling how long it would take for waves to propagate to a given location,” explained Shirkhodai.

PDC’s unique geospatial information technology and analytical capabilities were heavily leveraged by responders from that point forward to inform logistics, quantify impacts, and coordinate humanitarian assistance and disaster relief efforts across multiple countries.

PDC’s advanced capabilities highlighted for the world how web-based technologies could reliably inform disaster management decision-makers with early warning as well as enhance the coordination of humanitarian assistance.

The Center was one of the earliest advocates and pioneers of a multi-hazard early warning system and developed its web-based map viewer to help authorities better monitor and be aware of different kinds of hazards, plan relief efforts, and share critical information.

“PDC’s mission has always been rooted in science and technology for disaster risk reduction. We were immediately engaged, ensuring that the systems were up and running and could serve those who needed it the most. We knew the military, from a logistics perspective, delivering aid at that scale—to many different nations—was going to be involved. So, we worked very closely with the Pacific Command (PACOM) at the time, to identify: What location was most impacted? Where would the bulk of the aid be needed? And simple things like, are there roads and bridges washed out? How do you deliver aid to the area?”

Pictured above and below: PDC supports civil-military coordination of humanitarian aid and damage assessment from its Hawai’i offices immediately following impact of the M9.1 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. The Center leveraged high-resolution satellite imagery available at the time from U.S. government partners. Credit: Pacific Disaster Center

Web-based technology was critical to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami response

Shown below is the earliest iteration of PDC’s DisasterAWARE utilized for hazard warnings, search and rescue, and damage and needs assessments following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. The system also helped agencies collaborate and share information to better inform humanitarian relief efforts across multiple countries.

Shortfalls in early warning and preparedness

As the initial shock of the tsunami wore off, it was replaced with questions surrounding the death toll, the effectiveness of early warning, and community preparedness. After all, by 2004, early warning technologies existed and disaster management systems had been established in many of the impacted countries.

“In 2004, the general convention was, well, if you have a system that could detect a hazard then we’ve solved the problem. No. That’s just the beginning,” said Shirkhodai. He explained that the global recognition of what it took to act on early warning information was not well ingrained into disaster management organizations at the time.

“Actually, at that point in time, it is well documented that the same warning that that we received and processed by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center before the wave reached the shores, was distributed to the regional disaster management organizations. How? It was a fax.”

“So, literally, a paper fax was sent to these organizations saying, hey, there might be a tsunami coming,” said Shirkhodai.

“Now, it was unfortunate because depending on the time of day, whether there was a holiday, there may or may not even be someone at the office to see the notification.”

From a monitoring and institutional perspective, even though there were means to deliver warnings to the government at that time, the technology was not advanced enough to accommodate last mile delivery, even if the governments at the end received those warnings.

PDC’s web-based application was one of the very few sophisticated technologies at that time using the internet to deliver and receive information downrange in disaster impact areas to help coordinate large-scale response and search and rescue activities. People could readily collaborate on the platform, receive information as well as markup maps and share them with their partners. It was one of the first real efforts by the Center to transition out of paper maps and deliver information in real-time to facilitate collaboration.

“Remember, the tsunami happened in 2004, so internet access was not as widely available. And dissemination of that information through the web, particularly for disaster management, was being questioned given its speed and unreliability at the time.”

It turns out, web technologies weren’t only of value, but a critical tool in an environment where catastrophic damage to infrastructure limited connectivity. With PDC’s web-based app and its satellite communication kit, information could be transmitted in real-time from Indonesia and Thailand where PDC staff were stationed on the ground.

PDC remained focused on building long-term early warning capabilities using similar technologies in both countries and within the larger ASEAN region over the next two decades.

“Our engagement with ASEAN started in April of 2004, and this is about eight months before the tsunami when ASEAN launched their Regional Program for Disaster Risk Management (APDRM). One of the areas that we immediately identified for collaboration, within that very same meeting, was how to strengthen internet-based applications for ASEAN so that they could build an information technology infrastructure sufficient to actually take advantage of this new technology. We presented a roadmap to ACDM in Phenom Phen, Cambodia, in November.  And, of course, the tsunami that happened two or three weeks later essentially expedited that collaboration,” said PDC’s Shirkhodai.

PDC’s early collaboration with ASEAN on disaster management dates back to April 2004, when it participated in the launch of the ASEAN Regional Programme on Disaster Management. Credit: Pacific Disaster Center

A global movement to improve lifesaving early warning

The tsunami’s aftermath revealed major gaps in global preparedness and response mechanisms worldwide. These shortcomings helped catalyze a global movement to improve preparedness, enhance early warning systems, and reduce the loss of life from future disasters. Only one year later, in 2005, the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) was ratified by 168 countries who agreed in solidarity to reduce disaster risks globally and build greater resilience.

Tsunami monitoring buoy. Credit: Thailand.go.th

These efforts included collaboration between the U.S., Japan, Australia, India, Germany, and a cadre of international and regional organizations including UNESCO and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to establish the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System, which included the installation of several buoys across the region to monitor tsunami waves. This system became officially operational in 2006 and included a network of seismic stations, sea-level monitoring stations, and Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, designed to detect and evaluate tsunamis in real-time.

PDC was a key player in this international effort, working with the governments of Thailand and Indonesia, and the AHA Centre to build a new multi-hazard early warning capacity that could integrate warnings from this new tsunami monitoring capability.

Pacific Disaster Center participates in the international movement to improve warning systems. Credit: Pacific Disaster Center

“The work we’ve done since the tsunami in the region included a lot of work directly with ASEAN, including helping to establish the Asean Humanitarian Assistance and Coordination Center. We helped them develop the ICT Information Communication Technology plan and even physical layout for what an operations center would look like,” said PDC’s Director of Early Warning Systems, Chris Chiesa.

“One of the things that we did with the government of Thailand when the first version of DisasterAWARE was deployed there, was to connect the notifications to their siren network. We initially integrated about 60 tsunami warning sirens along all the coastlines. Within seconds of receiving an alert, sirens on the beach would sound,” explained Chiesa, who participated in PDC’s first remote deployment of its DisasterAWARE platform at the National Disaster Warning Center in Bangkok in 2006.

“Clearly, one of the lessons learned globally by the international community as a result of the tsunami was the need to improve early warning capacities, capabilities, and resources for citizens, as well as preparedness. If I give you a warning, do you know what to do with that warning?”

Thousands of residents and tourists perished in Thailand, unaware of the signs of tsunami. Credit: AFP

Chiesa recalled the situation in Thailand, where thousands of vacationers on winter holiday didn’t receive a warning and didn’t recognize the classic signs of a tsunami as the ocean receded from the beach.

Within a year of the tragedy, PDC and its partners helped Thailand deploy ThaiAWARE, a custom version of the Center’s DisasterAWARE platform, which included multi-lingual support. They also helped the government develop a concept of operations to institutionalize the use of the early warning system nationally. The success of the partnership and the new capabilities immediately spawned similar requests from Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines as well as the regional AHA Centre.

Chiesa described it as a turning point in PDC’s trajectory—transforming PDC from a locally-focused organization into an international leader for multi-hazard early warning.

“It’s fair to say that the work that we’ve done in the region in the 20 years since the Indian Ocean tsunami, has saved lives. How many? Nobody knows, but with the early warning capabilities that have been deployed all throughout that region, lives have been saved,” added Chiesa.

“I think our biggest success story and contribution in the region has been working with ASEAN, particularly the AHA Centre. In that association, the most advanced nations are helping build capacities internally for the less developed nations. That gives a continuum to our engagement above and beyond just an early warning system,” said Shirkhodai.

Shirkhodai, a key visionary of the Center’s global, multi-hazard early warning platform, has led decades of ongoing collaboration with ASEAN and the AHA Centre.

Half the world’s population lacks early warning as of 2024

Despite the many advances in early warning systems and community preparedness measures implemented since 2004, multi-hazard early warning systems are still out of reach for the majority of the world’s population more than two decades later. Additional challenges exist with continued maintenance of existing systems.

According to a recent study by the U.N. World Meteorological Organization (WMO), only 38 percent of countries have comprehensive multi-hazard monitoring, observation, and forecasting systems. Furthermore, these technologies are heavily dependent on local capacities, public awareness, communications, and information technology infrastructure.

Globally, developing nations face major challenges with the costs of supporting these systems as well as integrating them into comprehensive disaster management plans to ensure timely alerts to vulnerable populations reach the last mile.

A new international initiative known as “Early Warning for All” was spearheaded by the U.N. WMO in 2022 to help build international support to fill the remaining gaps and to ensure everyone on Earth is protected by early warnings by 2027. The focus remains on vulnerable communities that are disproportionately affected by hazards such as tropical storms, floods, heatwaves, tsunamis, and others.

Hurricane Eta aftermath in Planeta, Honduras. Credit: Delmer Martinez

Shirkhodai described some of the difficulties of scaling global early warnings within smaller geographies where traditionally low-impact events can be catastrophic for small island nations.

“I think it’s a worthy goal to go after,” said PDC’s Ray Shirkhodai when asked about the feasibility of the ambitious 2027 goal. “Can we cover the globe? From a technology perspective, it absolutely is feasible. But the issue is not only the technical capacity to host a system, but the cost of operating it and the cost of getting satellite imagery. Can the necessary resources be acquired, whether it’s data or the technical expertise, to maintain that system? Where do you get the budget or the funding if you’re a small nation?”

The promise of a safer world

PDC’s enduring, 30-year commitment to cover the globe with early warning can be observed in the Center’s award-winning technological innovations as well as its latest experimental developments.

“Our work with various partners to close the global early warning gap has only grown stronger over time.

The latest innovations we’ve released to more uniformly detect hazards such as floods, wildfires, and landslides around the globe where early warnings may not exist, are unlike anything available elsewhere today. Thanks to the help of our partners at NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey, we are able to leverage satellite and remote sensing technologies as well as advanced modeling capabilities to anticipate these hazards worldwide,” said Shirkhodai.

“We are also exploring practical applications of artificial intelligence through our AI for Humanity program. AI is helping us scale and automate the creation of early warning information to reach more people. Our latest work involves experimentation with Large Language Models, which can help quickly locate potential hazards and assess the severity of the hazard. And depending on your location, age, and other factors associated with your profile, we are experimenting with providing customized advice about what to do,” he added.

Under its AI for Humanity program, PDC is also exploring ways to make early warning even more accessible to vulnerable populations. Using text-to-speech conversions (and vice versa), PDC hopes to create a two-way conversational mode with expert chatbots that can interact with the public—particularly those with special needs who may have reduced motor skills or vision impairments.

“Currently, we’re covering over 28 different hazard types, and we’re doing that around the world, even in data-poor areas,” said PDC’s Deputy Executive Director Dr. Erin Hughey who has been instrumental in operationalizing experimental technologies developed by the Center.

PDC’s free Disaster Alert app covers major hazards, including man-made and natural hazards, happening all around the globe.

“We’re doing that in a couple of ways: The first is through PDC’s Disaster Alert mobile app. It’s a free app we provide to inform the public about what hazards are happening around the globe.

We’re also continually building new capabilities into our DisasterAWARE platform, like our PDC Event Brief for disaster managers to identify information about the population exposed to hazards. And, of that population, we’re able to quickly quantify how many vulnerable. Event Brief is helping emergency managers around the world to target response. No longer do they have to analyze how many people are in a community and what the community breakdown is. It’s provided to them within minutes, in their hands. So now they just need to decide where to mobilize the resources,” emphasized Hughey.

Pictured above: PDC’s Event Brief is powered by the Center’s big data processing, modeling, and analytical backbone.
Pictured below: Anticipatory risk products for short- and long-term planning.