Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – AM – Pacific / Indian Oceans
Tropical cyclone 10E (Jova) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 220 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Strengthening major hurricane…125 mph sustained winds)
Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 745 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Tropical storm…40 mph sustained winds)
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 10E (Jova)
NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
PDC Global Hazards Atlas
Tropical Cyclone 11E (Irwin)
NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
PDC Global Hazards Atlas
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11AM PDT MON OCTOBER 10, 2011
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 745 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map
Latest eastern Pacific IR satellite image
Central North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180:
800 AM HST MON OCTOBER 10 2011
No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday morning
Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image
Latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Western North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
South Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – PM – Pacific / Indian Oceans
Tropical cyclone 10E (Jova) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 490 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Strengthening tropical storm…65 mph sustained winds)
Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 960 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Strengthening hurricane…90 mph sustained winds)
Hawaii Weather Overview
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT: The trade winds are being driven by a moderately strong high pressure system far to the northeast of the islands. This high is located well over half way towards the California coast, although it has an associated ridge of high pressure extending west-southwest back to a point around 30 degrees north latitude...to the north of our islands. These moderately strong trade winds will hold steady through the weekend, into the first several days of the new week ahead. There's a chance that some change in our wind speeds and directions could occur beginning during the second half of next week.
Showers will continue to be drawn over the windward sides of the islands, as showery clouds get carried our way on the trade wind flow. We've seen a few showers being carried all the way over into the leeward sides on the smaller islands. The clouds upstream of the islands look fairly normal at this time, so there doesn't appear to be anything unusual on tap in terms of our precipitation through the next 5-6 days. Towards the second half of the upcoming new work week, around next Thursday or Friday, the models are suggesting that we may see some changes coming our way...stay tuned.
Special Weather Summary
Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones Jova and Irwin
The eastern north Pacific continues to be very active at the moment, with a hurricane, a tropical storm, and an area under investigation, with a moderate 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone...all happening within a fairly small area of the ocean.
Hurricane Irwin: Irwin is the farthest west of these three tropical systems, near 14N and 122W. The current sustained winds near the center are 92 mph, with gusts to 115 mph. The NHC forecast has this tropical cyclone remaining at the hurricane level through the middle of the new week ahead. Rather than heading towards the west or north, as if often the case, this hurricane veers around towards the east, as it moves towards mainland Mexico, well to the south of the southern tip of Baja, California.
NOAA satellite image of Irwin
UW-CIMSS TCTRAK /Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery - showing latitude, longitude and wind speed in knots
Weather Underground computer forecast models for Irwin
Tropical Storm Jova: Jova is involved in a somewhat unfavorable environment for strengthening, although this is expected to change later Saturday, at which point a rapid intensification could take place. The sustained winds at the time of this writing were still in the tropical storm category, blowing 65 mph, with gusts to near 75 mph. The NHC forecast brings Jova to a hurricane by late Saturday morning. This storm is forecast to become a major hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast this coming Monday night.
NOAA satellite image of Jova
UW-CIMSS TCTRAK / /Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery - showing latitude, longitude and wind speed in knots
Weather Underground computer forecast models for Jova
Invest 99E: This tropical disturbance has formed a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next two days. If this disturbance were to strengthen into a tropical depression, it would be given the number 12E, and if further development took place...given the name Kenneth.
NHC placement of this disturbance, orange circled area
NOAA satellite image of 99E
Weather Underground computer forecast models for 99E
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – AM – Pacific / Indian Oceans
Tropical cyclone 10E (Jova) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 535 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Strengthening tropical storm…60 mph sustained winds)
Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 925 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Strengthening hurricane…85 mph sustained winds)
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 10E (Jova)
NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
PDC Global Hazards Atlas
Tropical Cyclone 11E (Irwin)
NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
PDC Global Hazards Atlas
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11AM PDT FRI OCTOBER 7, 2011
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 535 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND ON HURRICANE IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map
Latest eastern Pacific IR satellite image
Central North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180:
800 AM HST FRI OCTOBER 7 2011
No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday morning
Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image
Latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Western North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
South Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 17L (Philippe) is active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 575 miles east-southeast of Bermuda (Hurricane...sustained winds of 85 mph)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI October 7 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map
Atlantic Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)
NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
Global Hazards Atlas
NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic
Caribbean Sea
There are no active tropical cyclones
NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – PM – Pacific / Indian Oceans
Tropical cyclone 10E (Jova) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 490 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Tropical storm…45 mph sustained winds)
Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 885 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Strengthening tropical storm…58 mph sustained winds)
Hawaii Weather Overview
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT: The trade winds remain our major weather element, although the high surf along our leeward beaches have been giving our locally gusty winds a run for their money in this regard. A full bodied 1026 millibar high pressure system remains more or less parked to our north-northeast. This trade wind producing high pressure center will gradually be shifting eastward, and as it does...our local winds will slack-off slightly through the next 4-5 days. The small craft wind advisories, which we've in place around Maui County and the Big Island most of this week, have been dropped now, in anticipation of these slightly lighter trades.
In the rain department, there will continue to be those occasional showers. This will as usual, focus their efforts most effectively along our north and east facing windward coasts and slopes. Local radar shows that there have been a few showers sporting medium intensities, although these have remained offshore to the south of the islands. The rather extensive high cirrus clouds of late, continue to spread over the islands. These icy clouds don't drop rain over our islands, or over the surrounding ocean either, although they certainly dim our sunshine during the days. The up side of this however is the colorful sunrise and sunset colors.
Looking into next week, after finishing off this week in a rather pleasant way, we find some possible changes around next Thursday. The GFS forecast model shows a cold front extending down into the subtropics to our northwest. Then, around the middle of next week a low pressure system forms along the tail-end of this frontal boundary. It's still too early to know exactly what changes may result in our local weather then, although perhaps a week from today...we could see the possibility of some showers arriving around Friday into the weekend.
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 17L (Philippe) is active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 425 miles southeast of Bermuda (Hurricane...sustained winds of 80 mph)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THUR October 6 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map
Atlantic Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)
NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA Satellite image
Global Hazards Atlas
NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic
Caribbean Sea
There are no active tropical cyclones
NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – AM – Pacific / Indian Oceans
Tropical cyclone 10E is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 540 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Tropical depression…35 mph sustained winds)
Tropical cyclone 11E (Irwin) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 885 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Tropical storm…40 mph sustained winds)
What our partners are saying about us...
Title | Address | Description |
---|---|---|
Kenta Hamasaki | Honolulu, HI, USA | THE CONSULATE GENERAL OF JAPAN, HONOLULU, HI (2016) "Aloha Julie. Hello. After the registration [for DisasterAWARE], I started to receive warnings such as Typhoon Meranti. That data contains necessary info and is so graphic that it's easy to know at a glance how the impact is. This is very important for our duties. Thank you again." |
Paulo Bayly | Fiji | PERMANENT SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE & TRANSPORT, FIJI (2016) "Thank you and your team for so quickly responding to our needs." |
Ana Ake | Tonga | MINISTRY OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS, KINGDOM OF TONGA (2017) "I was first introduced to EMOPS (DisasterAWARE)...during a HA/DR training in Auckland this year. I've worked with several tools and it is obvious that EMOPS is the only sustainable tool that is available and is openly available." |
Jonathan Colwell | California, USA | GOESPATIAL COORDINATOR, DHS-FEMA REGION 9 (2016) "EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) made my day so much easier while monitoring [Tropical Cyclone] AMOS. Data that I thought I'd spend a good part of the morning digging for was available, as were the tools to draw polygons and annotate and meet the requirement." |
John Andoe | Texas, USA | EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATOR, TEXAS HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (2017) “Keep up the good work. I'm using EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) in Texas to monitor Hurricane Harvey.” |
Matt Lott | Virginia, USA | EMERGENCY COORDINATOR OF SAFETY, SECURITY AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (2016) "I work for the Virginia DOT as an emergency planner. I would like to be added to your distribution list for awareness products. I followed work during Hurricane Mathew and would like to avail our organization of your great products." |
USDA Foreign Agriculture Service officer | Washington, DC, USA | USDA (2016) "Your suggestion that we look at PDC content and capabilities has really paid off. We partnered with them, and are ingesting their global disaster feeds into [Global Agricultural & Disaster Assessment System] GADAS. The addition of a couple of our own applications to quickly delineate impacted areas and extract agricultural acreage and population has proved quite valuable." |
Christopher Vaughan | 500 C St SW, Washington, DC 20024, USA | FEMA NATIONAL HEADQUARTERS GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION OFFICER (2015) "My sincerest thanks to the PDC team during this event. [Tropical Cyclone Dolphin] Your professionalism and dedication to the mission is to be commended. I'm sure we will have plenty to discuss/improve upon in the weeks to follow. Thanks again for all the support. Great job team." |
Daniel B. Whitley | 1400 Independence Ave SW #5071, Washington, DC 20250, USA | ACTING ASSOCIATE ADMINISTRATOR, FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE (2017) "On behalf of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Services, I would like to express my appreciation and full support of the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) for its essential contributions...with data and support...we've been able to improve our global agricultural production and disaster assessment analyses, products, and decision outcomes." |
Jesse Rozelle | 500 C St SW, Washington, DC 20024, USA | PROGRAM MANAGER, NATURAL HAZARDS RISK ASSESSMENT PROGRAM, FEMA (2017) "Aloha PDC team: I wanted to express my sincere gratitude for all of your support during Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The modeling and risk assessment support you have provided to FEMA has been incredibly helpful for our response efforts and our emergency management partners. I'm looking forward to a continued partnership." |
Lisa Samson on PDC products during hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria | Miami, FL, USA | ASSISTANT DEPUTY DIRECTOR, EXERCISES & COALITION AFFAIRS, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2017) "[I] wanted to pass along that the reports that PDC is generating are succinct and extremely informative. I've passed along to other colleagues in the HQs staff and other COCOMs to peak their interest. Well done!" |
William I. Clark | 9301 NW 33rd St, Doral, FL 33178, USA | HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE DIVISION CHIEF, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2017) "Our success during response efforts is directly related to PDC's contribution. The set of tools offered by your decision support system (DisasterAWARE), the large amount of data, the modeling and assessments, and skill set of your staff are unique. They provide my team with great situational awareness in a timely manner, enabling rapid and informed decision making in critical periods." |
Brian Abbott | Doral, FL, USA | LIEUTENANT COLONEL, PUBLIC-PRIVATE COOPERATION PROGRAM COORDINATOR, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2016) "As a Public-Private Cooperation (PPC) Program Coordinator, PDC's vision and leadership translates into strategies that enable others to effectively achieve results." |
Gayle Outten-Moncour | The Bahamas | BAHAMAS DISASTER RECOVERY MANAGER AND FIRST ASSISTANT SECRETARY |
Jeremy K. Delancy | Nassau, The Bahamas | SENIOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF SOCIAL SERVICES & COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT, COMMONWEALTH OF THE BAHAMAS (2016) "I wanted [PDC] to know that I used DisasterAWARE during Hurricane Joaquin and it performed admirably. Some further training will be needed for us to use it to its full capabilities. One of the persons who was quite impressed is Chief Meteorological Officer, Mr. Arnold King." |
Carolann Albury | E Bay St, Nassau, The Bahamas | DIRECTOR, BAHAMAS NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (2017) "…thank you all for the assistance you have rendered on so many occasions to The BNGISC but more importantly to The Bahamas." |
Marcus Elten | New York, NY, USA | UNITED NATIONS OCHA (2016) "I was impressed with how quickly you guys developed situational awareness products...quite impressed with your team's work." |
Claudia Mateo | Dominican Republic | PRESIDENT, REPUBLICA DOMINCANA COMISIÓN NACIONAL DE ENERGÍA "Thank you for being aware of our situation and for the sending of images for analysis." |
Paul Ugarte | Guatemala | CONRED SPECIAL ADVISOR TO THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY OF GUATEMALA |
Eric Yarrell | Comayagua, Honduras | LIEUTENANT COLONEL, UNITED STATES AIR FORCE, JTF-BRAVO (2017) "JTF-Bravo sincerely appreciated the HADR decision-support information provided by the Pacific Disaster Center during Hurricane Irma response… has been both timely and valuable support of current operations." |
Augusto Moreno O'Phelan | Peru | DIRECTOR GENERAL FOR POLICY AND STRATEGY, MINISTRY OF DEFENSE, PERU (2016) "Many thanks for your important information about the ongoing outbreak of Zika virus in the Americas." |
Mr. Eliezer Serrano, Jr. | Rio de Janeiro, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil | LEAD DATA FUSION MANAGER, U.S. SOUTHCOM JOINT OPERATIONS CENTER (2016) PDC's support in the SOUTHCOM region and its commitment to promote public safety were unfailing during the Rio Olympics. [DisasterAWARE] greatly enhanced our situational awareness and offered an abundance of useful data and safety monitoring information." |
Don Price | Myanmar (Burma) | DISASTER MANAGEMENT ADVISOR, U.S. FOREST SERVICE, MYANMAR (2017) "The big floods in Southern China are causing some real problems for Vietnam and Myanmar and DMRS/EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) is the best visualization for this regional flood situation." |
Susan Cruz | Philippines | DIRECTOR, OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE (2015) "We are very appreciative of your support to our country." |
Giuseppe Timperio | 21 Lower Kent Ridge Rd, Singapore 119077 | RESEARCH ENGINEER, ADVANCED SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT & HUMANITARIAN LOGISTICS, NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE (2016) "I knew of 'InAWARE' and I am impressed by its capabilities. Information sharing in the humanitarian context is still a big challenge (especially in ASEAN), and the efforts you are putting to close this gap are highly appreciated, and indeed highly useful for the whole humanitarian community." |
Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho | Matraman, East Jakarta City, Jakarta 13120, Indonesia | HEAD OF DATA, INFORMATION, AND PUBLIC RELATIONS FOR INDONESIA'S NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AGENCY, BNPB |
Harlan V. Hale | Banten, Indonesia | REGIONAL ADVISOR, USAID/DCHA/OFDA/EAP "From a disaster management perspective, these agencies [PDC, HOT, PetaBencana.id] have combined their skills, have worked well together, and have created something that is really innovative, useful, and can actually improve both the disaster response by the government and citizen's participation in it as well." |
Willem Rampangilei | Jl. Anyar No.12, RT.2/RW.1, Leuwinutug, Kec. Citeureup, Bogor, Jawa Barat 16810, Indonesia | CHIEF, BNPB "As I mentioned when we met recently at BNPB HQ Jakarta, I want to extend my appreciation to you, to your colleagues at PDC, and to USAID/OFDA for your hard work and dedication – and for your tangible results – in building capabilities and capacities for disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, especially in the area of hazard monitoring and early warning." |
Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho | West Java, Indonesia | HEAD OF DATA, INFORMATION, AND PUBLIC RELATIONS, BNPB (2017) "Thank you very much for your support in Mt Agung eruption. Very useful to us." |
Captain Stephen M. Russell | Hay St, Nassau, The Bahamas | Director, National Emergency Management Agency, The Bahamas (2019) PDC's advanced modeling capabilities and mapped products helped accurately anticipate the nature and extent of impacts from Dorian so that we could protect the most at-risk communities and coordinate life-saving humanitarian relief. These products were used daily in planning and public outreach, and in briefing national officials, including the Prime Minister, to prepare effectively. In addition, PDC team members gathered, analyzed, and disseminated critical information that helped organize crucial emergency support functions with the responsibility for evacuation |
John Marinos | Bangkok, Thailand | Regional Information Management Officer I was specifically asked to pass on to you how everyone was impressed and grateful for the JADE for the Afghanistan scenario. It was exactly what they needed to begin discussions on contingency planning and all that. It of course paves the way for when we need to do one there for real. |
Kevin Miller | Sacramento, CA, USA | Earthquake & Tsunami Program Manager |
John Marinos | Geneva, Switzerland | UNOCHA Information Specialist, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific PDC–United Nations OCHA collaborate on advanced data and science to support humanitarian assistance |