Tropical Cyclone 24S (Ialy) / Invest 93S
Saturday, May 18, 2024

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, May 18, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Ialy) is located approximately 686 NM north of Antananarivo, Madagascar


Northeast Pacific Ocean:

South of the coast of southwestern Mexico

South of the coast of southern Mexico

>>> Disorganized showers located a couple hundred miles to the south of the coast of southern Mexico have diminished today. Environmental conditions in the area have become unfavorable, and development of this system is not expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…near 0 percent

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Ialy)

According to the JTWC Warning number 6…sustained winds were 55 knots, with gusts to near 70 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery shows the system has become more compact as central convection deepened and obscured the previously partially-exposed low level circulation (llc). The initial position is placed with low confidence using low cloud tracing into the obscured llc and extrapolation from the recent storm motion.

Analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with moderate poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate vertical wind shear and cold dry air intrusion at the low levels.

TC Ialy will track more northwestward as the ridge to the west assumes steering. Vertical wind shear and the cold dry air intrusion are expected to increase leading to a gradual decay and eventual dissipation by 48 hours.

South Indian Ocean

Invest 93S

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93S…which is located approximately 303 NM north-northeast of Diego Garcia

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image depicts a disorganized elongated low level closed circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment with high (40-50 knots) vertical wind shear, moderate straight upper-level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global deterministic models are in fair agreement that invest 93S will continue to strengthen in the Indian Ocean over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.