By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no tropical cyclones
Western Pacific Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 01W…which is located approximately 286 NM southeast of Guam
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows a fully exposed low-level circulation (llc) with flairing convection to the southeast of the llcc. A windspeed image shows 15 knot wrapping winds to the north of the llc.
Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions with marginal poleward outflow, moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear over the llcc and warm sea surface temperatures offset by dry air entrainment and strong (25+ knot) vertical wind shear just 30 NM to the north.
Global models are in agreement that the system will have no significant development as it tracks generally westward over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 17 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.