By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank) is located about 625 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette) is located about 1150 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 06W (Songda) is located about 332 NM east-northeast of Kusan AB, Korea
Tropical Cyclone 01S is located about 1295 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank)
FRANK IS NOW A HURRICANE…ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
Frank is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected to occur on Saturday, and that motion should continue for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Frank could be near major hurricane strength this weekend. However, weakening is expected to begin late Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).
Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette)
GEORGETTE POISED TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
Georgette is moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to move on a similar heading with a slower forward speed for the next day or so. After that, Georgette’s forward movement will slow further, resulting in a meandering motion through the weekend. A turn toward the northeast is expected by early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with gradual weakening anticipated after that.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather being investigated by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at the time of this writing
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
Tropical Cyclone 06W (Songda)
According to the JTWC Warning number 5, sustained winds were 30 knots with gusts to near 40 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts consolidating system, with persistent deep convection and improved convective banding over the eastern and southern semicircle. A microwave pass indicates the deep convection is now wrapping into the assessed low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates the system is in a favorable area for development, with warm sea surface temperatures and moderate (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear, which is being offset by vigorous poleward outflow.
As the system weakens and becomes more shallow, it will begin tracking to a more westward direction influenced by a low to mid-level anticyclone poleward of the center which becomes the more dominate steering feature.
After 48 hours, TC 01S will begin to move westward into an environment which will be much less conducive for further development as vertical wind shear increases along with a substantial in flux of dry air. These impeding factors will result in the system deceasing below warning criteria between 72 and 96 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 01S
According to the JTWC Warning number 3, sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to near 50 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts deep persistent convection partially obscuring a low level circulation center.
The system is forecast to track generally southwestward over the next 24 hours in which time the system may reach its projected peak intensity of 45 knots. After 24 hours, the systems upper level outflow will begin to decline, resulting in stagnating intensities as vertical wind shear begins to counteract outflow.
Between 36 and 48 hours, vertical wind shear increases and dry air entrainment begins to add to the systems declining environment. After 48 hours, as the system continues weakening its steering mechanism will translate to the lower level wind field associated with a mid-level anticyclone poleward of the system.
On a generally west-northwestward course the system will begin to move into an environment which will be much less conducive for further development as vertical wind shear increases along with a substantial influx of dry air, until dissipation occurs near 96 hours.
>>> An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 95W is located approximately 318 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with disorganized flaring convection on the periphery of the circulation to the south and to the northeast.
The environment is relatively favorable for development with low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, high sea surface temperatures, but at present outflow is relatively restricted to a weak eastward or poleward flow.
Deterministic and ensemble models are in generally fair agreement the system will track northwest over the next 48-72 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 17 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.